Author: REsurety

Blog Post: REsurety Adds Support for Budgeting to Portfolio Tracker

Budgeting Tab Home

Customers can now easily find forecasted metrics for their PPA and REC budgeting workflows

Authored by Tara Bartley, VP, Marketing, REsurety

Tara Bartley
Tara Bartley
VP, Marketing

As part of the REsurety software platform, Portfolio Tracker was designed specifically for clean energy buyers and investors to forecast, audit, and explain the financial and environmental outcomes of clean energy projects and contracts. It was developed to analyze how wind and solar contracts are performing and what risks they hold; predict how settlement might occur going forward; and to track project and contract-specific carbon emissions and financial performance.

With today’s release of a new budgeting dashboard, customers can easily access forecasted settlement metrics for their contracts, including forecasts for the next month, quarter, the remainder of the current year, and for the following year. Long-term financial settlement forecasts, and forecasts for generation (and associated REC production), are available in the tool as well. Importantly, all of REsurety’s forecasts are Weather-Smart – meaning they take into account the wide range of future weather conditions that can have an immense impact on the price of power. Moreover, Portfolio Tracker automatically accounts for contract terms such as price floors, for example, applying them at the hourly level and aggregating settlement calculations to produce forecasts that are specific to individual renewable energy projects and contracts.*

Portfolio Tracker Budgeting Tab

The budgeting dashboard was designed with our customers’ renewable energy portfolio budgeting workflows foremost in mind and we are excited to help our customers hit their financial and sustainability goals with confidence. Get in touch to learn more about Portfolio Tracker.

*While Portfolio Tracker offers advanced forecasting and auditing capabilities, users should be aware that all projections are subject to uncertainties and potential inaccuracies.

Smart Energy Decisions Renewable Energy Forum – June 12-14, 2024

Smart Energy Decisions Renewable Energy Forum

REsurety is excited to be attending the event in Aventura, FL.

Smart Energy Decisions Renewable Energy Forum 2024
Christine Donohue, Sales Manager

REsurety’s Christine Donohue will be attending the 2024 Smart Energy Decisions Renewable Energy Forum on June 12-14, 2024, in Aventura, Florida. To learn more or get in touch with REsurety, click the button below:

About the forum

The Renewable Energy Forum delivers peer learning, networking, and consultative meetings to energy and sustainability professionals pursuing information and solutions to advance their organization’s renewable energy goals.

Held once a year and produced by Smart Energy Decisions – the first digital resource dedicated to addressing the information needs of large power customers – the Renewable Energy Forum is a valuable step in your emissions reduction journey.

Access the agenda for the event here.

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Policy Brief: Assessing the Impact of Voluntary Actions on the Grid

A Consensus Paper from ZEROgrid’s Impact Advisory Initiative, published by RMI and ZEROgrid

Assessing the Impact of Voluntary Actions on the Grid

Executive Summary

Over the past 10 years, voluntary procurement of clean energy by corporations has been a tremendous driver of renewable energy development. Since 2014, large companies have signed procurement contracts supporting the development of over 70 gigawatts of renewable energy in the United States,1 in addition to purchasing renewable energy certificates (RECs), providing tax equity financing, and advocating regionally and nationally for more clean energy deployment. These voluntary procurement trends are continuing to scale and expand into other markets such as Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan.2

The urgency of the climate crisis is prompting many large energy consumers to consider how they can assess the impact of various actions on grid decarbonization and reliability. Such an assessment can be best made using consequential emissions impact analysis, which employs various approaches to estimate the difference between total global emissions in different possible states of the world.

Although many authors have published on consequential emissions impact analysis, there have been different views and until now no joint statement from differing authors on areas of consensus and how to resolve discrepant conclusions.

To provide greater clarity to corporate actors, ZEROgrid created the Impact Advisory Initiative, or IAI. The IAI comprises a group of expert practitioners from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Princeton University, REsurety, RMI, and WattTime who collectively identified key points of consensus as well as areas requiring further research.i

This paper provides an overview of the IAI’s findings regarding emerging areas of consensus about consequential emissions impact analysis, its implications, and areas where further research is required.

Areas of Consensus:

  1. Defining Impact. The true impact of any voluntary corporate action (or any action) is the difference in total emissions between a world where the action was taken versus one in which it was not taken.
  2. Components of impact. This impact is the sum of several different contributing effects, which must include the effects over the lifetime of the intervention — how an intervention changes the short-run operations of power plants, and structural change, i.e., how it changes the total supply of different power plants in the long run — to fully capture the impact of an action.
  3. Estimates versus true values. The field has a number of ways to produce estimates of total emissions impact and its components. Although there is agreement regarding how changes to short-run operations can be quantified, the field currently lacks — and indeed may always lack — any generally accepted way to empirically verify estimates of structural change. Therefore, any approach that seeks to measure total impact has (potentially significant levels of) uncertainty.

i The ZEROgrid initiative brings together a group of corporate actors, including Akamai, General Motors, HASI, Meta, Prologis, Salesforce, and Walmart, seeking to drive deep decarbonization alongside increased power grid reliability and affordability, working in collaboration with emissions and reliability experts. Additional information is available at https://zerogrid.org/.

Download the policy brief

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View the brief on RMI’s website.

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Q1 2024 State of the Renewables Market Report

A view of Q1 2024 U.S. renewable energy performance

REsurety creates the State of the Renewables Market report every quarter to provide readers with data-driven insight into the value and emerging trends of renewable generation in U.S. power markets. Please fill out the form to access the full report, the Editor’s Note is below.

Editor’s Note:

REsurety's Devon Lukas
Devon Lukas
Lead Analyst
Senior Analyst, Analytics Services
REsurety's Carl Ostridge
Carl Ostridge
Editor
SVP, Analytics Services

Record-Breaking Winter for Solar: Behind The Scenes

Solar output in ERCOT has been in the news as of late, with the buzz around the record-breaking 17.2 GW peak on February 19th amplified by the 18.7 GW peak on March 28th. While impressive, these records are actually not broken as often, or by as much, as one might initially expect given the amount of recent solar buildout. The current generation record would be 300 MW higher were it not for the complex interactions between the weather, transmission infrastructure, and tax incentives.

First, and perhaps most obviously, the weather impacts renewable generation and demand, and when there’s too much of the former and not enough of the latter, renewable projects are curtailed. Net load (total load minus renewable generation) is a useful metric to highlight this behavior. Figure 1 shows solar curtailment as a function of net load for Q1 2024. It’s clear that as net load drops below 20 GW, solar generation starts to be curtailed, increasing quickly as net load reduces further. These grid-wide supply and demand balancing issues that lead to renewable energy curtailment also play out on a local level, caused by transmission constraints. Even if there’s enough demand overall on the grid, if the renewable energy is located behind a transmission constraint, curtailment will still happen. Finally, there’s the tax incentives – wind projects tend to receive the Production Tax Credit (PTC) while solar projects tend to receive the Investment Tax Credit (ITC). Since the PTC is earned on a per megawatt-hour basis, many wind projects continue generating even when wholesale prices are negative. On the other hand, ITC-qualified solar projects will curtail as soon as wholesale prices become negative.

Figure 1: Net Load and Solar Curtailment, January – March 2024. Record-breaking periods shown in blue, missed records shown in green.

So, in terms of setting solar generation records, there needs to be an alignment of these variables – high solar generation potential, relatively low wind generation, relatively high load, and no meaningful transmission constraints. Figure 2 shows two days in February with different conditions and different outcomes. The first is February 19th, when there were favorable conditions and a new record was set – the skies were clear, wind output was low during the day, and net load stayed above 20 GW. A few days later on February 24th, conditions were not as favorable – skies were clear in the morning, but wind output was increasing and net load dropped below 20 GW. This meant solar projects were curtailed and while a new solar generation record 300 MW above the February 19th level could have been set, it was not.

Figure 2: Actual and Uncurtailed Solar and Wind on February 19th, 2024 (left) and February 24th, 2024 (right) Compared to Net Load (load minus actual wind and solar generation).

It’s also important to note the seasonality in these trends. The time of year makes these solar output records more unlikely – the first quarter of the year tends to be windy and load levels are on the low side too. As the summer approaches, wind generation will be lower on average and load will be higher. More solar projects will also likely be commissioned by then, so expect more records to be broken (and perhaps more frequently). Looking further forward, it will be interesting to see if some of the new solar projects elect for Production Tax Credits and therefore start to operate during periods of negative prices. If so, expect even more records to be set.

However, lost generation due to curtailment isn’t all doom and gloom. By definition, renewables make up a large proportion of the grid’s generation during periods of low net load and curtailment. For corporate buyers measuring their impact in emissionality terms, this means the ‘lost’ emissions impact due to curtailment is relatively small – most of that curtailed energy would have displaced other clean fuels (rather than fossil generators). This is especially true during periods of low net load, where high wind generation will keep marginal emissions rates low regardless of the level of solar curtailment. Figure 3 shows the average ERCOT Locational Marginal Emissions rate declining as renewable energy curtailments increase.

Figure 3: Daily Average ERCOT LME (kgCO2e / MWh) and Renewable Energy Curtailment in January, 2024.

As always with power markets, there’s a lot more going on behind the headlines of record breaking solar output.

In addition to downloading the report, you may want to watch a recording of a webinar on the Q1 report that we hosted in May, with the editor, Carl Ostridge, and lead analyst, Devon Lukas. They shared findings, insights, and hosted a live Q&A.

Q1 2024 Report Download

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Webinar Recording: Q1 2024 Quarterly Report Findings, Insight, and Q&A

REsurety logo

REsurety creates the State of the Renewables Market report every quarter to provide readers with data-driven insight into the value and emerging trends of renewable generation in U.S. power markets. We use our domain expertise in power markets, atmospheric science, and renewable offtake to analyze thousands of locations and summarize key findings.

In this webinar, editor Carl Ostridge and lead analyst Devon Lukas discussed the editor’s note, which examined how there’s more than meets the eye when it comes to ERCOT’s record-breaking solar generation. They also unpacked key findings highlighted in the Q1 2024 edition of the report, including recent trends and drivers behind renewable energy value across the U.S.

The session was interactive and there was an extensive Q&A session after the presentation. Watch the recording or read the transcript below.

About the speakers

Carl Ostridge, SVP, Analytics Services

REsurety's Carl Ostridge

Carl Ostridge has more than 15 years of energy experience, specializing in energy risk management, electricity markets, and renewable energy project performance. Prior to joining REsurety, Mr. Ostridge worked for DNV GL analyzing and improving the accuracy of wind farm energy analyses and developing models to predict wind farm energy output. His extensive industry experience and proven analytical skills support REsurety’s industry-leading tools and expertise in weather-related risk and valuation for renewable energy projects.

Mr. Ostridge holds a Master’s degree in Astrophysics from the University of Exeter in the UK.

Devon Lukas, Senior Analyst

REsurety's Devon Lukas

Devon Lukas is a data analyst with experience developing data visualization tools. Before joining REsurety, she conducted undergraduate research on floating offshore wind turbine structures, completed greenhouse gas emission analyses for the Pioneer Valley region of Massachusetts as well as the UMass Mount Ida campus, and developed various computational tools for renewable energy data sources. At REsurety, Devon is part of the pre-trade services team in which she primarily structures and analyzes weather-related risk mitigation contracts for clean energy buyers & sellers.

Devon holds a Bachelor of Science degree with a double major in Physics & Astronomy, and an integrated concentration in Renewable Energy from the University of Massachusetts in Amherst, Massachusetts.

Transcript