Tag: Adam Reeve

Webinar: GHG Protocol Corporate Standards and Guidance Updates

Learn how you can drive impact with proposed revisions to the GHG Protocol Scope 2 Guidance.

REsurety logo
WattTime logo
Amazon logo

Between now and March 14, 2023, the creators of the GHG Protocol are accepting feedback on the accounting standard and how it should be improved. The GHGP has been successful in motivating hundreds of companies and institutions worldwide to invest in renewable energy, but when it comes to its Scope 2 emissions accounting approach, there is a need to refocus the standard on real-world impact.

During this recorded webinar you’ll hear from Faraz Ahmad (Amazon), Adam Reeve (REsurety), and Henry Richardson (WattTime) on a discussion for proposed GHG Protocol updates that drive greater emissions reductions. The session provides an overview of existing electricity accounting approaches, a break down of a new impact-centric approach to carbon accounting that climate advocates worldwide are rallying behind, and a discussion on how sustainability leaders can leverage this approach. There’s also a lengthy interactive Q&A after the presentations.

Watch the full recording below.

About the speakers

Faraz Ahmad, Head of Net Zero Grid @ Amazon

Faraz Ahmad leads Net Zero Electricity at Amazon, part of Amazon’s overall goal of becoming net zero emissions by 2040. Before joining Amazon, Faraz led strategy, business development and M&A functions at NextEra Energy’s Retail division. Faraz’s career has focused on energy, innovation & technology commercialization and corporate strategy. Faraz has built several businesses at GE and NextEra focused on energy generation and optimization in both developed and emerging markets. Faraz is a fellow of the Energy Institute and was previously selected as a Future Energy Leader by the World Energy Council. He holds a Bachelor’s and Master’s degree in Electrical & Information Engineering and Management from Cambridge University and MIT.

Adam Reeve, SVP of Software Solutions @ REsurety

Adam Reeve

Adam Reeve is a mechanical engineer and data scientist with a strong interest in the rapidly evolving renewable energy landscape. Before joining the REsurety team, he worked for a proprietary trading firm specializing in quantitative analysis of energy markets. His deep experience in data-driven analysis, model building, risk assessment and data visualization support REsurety’s analytical approach to quantifying and managing the weather-linked revenue risks of wind power projects. Mr. Reeve holds a Bachelor’s degree in Mechanical Engineering and Political Science from Yale College, with a focus on energy and environmental studies. He graduated with distinction in both majors.

Henry Richardson, Senior Analyst @ WattTime

As a senior analyst at WattTime, Henry enables partners and collaborators to understand how they can affect the electric grid and achieve greater reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, whether through location-based renewables siting (Emissionality) or by incorporating load flexibility into their solutions. Henry specializes in carbon accounting, building performance, emissions-focused load shifting, and energy storage integration. Prior to joining WattTime, Henry was a Senior Environmental Designer at Atelier Ten where he focused on high performance building design including daylighting, energy, water, and materials.

REsurety’s Weather-Smart Fundamentals Power Price Forecasts are Now Available

Solar Wind Energy
Adam Reeve
Adam Reeve
SVP of Software Solutions

Here at REsurety, we know how important accurate forecasting is. We know that our customers need credible, explainable predictions of the expected value and upside/downside risks of the value of clean energy in order to make long-term investment or procurement decisions. And for that reason, for the better part of the last ten years, our team has been developing and improving upon long-term power price and renewable generation forecasting models. Up until now, however, those forecasts have relied on machine-learning methods and have only been available on a limited basis to customers via our Advisory services. We’re excited to announce that as of today, we have released a new fundamentals forecasting model, and are making it available across all of our product and service offerings including our SaaS platform, REmap.

REsurety developed our latest fundamentals forecasts in order to give our customers unprecedented ease of access and confidence about the future value of their clean energy projects. With these newly released forecasts, you can:

  • Develop an optimal portfolio: simulate portfolio performance under a range of outcomes to develop/manage your portfolio.
  • Calculate project-specific forecasts: all of our forecasts are natively calculated using project-specific hourly generation, so you can calculate the expected performance of your project with one click in REmap.
  • Stress test: gain visibility into downside risk driven by weather variability or changes in market dynamics, e.g. increased storage penetration, a hot summer/winter, or the impact of high renewables build out.

The Importance of Weather Variability

The most distinguishing characteristic of REsurety’s forecasts is that we don’t just model a single weather-normal year (e.g., an 8760), because we know that models based on 8760s will likely overestimate value for renewables, underestimate value for storage, and underestimate variability across all projects. Instead, we simulate ~40 years of representative hourly weather – and the impact that has on every project and load center on the grid – to develop a thorough distribution of possible weather outcomes. Importantly, this means that hourly project-specific generation is an input into our model, as opposed to being calculated after the fact.

This extremely data-intensive and compute-hungry approach is designed to give customers the answers that they need about the future. Users can: run sophisticated portfolio simulations across projects and markets using realistic and consistent weather inputs; confidently calculate the value of storage, where profitability is highest during periods of extreme weather and market volatility; and calculate the expected value and downside risk in their PPAs for accurate budgeting.

Unlike traditional forecast providers, REsurety’s fundamentals-based forecasts realistically take into account a range of possible weather conditions and the impact that they have on each project in order to solve for power prices in each hour. The plot below shows the value of the approach: for each of the five market scenarios, 40 representative weather-years (represented by thin lines) are simulated in the model. We’re calling this realistic approach to weather variability “Weather-Smart.”

The value of full weather distributions: weather and various market scenarios drive variability in the capture rate for solar generators.

“We’re excited to bring together our strengths in Atmospheric Science and Power Market Analytics in this model release,” said Adam Reeve, SVP of Software Solutions at REsurety. “Traditionally, those two fields have been separate in the industry, limiting the ability for customers to apply forecasts to their clean energy projects or portfolios. This Weather-Smart approach gives users a much more robust way of forecasting the value of clean energy.”

Why A Fundamentals Model?

REsurety’s newest forecasts leverage an hourly production cost model that accurately represents the operational and market design complexities of the power markets. It takes into account the physical power flows, hourly generation from each renewable plant, hourly load, and future market conditions inputs to solve for hourly power prices. As an example, this means that, in each hour, we model the generation at every renewable plant on the grid (based on localized wind speeds / solar irradiance, turbine / panel type, etc.) as well as production costs for dispatchable generators. We also model load in each hour, as well as the transmission limitations of the grid and other market-specific characteristics. Given these inputs and constraints, we then solve for power prices in the same way that a system operator (such as ERCOT) would.

After years of creating advanced models, we’ve learned that such a rigorous approach has a number of advantages over machine-learning (ML) models. Specifically, ML models struggle to make accurate predictions about a future that may look very different from the recorded history – such as predicting price formation in a market with a rapidly changing installed base of grid-scale storage. Results from ML models are less interpretable, making it harder for customers to understand why a certain price was produced – and by extension whether it is reasonable or not. Lastly, ML approaches are less capable of accurately simulating how changes to market rules or regulatory policies will impact prices. For these reasons, REsurety has invested in the latest fundamentals-based model that we’re excited to release today.

REsurety’s Weather-Smart fundamentals power price forecasts are currently available in ERCOT, with CAISO available later this year and full market coverage by mid 2023.

To learn more, please visit http://resurety.com/remap or email [email protected].

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