Historically, REmap has leveraged market-based forward curves to offer 20 years of forecasted generation-weighted power prices at every deregulated hub in the U.S. This market-based forecasting approach uses forward curves derived from bilateral market transactions to determine the expected value of power in future years.
In the coming months, REmap’s forecasting feature will transition to a much more robust, fully fundamentals-based price forecasting approach that leverages a production cost power market model and REsurety’s modeling of hourly, site-specific generation that has been refined over the last decade. As we transition to this model for all ISOs, a hybrid approach – utilizing elements of each forecast type, both market-based and fundamentals-based – is now available and displays up to 15 years of forecasted generation-weighted hub power prices in ERCOT. Notably, this feature now allows users to see distributions of power price outcomes in each future month based on different weather and gas price scenarios.
In response to customer demand, REsurety has added Locational Marginal Pricing (LMP) data to the REmap API to support customers who need a more programmatic way to access price data or to access price data for price locations that aren’t currently available in the REmap interface.
Previously, hourly LMP data access was limited to download through the REmap interface, which allows users to download a price time series for any operational wind or solar project with just a few clicks. Now, with the release of the LMP API, users can also access data more programmatically, for more locations, and with lower latency. LMP price data is available through the API for 50,000+ price locations and as soon as 24 hours after prices have been published.
REmap users can now diligence how the frequency and magnitude of negative price events align with renewable generation, providing insight into the impact of any non-settlement below a price floor. For example, developers or offtakers can see how large a cash payment would need to be, or how much a PPA price would need to change, in order to cover revenues impacted due to non-settlement below a price floor. In addition, a developer could use this data to inform a pipeline development strategy and compare across multiple ISOs or regions to see how much difference there is across resource profiles and markets.
To access this feature, users will see an option appear to “Show Negative Price” when they’ve selected AsGen under price type (Image 1a), or when Generation or Revenue is selected. Simply select this option and the map and project explorer will adjust to filter for intervals where hourly prices were negative. Image 1b shows how the percentage of actual generation that occurred during negative intervals has changed over time. This feature is available for all 14,000+ wind and solar projects across operating and synthetic project types.