Category: Blog

In case you missed it: Our Insights from ‘Navigating Volatility: The Shift Toward Transparency in the US PPA Market’

Navigating Volatility - recap of REsurety x S&P Webinar

by Emma Marjollet, Customer Success Manager, REsurety

Owen Glubiak (VP, Market Development, REsurety Markets) introduces CleanTrade, a CFTC-registered platform, at our February 5th collaborative webinar with S&P Global Energy.

The US clean energy market has reached a critical maturity point, with upwards of 350 GW of operational capacity. However, this growth is colliding with extreme price volatility and policy uncertainty. 

To meet this moment, S&P Global Energy Platts has partnered with REsurety to provide daily price assessments powered by CleanTrade transaction data, providing the real-time transparency necessary to navigate today’s market complexity.

We kicked things off with a webinar detailing how this can be transformative for the industry, where S&P Global Energy’s Associate Director of Price Reporting Annalisa Jeffries put it best: “In today’s volatile market, you can no longer ‘set it and forget it.’ Transparent, daily price signals are the only way for buyers and developers to accurately price risk amid shifting policy and congestion.” 

While corporate procurement continues to accelerate at a 30% CAGR, the industry is hampered by “pre-2000s” workflows – think fragmented emails, opaque pricing– that lead to capital slippage and nine-month deal cycles. The central takeaway from our discussion is clear: to sustain momentum, the industry must transition from manual deal-making to a more transparent, data-driven transaction infrastructure that meets the market where it is today.  

What we learned:

Policy Pressures & the ‘Construction Cliff’:

Shifting federal policies are fundamentally altering clean energy project economics. The OBBB (One Big Beautiful Bill) deadline of July 4, 2026, is a primary pressure point, requiring projects to commence physical construction to qualify for full tax credits. This “safe-harbor” race injects timing risk and forces developers to negotiate Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) after making major CAPEX decisions.

Surging Demand vs. Supply-Side Headwinds:

Massive demand from AI and data centers is reshaping PPA volumes, with hyperscalers leading multi-GW procurements. “In 2025, 80% of the corporate procurement in terms of volumes that were announced were actually from hyperscalers—in particular, the four largest hyperscalers,” noted Bruno Brunetti, Head of Renewable Revenue Streams at S&P Global Energy Horizons. Conversely, supply is hampered by transmission congestion and interconnection queues. While solar and Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) are surging, onshore wind outlooks have weakened due to local opposition and early tax credit sunsetting.

The Rising Cost of De-Risking:

PPA prices are trending upward across all ISOs. Developers are now factoring in a $2-3/MWh premium to comply with Foreign Entity of Concern (FEOC) rules and new tariffs as they de-risk their supply chains. In active markets like ERCOT, solar as-generated hedge prices have seen a $10/MWh
year-over-year increase.

The Rise of Short-Term PPAs:

As more projects roll off their original contracts from the early 2010s era, many developers are left holding financial risk from merchant capacity. Combined with the surging demand from the buying community, 1-5 year PPAs for operational projects have become an increasingly effective tool.

Digital Trading, meet Renewables:

Developers, traders, and corporate buyers require a 21st century risk management tool to separate the ‘signal’ from the ‘noise’ to meet their goals. To support this, S&P Global Energy Platts has partnered with REsurety to provide daily price assessments powered by CleanTrade—the first and only CFTC-registered Swap Execution Facility (SEF) for as-generated clean energy. Additionally, this shift provides the real-time, verifiable data needed to move beyond the “Rolodex” era of trading.

It’s clear the clean energy market has reached a tipping point where speed must meet the scale, and CleanTrade by REsurety is the solution.

Watch Full Replay of Webinar Today:

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Basis Risk can Sink Projects and PPAs

Navigating the Hub-Node Gap with Creative Contracting.

There is no single price of electricity in the United States. While the price of a barrel of oil is set nationally, electricity is set locally – and fluctuates based on grid mix, time of day, and many other factors in a given region. As we’ve discussed in our Forecasting Webinar and our recent blog on the impacts of Venezuelan oil on clean energy prices, all energy market dynamics are interrelated. So when it comes to deciding whether to build or invest in a clean energy project like a solar or wind farm, the difference in electricity prices by region, and volatility in price over time, make all the difference for project success.

What do local price dynamics have to do with a solar farm’s ability to pay back its loans over time? The devil is in the details. And the details are called basis risk.

Background: The US electricity system’s hub + node structure

The US electricity system is made up of tens of thousands of nodes, where load and generation connect to transmission and distribution lines to form a giant, interconnected grid. A node may be a single solar plant, a collection of gas turbines, a datacenter, or a substation feeding thousands of homes. Each of these nodes has its own power price. 

Groups of nodes are organized into hubs. Hubs are virtual trading points, where the price is the average of all the nodes within the hub. (An example of a hub)

Most power purchase agreements (PPAs), where corporates or utilities agree to long-term contracts to buy power, are settled at the hub. Every month, the contract is settled by calculating how much money the developer would have made from selling their power to the grid at the hub price, how much money the developer is  guaranteed by the PPA signed with a corporate or utility buyer, and “settling” the difference. If market prices were low one month at that hub, the buyer sends the developer money to get them to their guaranteed PPA revenue. If prices were high one month, the developer sends the buyer the extra money that came in the door.

In this article, we’ll walk-through an example of a real project and make the math behind settling clear. We’ll show how risk is shared between developers and buyers, and how to share risk to increase success. 

This article is the first in a series. Sign up to read on:

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Maturing the Market: Clean Energy’s ‘Wall Street’ Moment

From the Inbox to the Screen

Authored by Owen Glubiak, Vice President of Business Development, REsurety

Financial trading is all about speed and accuracy. That used to look like the chaos of physical pits – think equities and futures trading a la Wolf of Wall Street – and has since moved to the silent efficiency of screens decades ago.

However, the clean energy market, one of the most critical sectors of the modern economy, remains stuck in a workflow that feels decades old. While artificial intelligence evangelists are talking about the end of the email era, clean energy is still stuck in an era marked by “scrolling down to read from the bottom” of the email chain, spreadsheets, and lengthy Request for Proposal (RFP) processes.

For a clean energy project developer or a company looking to purchase clean energy from a developer, getting a deal done is notoriously slow. A typical Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) can take nine months or more to close. Even hedging an operational project—a task that should be routine—can drag on for months. From experience, we know most of that time is spent waiting for a reply to an email or a phone call.

In the “Email Era”, trading was a relationship game. In the emerging “Screen Era”, trading is an information game. The transition from manual RFPs to screen-based digital execution isn’t just about saving time; it is about bringing financial efficiency and data-driven intelligence to a market that desperately needs it. REsurety saw this firsthand after years working as a trade advisor to the world’s top clean energy companies. And given the $16B in notional value ready to transact on CleanTrade in just two months, others felt this pain too.


The best deal might not be within your network.

The current state of clean energy trading is defined by limitation. When a project needs to secure a hedge, the “market” is often just the handful of contacts in the treasurer’s phone: the bank that holds the project loan, a retailer they worked with on a previous deal, or a commodity trader met at a conference last year.

This insulation creates two major problems:

  1. Price Opacity: Without a centralized marketplace, there is no way to know if the price in your inbox is actually a “good” price. You are negotiating in a vacuum, limited to the three or four data points you could manually gather.
  2. Liquidity fragmentation: You might be willing to buy, and a counterparty you’ve never met might be willing to sell at a better price, but because you aren’t in each other’s “Rolodex,” the deal never happens.


CleanTrade expands your access to ensure the best deal flow.

Moving this workflow to a digital, screen-based platform (like CleanTrade) changes the fundamental physics of the transaction. It transforms a process that takes months of sequential emails into a parallel, digital workflow.

While the reduction in time—collapsing months of negotiation into weeks or days—is the most obvious benefit, the “deep value” lies in the strategic advantages that come with seeing the whole board.

CleanTrade moves clean energy from tired inboxes to efficient engines

The Future of Clean Energy Trading

As the US clean energy market scales, it cannot afford to rely on the manual, opaque workflows of the past. And investors can’t afford to waste dollars on clean energy deals that don’t meet their goals. 

The sector requires the ease, transparency, and efficiency that only digital trading can provide. By moving from the inbox to a screen-based marketplace, we aren’t just saving time; we are building a more efficient, competitive, and robust market for clean energy.

At REsurety, we are driving this evolution.

To learn more about how we are modernizing the way clean energy is traded, explore CleanTrade here.

Team Member Spotlight: Greg Caggiano Joins REsurety to Support the Full Clean Energy Buying Journey

Greg Caggiano
Sales Director, Clean Energy Buyers

“My career has been defined by helping teams navigate uncertainty.” 

We are pleased to introduce our new Sales Director, Greg Caggiano. We had a chance to sit down with Greg to learn his approach to the clean energy industry and REsurety’s unique value add to customers. As Greg put it, “Navigating the clean energy market is a complex and ever-evolving process. With the rapid increase in demand for power, the potential for innovation and growth for the clean energy industry has never been greater.” 

In his role as Sales Director – Clean Energy Buyers, Greg’s mission is to help buyers – from corporate PPA purchasers to local municipalities – increase efficiency and certainty through every stage of their clean energy journey, while growing their portfolios alongside the growing industry.

A Foundation in Service and Innovation

Greg’s knack for navigating complex systems began in the U.S. Air Force, where he served as a Communications and Information Systems Officer after graduating from the Air Force Academy. He built a solid foundation of leadership and technical discipline that followed him to the private sector, where he spent over a decade in multiple roles across energy, technology, and innovation. 
Greg’s impressive career includes experience at Aspen Aerogels, Navigant/Guidehouse, Power Advocate, and most recently, Franklin Energy. He further solidified this innovative resume by earning a master’s degree from Babson College, where he was drawn to their passion for innovation and entrepreneurship.

Whether he was consulting on utility supply chains or delivering complex SaaS solutions, Greg has always focused on bringing a positive mindset to help customers solve the “complexity of all sorts of different energy questions.”

“All Hands on Deck” for Impact

Greg cites the sheer need for more power solutions, along with the desire for visibility, efficiency, and expertise in the space, as a key driver in his role. “Not only is clean energy important, but we see what data centers are doing to baseload demand: it’s really increasing rapidly with no signs of letting up. Building out the capacity to meet demand will be a huge challenge. We’re going to need all hands on deck to get to the energy infrastructure we need for the foreseeable future. REsurety brings a tool to the market that helps its customers make smart investing decisions informed by these market trends: its products are cost-effective, forecasts are accurate, and expert teams are the best in the business…”Greg was specifically drawn to REsurety’s ability to de-risk the clean energy market and bring price certainty to buyers. He sees our CleanTrade platform as the ultimate tool for end-to-end optimization, moving buyers through every step of the transaction process. “It’s a gamechanger to not only help our customers strategize and manage – but also execute.”

Life Outside the Grid

Greg brings this contagious energy and expert mindset to his hobbies outside the office, where he is an avid golfer, boater, fisherman, and enjoys cooking. If you get the chance to connect with him, be sure to ask him about his time scuba diving at the New England Aquarium’s famous ‘Giant Ocean Tank’ – alongside sharks and Boston’s beloved sea turtle. 

Please join us in welcoming Greg!

What will U.S. Intervention in Venezuela Mean for Clean Energy Prices?

Venezuela Oil Impact On Clean Energy

REsurety policy experts weigh in.

We’ve been monitoring the 2026 Venezuela intervention closely to understand its impact on domestic natural gas markets. 

Why? 

Because the price of crude oil ripples through the entire energy complex, ultimately dictating the financial health of renewable energy contracts. 

Let us take a moment to explain. 

Global oil production has an indirect yet significant influence on gas availability—specifically through “associated gas” produced in U.S. oil fields. A natural byproduct of drilling for oil is natural gas – It’s a “package deal”—you can’t extract the oil without releasing the gas. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), this byproduct now accounts for approximately 40% of total U.S. natural gas production.

This vast supply of low-cost associated gas serves as the primary fuel source for the thermal plants that set the market-clearing price for power. Because electricity prices are so tightly coupled to these fuel costs, any fluctuation in the natural gas market—driven by global oil trends—becomes a primary driver of long-term power price forecasts, including WeatherSmart forecasts like REsurety’s.

How the ramp up of oil production takes place in Venezuela will make a difference for the future of the clean energy market by shifting the economics of producing, selling, or buying PPAs. 

While change is coming, it’s not arriving overnight. According to recent analysis from Rystad Energy (January 2026), returning Venezuela to its peak production of 3 million barrels per day would require a staggering $183 billion in investment and would not be fully realized until 2040.

REsurety has created three scenarios about future energy prices in the new world order, what this means for clean energy, and trigger moments to watch for along the way – read on to learn more.

What will U.S. Intervention in Venezuela Mean for Clean Energy Prices?

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Are Your Carbon Emissions Goals at Risk?

On December 1, REsurety and WattTime will launch a calculator to help organizations understand how their current renewable claims and goals may be impacted by proposed changes to Scope 2 energy procurement methodology.

Output from forthcoming REsurety & WattTime calculator tool. Will your current procurement cover your load under proposed rule updates by the GHGP?

The Greenhouse Gas Protocol (GHGP) writes the rules that govern close to 97% of the corporate world’s clean energy purchasing and reporting. For the first time in ten years, they are opening the books for a rewrite.

Two options are on the table, and the public is invited to share their opinion on both before December 19. But the two options offer wildly different views into the future: one that is focused on making sure we can track the exact source of the energy being sent to power corporate headquarters (hourly matching), and one that is focused on making sure corporations have the most impact with the dollars they spend (consequential accounting).

Download the white paper to find out. Check back on December 1 for access to the full calculator so you can see plan for future procurement, no matter the outcome of the GHGP’s vote.


Using the calculator tool, this case study walks through a real-world example of CleanCo’s energy future: budget, impact, and strategy.

Download a copy to see what proposed Scope 2 changes could mean for your company.

Carbon Accounting Calculator

Download the case study.

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ERCOT’s RTC+B: A Multi-Billion Dollar Upgrade for Texas Energy Buyers

A landmark shift has arrived in the Texas wholesale electricity market. 

ERCOT’s Real-Time Co-optimization plus Batteries (RTC+B), which went live on December 5, 2025, brings batteries into the pricing conversation for the first time. This market design is expected to translate into lower prices and more reliability for energy consumers by helping the grid more efficiently reflect supply and demand from a variety of energy production sources.

Here is a breakdown of what the RTC+B changes mean for you as an energy buyer or investor.

What RTC+B Means: The Promise of Lower Costs, Backed by Data

Smarter Pricing, Lower Volatility

If you take away nothing else from this post, remember that RTC+B is the simultaneous co-optimization of both energy and Ancillary Services. Ancillary Services are core operating functions that make the grid run efficiently, like voltage or frequency control through transmission wires, back-up power supply, and more – including batteries. 

By combining the energy itself and the support functions that make the energy flow efficiently, ERCOT can have the flexibility to dispatch resources in real-time – especially batteries – to respond to moment-to-moment shifts in demand.

A Shift in Scarcity Pricing

Until now, ERCOT has used a typical Operating Reserve Demand Curve (ORDC) for pricing, which implements price changes as energy resources on the grid are scarce. Producers of energy who were ready to go online in the case where supply dipped, like batteries, were compensated for it; energy users (demand-side) were incentivized to use less energy or risk paying higher prices. However, this didn’t take into account the difference in value for each of these back-up solutions.

Now, this ORDC for scarcity pricing is being replaced with individual Ancillary Service Demand Curves (ASDCs). These ASDCs create a demand curve for each specific type of ancillary service, showing the value of each of these solutions to grid stability. For the first time, batteries are being incorporated into the bidding process – which could change the game.

Projected Cost Savings

The shift is expected to deliver massive economic benefits. ERCOT’s Independent Market Monitor (IMM) has projected wholesale market savings of $2.5-$6.4 billion annually in reduced energy costs.

The Battery Revolution is Integrated for Stability

The “plus Batteries” (RTC+B) component is a major win for grid reliability and flexibility, benefiting every buyer.

For the first time, Energy Storage Resources (ESRs), like large-scale batteries, are fully integrated and modeled as a single device with a state-of-charge. This allows the real-time market to capture their full capability—both charging (consuming power when it’s cheap and plentiful) and discharging (injecting power during times of peak demand).

This will benefit renewable integration – faster, smarter responses to the uncertainty that comes along with solar and wind power are easier to manage when their generation is combined with backup power from batteries. Better asset utilization can lead to a reduction in total system costs by preventing the wasteful curtailment of clean, free solar power. This means short-term weather events, such as an early sunset or unexpected drops in wind, won’t be as much of an issue.

Natural gas is expensive during peak hours, and making it easier to shift towards cheaper renewable resources in real-time with the support of batteries will mean a more resilient grid.

What does this mean for Battery Players?

It’s unclear yet how this story will impact long-term battery revenue opportunities. On the one hand, it could be positive for the points shared above: batteries are finally getting their moment in the sun (pun intended). 

But others wonder: if batteries are no longer as scarce, and there is no longer as much volatility in the market thanks to these stabilizing mechanisms, the price for storage / batteries will be impacted (i.e., they aren’t called on as the reserve as often, where they could command premium prices).

In Summary for Buyers

The RTC+B project is a generational leap for the ERCOT market – and we’ve been baking this into our forecasts for a while. REsurety forecasts model this new change under a wide range of scenarios to help you develop a comprehensive view of changing asset or contract values in this new RTC+B world.

For the energy buyer, this successful implementation should deliver key results: increased grid reliability and lower total costs to the system.

  • Lower Total Costs: Driven by multi-billion-dollar projected market savings through more efficient dispatch, smarter scarcity pricing, and optimized resource utilization. Coupled with the story of rising demand and straining supply potentially pushing prices higher, prices for batteries might rise, but the system should see lower total costs.
  • Increased Grid Reliability: All else equal, RTC+B stands to deliver on this goal. Skyrocketing load may impact grid reliability overall, but this will certainly cushion the blow.

With the emergence of these more evolved bidding strategies and the ability to recommit batteries in the real-time, storage investors may be able to expect the way batteries make money to change yet again. All in, from a contracting perspective – buyers exploring the market will want to take a look at hybrid vs. standalone project dynamics, and consider Day-Ahead/Real-Time Spreads when determining strategy.

REsurety’s CleanTrade Platform Hits a Major Milestone: $16 Billion in Notional Value Ready to Transact

The clean energy market is ready for deals.

In just two months of operation since CFTC approval, CleanTrade has scaled rapidly, reaching a remarkable $16 billion in notional value ready to transact on the platform.

With accelerating deployment of clean energy in the near-term and an operating fleet that has just surpassed 300GW of installed capacity, the need for transaction infrastructure that enables price transparency, expands the deal pool for participants, and provides assurance through CFTC compliance has never been greater. 

A key driver of initial growth of activity on CleanTrade has been the demand from existing VPPA buyers to pursue budget certainty.  For companies that own VPPAs as part of their clean energy portfolios, they often hold the contract for 10 – 15 years and are locked into paying a set price for the energy as it is generated over the agreement’s lifetime.

During that period, however, the monthly settlement price fluctuates, creating volatility that can be a source of P&L headache. The lack of options for efficient and effective risk management in the short-term, through hedges or swaps, has forced owners to hold when they could be creating value from their VPPA portfolio.

With CleanTrade, clean energy buyers can now see the pricing available to them to achieve budget certainty – and have the ability to transact with confidence and speed.

The growth of CleanTrade makes it clear that the clean energy market wants a better way to get deals done: the industry has outgrown its opaque and relationship-based history, based on emailing spreadsheets or late-night conference calls.

CleanTrade streamlines this entire workflow, from sourcing bids and offers to evaluating transaction value and risk, executing transactions, reporting for Dodd-Frank compliance and managing post-transaction contract performance, all within a single, regulated platform. It’s designed to bring the same level of liquidity, transparency, and confidence to clean energy trading that traditional energy markets have long enjoyed through platforms like Intercontinental Exchange (ICE).

“CleanTrade’s rapid adoption and the $16 billion in notional value ready to transact in just 60 days underscore the urgent need and strong demand for a true transactional marketplace. By providing enhanced price transparency and liquidity, CleanTrade is poised to expand who can transact in clean energy markets, reduce transaction time, and accelerate the deployments of clean electricity capacity that the United States and global economy demand,” said Owen Glubiak, VP, Business Development for CleanTrade.

Want to join the platform? Reach out to see how CleanTrade fits into your company’s energy strategy

WattTime and REsurety launch free Scope 2 carbon calculator that compares renewable energy claims under hourly matching and impact accounting frameworks

REsurety & WattTime impact calculator
REsurety & WattTime logos

With the Greenhouse Gas Protocol’s public comment period now underway, the tool provides corporate stakeholders with straightforward answers on how newly proposed Scope 2 accounting guidelines will directly affect their renewable energy claims.

Boston, MA and OAKLAND, CA – December 1, 2025 – Environmental tech nonprofit WattTime and REsurety, leading provider of software, services, and marketplace solutions empowering the future of energy, today launched a free, easy-to-use Scope 2 accounting calculator. With the tool, companies can see how their reported and real-world Scope 2 greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions totals would compare under the hourly matching framework recently proposed by the Greenhouse Gas Protocol (GHGP) and an impact accounting approach like the one recommended by its Technical Working Group Consequential Subgroup. It also shows the cost implications for achieving higher emissions reductions under either framework.

The tool provides critical insights and much-needed clarity as corporate clean energy buyers and other key decision makers engage in the GHGP’s public comment period, which closes on December 19, 2025.

The core GHGP Scope 2 public proposal includes a local-only hourly matching requirement for inventory accounting, along with a separate proposal for reporting non-supply chain actions using an impact (consequential) approach. These revised guidelines are expected to change not only how organizations report on their emissions, but also incentivize different procurement behaviors as companies attempt to reach ambitious clean energy and climate goals.

Today, however, these proposed guidelines remain largely theoretical to most organizations. Stakeholders need a clear and comprehensive understanding of how GHGP Scope 2 changes will directly affect them. WattTime and REsurety created this carbon calculator to fill that gap. In addition, they designed the tool to look beyond what is included in the GHGP’s public consultation for voluntary impact accounting — which only looks at clean energy procurement — to calculate the impact of all activity, including power consumption, to better enable target setting and tracking.

“With the Greenhouse Gas Protocol’s Scope 2 public comment period underway, and on the heels of COP30, this tool is coming at a critical moment,” said Gavin McCormick, founder and executive director at WattTime. “Our hope is that it helps drive the conversations companies are already having about how they can make the biggest possible climate difference, anchored by facts and tailored to their priorities.”

With an impact accounting framework based on comparing induced and avoided emissions, companies track the additional emissions reductions that result from their portfolio investments, making decisions based on the most impactful times and places to generate, procure, and consume electricity. 

On the other hand, a local-only hourly matching framework requires companies to match their electricity loads on an hourly basis using renewable energy sources on the same grid as the company’s original consumption.

“Corporate energy buyers are making big decisions today that will shape clean energy markets for decades to come,” said Lee Taylor, CEO of REsurety. “This tool provides much-needed visibility into the trade-offs between two leading approaches, so they can make informed decisions during the public comment period.”

To use the free Scope 2 accounting calculator, visit calculator.gridemissionsdata.io. If you are interested in learning more about the tool and how it can help your organization engage throughout the GHGP’s open comment period, email [email protected].


About REsurety

REsurety is the leading provider of data, software, and services to the clean energy economy, and operates the only transactional marketplace for clean power. Trusted by the industry’s leading buyers, sellers, and investors, REsurety’s proprietary data models, powerful technology platforms, and deep domain expertise empower confident, impactful decision-making and efficient, effective portfolio management. For more information, visit resurety.com or follow REsurety on LinkedIn.

About WattTime

WattTime is an environmental tech nonprofit that empowers all people, companies, policymakers, and countries to slash emissions and choose cleaner energy. Founded by UC Berkeley researchers, we develop data-driven tools and policies that increase environmental and social good. During the energy transition from a fossil-fueled past to a zero-carbon future, WattTime ‘bends the curve’ of emissions reductions to realize deeper, faster benefits for people and planet. Learn more at www.WattTime.org.

Contact

Nikki Arnone and Logan Varsano

Inflection Point Agency for REsurety and WattTime
[email protected]

[email protected]

REsurety Expands Partnership with S&P Global Energy to Drive Clean Energy Price Transparency

Boston, MASS. – October 27, 2025 – REsurety, the leading provider of software, services, and marketplace solutions empowering the future of energy, today announced it has expanded its strategic alliance with S&P Global Energy, the leading independent provider of information, data, analysis, benchmark prices and workflow solutions for the commodities markets, to develop innovative solutions and tools to support clean energy markets. The companies aim to build on both the greater transparency, standardization, and liquidity that REsurety’s CleanTrade platform brings to the rapidly expanding clean energy markets, as well as the data-licensing and insights collaboration that facilitated the September 2023 launch of first-of-kind price assessments for emissions-adjusted renewable energy certificates (RECs) by Platts, part of S&P Global Energy.

Under the expanded agreement, S&P Global Energy will have exclusive access to the transactional data of REsurety’s cutting-edge CleanTrade platform, with the purpose of exploring development of spot market price assessments for power purchase agreements (PPAs) and other clean energy instruments. CleanTrade, a testament to REsurety’s leadership and commitment to market integrity, is the only transaction platform to have received approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), underscoring its reliability and robust framework as a mark of trust in the clean energy sector.

“We are thrilled to partner with S&P Global Energy to advance the development of additional clean energy pricing benchmarks,” said Lee Taylor, CEO of REsurety. “Expanded collaboration marks another significant step towards creating more mature and accessible markets for clean energy. By combining our specialized analytics and the proven capabilities of our CleanTrade marketplace with S&P Global Energy extensive experience in price assessment methodologies and bringing transparency to evolving marketplaces, we are well-positioned to provide the industry with the tools necessary to accelerate the transition to a sustainable future.”

Brian Casey, Head of Markets Strategy & Partnership, S&P Global Energy, commented, “The demand for reliable and transparent clean energy data and insights is growing exponentially. Our strengthened partnership with REsurety opens the door to further exploration and potential innovation of additional market pricing solutions that enable market participants to better understand, value, and manage risks associated with clean energy assets.”

REsurety and S&P Global Energy look forward to further engaging with the marketplace to understand unique market-specific pricing challenges and collaborate to help bring transparency to markets and to help innovate solutions that meet the needs and complexities of renewable energy markets.


About REsurety

REsurety is the leading provider of data, software, and services to the clean energy economy, and operates the only transactional marketplace for clean power. Trusted by the industry’s leading buyers, sellers, and investors, REsurety’s proprietary data models, powerful technology platforms, and deep domain expertise empower confident, impactful decision-making and efficient, effective portfolio management. For more information, visit resurety.com or follow REsurety on LinkedIn.

About S&P Global Energy

At S&P Global Energy, our complete view of global energy and commodity markets enables our customers to make decisions with conviction and create long-term, sustainable value. 

We’re a trusted connector that brings together thought leaders, market participants, governments, and regulators and we create solutions that lead to progress. Vital to navigating commodity markets, our coverage includes oil and gas, power, chemicals, metals, agriculture, shipping and energy transition. Platts® products and services, including leading benchmark price assessments in the physical commodity markets, are offered through S&P Global Energy. S&P Global Energy maintains clear structural and operational separation between its price assessment activities and the other activities carried out by S&P Global Energy and the other business divisions of S&P Global.   

S&P Global Energy is a division of S&P Global (NYSE: SPGI). S&P Global is the world’s foremost provider of credit ratings, benchmarks, analytics and workflow solutions in the global capital, commodity and automotive markets. With every one of our offerings, we help many of the world’s leading organizations navigate the economic landscape so they can plan for tomorrow, today. For more information visit https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights

Contact

Nikki Arnone, Inflection Point Agency for REsurety
[email protected]

Scope 2 Is Changing. Here’s What That Could Mean for Your Clean Energy Strategy

Authored by Adam Reeve, SVP, Customer Experience, REsurety

Adam Reeve
Adam Reeve
SVP,
Customer Experience

Scope 2 rules are changing, and the ripple effects will hit every corner of the clean energy market. If the current trajectory continues, buyers will face higher costs to meet their goals. Developers may need to structure offtake contracts differently. Investors will likely be asking new questions about value and risk.

When accounting rules change in any market, the effects cascade through all market participants – starting with the companies doing the accounting, but rippling through everyone in the value chain. REsurety’s data and analytics bring clarity to clean energy contract value and risks under a range of accounting rules, so you are working from a clear foundation no matter how the market evolves.

Now let’s take a closer look at the potential changes coming to Scope 2 accounting — and what’s at stake for your business.

Understanding the upcoming Scope 2 revisions

Scope 2 emissions are associated with purchased electricity, which is often treated as essentially synonymous with grid-based electricity use. Under the current market-based accounting method, procured clean energy…

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CEBA-Commissioned Paper: Corporate Demand Drives Clean Energy

The Clean Energy Buyers Association (CEBA), the industry association focused on activating energy buyers and partners to advance low-cost, reliable, carbon emissions-free global electricity systems, worked with REsurety to answer the question – “We know clean energy buyers make a difference in getting clean energy projects built. But how important are they, really?” The answer: the upfront contracts that clean energy buyers sign, called power purchase agreements (PPAs), have played a critical role in the buildout of clean energy in the United States. Read on to see CEBA’s press release and link to the report.

Authored by Misti Groves, SVP US Strategy, CEBA

Companies that voluntarily buy clean energy play a critical role in clean energy projects being built. Without extensive voluntary commitments by corporate buyers to purchase clean energy, fewer projects will be financed and built, and the U.S. will struggle to meet growing energy demand.

Over the past decade, corporate clean energy procurement has accounted for more than 40% of new U.S. clean energy capacity additions. Corporate procurement enables companies to meet sustainability goals, hedge against unpredictable energy prices, and support the U.S. electricity grid’s expansion and resilience.

The U.S. is demanding more electricity than ever, driven by the rise in artificial intelligence, increased electrification, and resurgent U.S. manufacturing. To meet this demand efficiently and cost-effectively, the U.S. needs to build a lot more clean energy — and fast.

Why Is Corporate Demand for Clean Energy So Important?

A recent CEBA-commissioned study analyzed the scale of impact that corporate offtake provides. Until now, there have been limited data points to show the extent to which long-term corporate virtual power purchase agreements (VPPAs) enable energy projects to get financed. This study shows how truly vital corporate offtake is in energy projects being built and bringing energy to the grid.  

A VPPA is a financial contract between a company and a renewable energy project where the company agrees to buy the project’s power at a fixed price, but without taking physical delivery of the electricity, often contracted for 8-15 years. Corporate buyers guarantee a price for electricity, insulating the projects from the ups and downs of market electricity prices and making it possible for projects to get financing. This long price guarantee from the company gives lenders the assurance they need to provide capital for the project.   

Without a corporate buyer, a project’s revenues are dictated by fluctuating wholesale electricity prices, also known as “merchant revenue.” Variability in merchant revenue can lead to periods where projects cannot meet their term debt obligations, resulting in financial distress.  VPPAs – and, to a lesser, but still important, extent, renewable energy certificates (RECs) – are essential instruments to blunt these fluctuations.

VPPAs and RECs Provide Revenue Stability for Clean Energy Buyers

REsurety analyzed the economic performance of 251 wind and solar projects that operate in three major U.S. energy markets: ERCOT (Texas), MISO (Midwest), and PJM (Mid-Atlantic). Here’s what they found:

  • Corporate VPPAs slash financial distress by up to 90% in key markets: By hedging against dynamic market prices, VPPAs provided the revenue stability to reduce the number of projects facing financial distress by approximately 80% in ERCOT and over 90% in MISO and PJM compared to the merchant scenario. This stability is critical for securing project financing.
  • RECs reduce incidents of financial distress by up to 30%: While their impact is less substantial than VPPAs, unbundled REC purchases provide an additional revenue stream that can reduce financial distress compared to purely merchant projects. RECs do not directly mitigate wholesale power price volatility. However, higher REC revenue can lead to more significant reductions in financial distress.  
Financial Distress According to Revenue Source
Figure 1: Percentage of renewable energy projects that face simulated financial distress (defined as having a negative free cash flow) across different revenue scenarios in ERCOT, MISO, and PJM. The scenarios include revenue from the wholesale market only (Merchant), revenue from the wholesale market plus a $2.74 REC (With REC Offtake), and revenue from the wholesale market plus a VPPA (With VPPA).

Conclusion

Corporate clean energy agreements are essential to the financing and construction of the electricity generation we need. As the demand for electricity continues to surge and the grid requires rapid, cost-effective generation, the continued involvement of corporate procurement is more critical than ever to ensure the necessary clean energy build-out. As load growth continues, corporate participation and recognition are necessary to accelerate clean energy additions to the grid.

REsurety Receives CFTC Approval for First and Only Clean Energy Marketplace and Transaction Platform

CleanTrade brings unprecedented transparency, liquidity, and end-to-end transaction workflow support to clean energy markets.

BOSTON, Mass. – Sep. 03, 2025 – REsurety, the leading provider of software, services, and marketplace solutions empowering the future of energy, today announced the regulatory approval of its clean energy transaction platform, CleanTrade, from the US federal Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). CleanTrade now provides the first and only compliant marketplace for financially-settled contracts for clean energy, often referred to as Virtual Power Purchase Agreements (VPPAs). Global food and agriculture company Cargill and leading independent energy and commodity group Mercuria, early adopters on Clean Trade, were matched to execute the first transaction on the platform.

Regulated transaction platforms, such as the Intercontinental Exchange, have been key drivers of transparency and liquidity in traditional energy markets for years, allowing market participants to procure, sell, and trade energy products such as natural gas, oil, and baseload power with speed and confidence. Now, with formal approval from the CFTC, CleanTrade unlocks these significant benefits for clean energy markets.

“Last year, more than 90% of new US generation capacity came from clean energy sources, but despite that explosive growth, clean energy markets have been deprived of the sophisticated toolkit that traditional thermal energy has long benefited from,” said REsurety CEO Lee Taylor. “With this CFTC approval, CleanTrade now fills that huge void in the energy markets.”

Historically, clean energy transactions have been supported by brokers and information service providers. But that process was opaque and illiquid, and transacting was cumbersome. As the industry has scaled and matured, its needs have outgrown those services. As an approved Swap Execution Facility (SEF), CleanTrade is the first and only marketplace and platform where organizations can fully transact. It provides full market transparency into transactable bids and offers for clean energy and enables end-to-end workflow support, from automated generation of compliant form transaction documents to Dodd-Frank reporting.

In addition to providing a marketplace for the SEF-enabled VPPA products, CleanTrade also provides much-needed transparency and liquidity for physical power purchase agreements and project-specific renewable energy certificates. CleanTrade users also benefit from the industry-leading financial and environmental analytics provided by REsurety’s CleanSight platform, providing best-in-class insight into project-specific capture rate and congestion risk exposures as well as the granular and rigorous environmental metrics increasingly demanded by leading clean energy buyers such as 24/7 carbon-free electricity advocates and the Emissions First Partnership.

Project metrics: Carbon and financial analysis via CleanSight for offers

“A transparent and liquid clean energy marketplace and transaction-ready platform like CleanTrade has been sorely needed in this sector for years, so I’m thrilled to see REsurety stepping up to lead the charge,” said Peter Freed, former director of energy strategy at Meta and now founding partner at Near Horizon Group and board member at REsurety Markets. “CleanTrade allows users to discover and capitalize on the 100-gigawatt corporate market of high-value VPPA contracts — and also allows clean energy buyers to manage the risk of contracts they’ve already signed.”

CleanTrade was purpose-built to serve the diverse spectrum of today’s clean energy market participants, from the buyers and sellers of long-term greenfield VPPAs to the owners of existing projects or contracts who are looking to actively manage their exposure to energy markets — whether for a month, a year, or a decade.

To learn more, request a demo of CleanTrade.

About REsurety
REsurety is the leading provider of data, software, and services to the clean energy economy, and operates the only transactional marketplace for clean power. Trusted by the industry’s leading buyers, sellers, and investors, REsurety’s proprietary data models, powerful technology platforms, and deep domain expertise empower confident, impactful decision-making and efficient, effective portfolio management. For more information, visit www.resurety.com or follow REsurety on LinkedIn.

About REsurety Markets
REsurety Markets operates CleanTrade, the only transactional marketplace for clean power. A wholly owned subsidiary of REsurety, REsurety Markets provides the infrastructure for compliant, liquid clean energy markets. For more information, visit https://resurety.com/cleantrade/.

Media Contact
Nikki Arnone, Inflection Point Agency for REsurety
[email protected]

Why We Nailed Our July ERCOT Price Forecast

(When Others Thought We’d Miss)

Authored by Son Phan, Research Scientist, REsurety

Son Phan
Research Scientist
REsurety

At REsurety, our research and power markets team is dedicated to modeling energy prices, project generation, and emissions impact. The team is interdisciplinary: we have experts in power markets, statistics & analytics, meteorology, and grid operations.

Why do we need such a deep bench of experts? Because forecasting electricity prices is notoriously complex. These values determine what projects get built, sold, and invested in – months before we’ll know whether the wind will blow or the sun will shine. It’s high stakes, and our goal at REsurety is accuracy.

If you’re an energy buyer, we know better forecasts mean better budgets – helping you to engage internal stakeholders, build confidence in your portfolio strategy, and plan for future investments.

If you’re an investor, better forecasts help reduce uncertainty around whether projects will hit their rate of return or lead to stable, long-term yields.

And if you’re a trader, credible data means hedge providers can more accurately price offtake agreements. Improved pricing means better risk management with an eye towards the bottom line.

With so much in play, we take this job very seriously, and invest resources internally to focus on providing the analytics our clean energy customers need to lead. Often, it pays off: in July, for example, REsurety predicted ERCOT prices in the mid-$30s per MWh – and we were only off by one dollar. That doesn’t seem all that impressive unless you compare to market forwards: this spring, when we made this prediction, the market forecast predicted prices around $60/MWh – double actuals. Without REsurety data, buyers may have assumed twice what they received in revenue.

So, how were our forecasts that accurate? It boils down to our unique approach and our commitment to a weather sensitive, fundamentals-based model.

How We Optimize Our Models: Customer-First Thinking

Keep reading – fill out the form below to access the full blog post.

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The Power Market is Evolving. REsurety’s Forecasting Team is Growing in Response

Introducing Mark O’Brien to REsurety, a seasoned forecaster to lead Power Markets

Mark O’Brien
Senior Director
Power Markets

This month, REsurety welcomes Mark O’Brien to lead Power Markets, the team responsible for our WeatherSmart forecasts that drive our CleanSight platform. 

Mark brings over two decades of deep experience in fundamental energy forecasting and power markets. Before joining REsurety, Mark spent 24 years with American Electric Power (AEP) in Columbus, Ohio, a tenure that has given him a unique perspective on the energy transition.

Mark’s career at AEP was split between engineering and fundamental forecasting. Working on the generation side of the vertically integrated utility, his team’s forecasts were crucial for market strategy and rate setting.

Forecasting: It’s all Fundamental 

When asked what has changed about fundamental forecasting since he began his career, Mark takes a measured approach. Sure, the tools are more sophisticated, but “forecasts, including the factors I look at when building them, have not fundamentally changed over my years – although, the driving factors shaping outcomes have. Previously, energy credits or demand-side economics might have driven the story.

“Today’s power market is fundamentally different. Load growth from data centers is ‘the story’ that ended over a decade of stagnation and exposed a lack of investment in new energy generation in the United States. The necessity to build new capacity, on an unprecedented scale, coupled with a lack of experience in such large-scale construction, is creating challenges.”

A Look Ahead: Forces Shaping the U.S. Energy Landscape

Mark agrees that the U.S. is at a crossroads when it comes to energy. “We’re in a world where short-term realities – the pressure to meet load now – are bumping up against long-term requirements and what it will cost to reliably deliver that power in the future. While solar and battery storage have recently dominated new capacity additions, power market constraints are now pushing utilities toward other cost-effective solutions like natural gas in the immediate term, with the sentiment being: ‘I’d love to be green, but I also want to serve the load.’”

The complexity is further driven by state and local economic policies. In both regulated and deregulated markets, new energy infrastructure projects (particularly those necessary to serve data centers and large industrial loads) are frequently met with regulatory incentives—such as expedited permitting, tax abatements, or customized rate tariffs—due to their significant promise of job creation and increased tax revenue. Mark thinks there will be some noise in pricing, with some wildly optimistic – and pessimistic – predictions catching air time as the country sorts out how to meet this new moment in history.

But according to Mark, good fundamental forecasts are all the same: agnostic to energy source and focused on economics. “Ultimately, serving the load requires a diverse fuel mix. It requires a nuanced understanding of how long power takes to get to market, by source, and experience following economic trends that may dictate consumer behavior. I look forward to bringing this rigor to REsurety’s forecasts.”

We look forward to Mark’s insights.

Want to learn more about what makes REsurety’s forecasts so special? Check out more in our recent blog post.

A New Marketplace to Power the New Energy Economy

From a bold idea to a CFTC-approved launch, CleanTrade is the marketplace clean energy has long deserved.

Authored by Lee Taylor, CEO, REsurety

Lee Taylor, REsurety
Lee Taylor
CEO
REsurety

Clean energy is powering a new era of economic growth but still relies on antiquated market infrastructure. We’re changing that today.

Following our approval by the CFTC to operate the first marketplace for clean energy, we are officially launching CleanTrade.

We are bringing a modern and transparent transaction platform to a space that has had to operate by email, phone calls, spreadsheets, and information services for far too long. No other company, tool, or service today comes close to offering the benefits that come with a truly centralized, regulated transactional marketplace.

This mission is personal. I grew up the son of a wildlife film producer and environmental reporter who impressed on me the need to make environmental problems my problem. I always believed that the biggest, most intractable environmental challenges could only be solved by harnessing the power of economics. The scale of the problem requires market-based solutions. This conviction is what led me to create REsurety. Our vision has always been to drive the transparency, liquidity, and impact of clean energy markets. CleanTrade is the next phase of that vision.

CleanTrade as a Milestone: Clean Energy Market Reaches Next Phase of Maturity

We’re not just digitizing legacy processes; we’re creating the fundamental market infrastructure needed to power the future of energy.

The clean energy market is massive – over $50 billion in transactions take place annually in the US alone. But this incredible scale still relies on antiquated market infrastructure. The transactions themselves are complex: a wind farm outside Dallas produces energy of a significantly different value than a wind farm outside Odessa. Each project’s intermittent generation has unique characteristics – a fact that has prevented the industry from benefiting from the revolutionary transparency and liquidity that the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) brought to traditional, dispatchable energy from sources like natural gas more than 20 years ago.

Other solutions have attempted to fill in the gaps with advisory, brokerage, and information services, but without access to a centralized marketplace, clean energy buyers, sellers, and traders waste time and money finding each other, agreeing on a fair price, and executing transactions.

We’ve built a solution tailor-made for the unique nature of clean energy assets. It’s where Virtual Power Purchase Agreements (vPPAs), physical Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs), and project-specific Renewable Energy Certificates (RECs) can be bought, sold, and traded in a transparent, liquid, and compliant platform.

REsurety as the End-to-End Partner to Our Customers

Our core business has always been about providing the data and analytics needed to understand and manage the unique risks of clean energy assets. CleanSight is the industry-leading platform for valuing and managing these assets and our consulting and transaction advisory services have helped countless clients navigate this complex landscape.

CleanTrade ties all of this together. We now provide an end-to-end solution for our clients, helping them develop their strategy, underwrite and execute transactions, and manage their portfolios with confidence.

Journey to the First Regulated Clean Energy Marketplace

Building a modern, regulated transaction platform from the ground up is not for the faint of heart. The single biggest hurdle we faced was earning the right to be registered as a Swap Execution Facility, or SEF, regulated by the CFTC. This registration is reserved for platforms that meet the highest standards of market integrity, transparency, and compliance.

We began this journey in the summer of 2021. The process has been rigorous, demanding, and incredibly detailed. After just over four years of work, the application that the CFTC ultimately accepted was 986 pages long – a testament to the level of diligence required to meet the CFTC’s high bar to operate a compliant marketplace. We are proud to have earned this registration, but more importantly, we’re excited by what it means for the market: to offer the clean energy industry the transparency, liquidity, and efficient transaction infrastructure that the future of our energy industry requires.

This milestone took a village. I want to personally thank the incredible REsurety team for their passion, dedication, and countless hours of hard work. Your talent and grit are what made this ambition a reality.

We also want to extend our deep gratitude to our collaborators, who believed in this vision and helped us bring it to life: Citi Commodities and Citi Strategic Investments, S2G, Haynes Boone, DLA Piper, Jones Day, Stoel Rives, and Eventus. And finally, a special thank you to the dedicated staff, Commissioners, and Chair at the CFTC for their diligence, expertise, and commitment to building fair and transparent markets for all.

Today is just the beginning. The launch of CleanTrade is a giant leap forward, but it is one part of a much larger, long-term vision. At REsurety, we are committed to building the information, tools, and transaction infrastructure the clean energy market deserves, and we are excited to have you on this journey with us.

Want to learn more? Book a demo:

A New Chapter for Clean Energy: REsurety’s CleanTrade Platform

The first-of-its-kind, CFTC-approved platform is poised to revolutionize clean energy transactions

REsurety hit an incredible milestone: CleanTrade received approval from the CFTC to operate as a Swap-Execution Facility (SEF), marking the first marketplace for clean energy where all buyers, sellers, and traders can negotiate and execute deals on one platform.

Owen Glubiak
Owen Glubiak
VP, Business Development,
CleanTrade

To get a closer look at how CleanTrade is simplifying complex transactions and accelerating the clean energy transition, we sat down with CleanTrade’s VP of Business Development, Owen Glubiak.

How do you explain CleanTrade in one sentence?

For those familiar with trading platforms, the easiest way to explain it is that CleanTrade is “The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) for renewables.” This is feedback that I often receive from customers who are seeing the platform for the first time.

For people less familiar with trading platforms, CleanTrade is a platform that provides critical liquidity to project-specific VPPAs, PPAs, and project-specific RECs by streamlining the complex process of buying, selling, and trading clean energy. It enables fast execution through end-to-end workflows and offers visibility into market pricing and terms, along with deep insight into project- and contract-specific financial and environmental metrics.

You joined REsurety for CleanTrade – what made this platform stick out?

I’ve been tracking the clean energy market for a long time, starting with the rise of corporate procurement through VPPAs around 2014. Over the past decade, I’ve seen firsthand the gaps in the market, especially when comparing clean energy to other major commodities like oil and natural gas. The clean energy market has lacked the sophisticated tools for risk management for operating projects (and associated VPPAs) and liquidity that are standard in traditional commodity trading. 

The biggest limiting factor has always been the intermittent nature of renewable energy generation, which requires “as-generated” or VPPA (Virtual Power Purchase Agreement) structures. Unlike traditional energy sources such as natural gas, which have a predictable and constant output, the generation of renewable energy varies based on weather. Other major trading platforms, like ICE and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), do not facilitate these transactions due to the fixed volume requirements they have in their platforms. Without sophisticated analytics, it’s difficult to compare these contracts in an “apples-to-apples” way. CleanTrade solves this by providing visibility into market pricing and terms, as well as deep insight into project- and contract-specific financial and environmental metrics.

For years, the manual, bilateral nature of clean energy deals has meant you’re racing against the clock—and often losing. It’s nearly impossible to move fast enough to seize a short-term market opportunity or hedge against sudden risk. Now, with REsurety’s data-driven platforms, the clean energy market can finally achieve the velocity and maturity of traditional energy trading.

What made CleanTrade stand out to me is that it’s the perfect bridge. It combines the compliance rigor required for conducting transactions with the end-to-end workflows you’d expect from major trading platforms. While other platforms are information-only ‘walled gardens,’ CleanTrade is designed to be a CFTC-compliant marketplace, providing the transparency and liquidity that the market needs to mature. It’s the only transaction platform for clean energy that offers both real-time market insights and project-specific data, including financial performance and emissions impact. This holistic approach is what convinced me that CleanTrade is the solution the industry has been waiting for.

What types of questions from customers get you really excited? What can you offer as a solution?

I get most excited when customers ask about how CleanTrade can help them move beyond a single transaction to build a truly optimized and de-risked clean energy strategy.

Questions like,

“How can we use the platform to hedge our portfolio and mitigate risk?”
or
“How can we compare different projects – not just on price, but on their real-world carbon impact?”

are great because they highlight the platform’s full potential.

As a solution, I can offer a comprehensive end-to-end procurement toolkit that addresses these strategic questions directly. I can show them how to use CleanTrade to:

  • Underwrite risk and value: The platform provides advanced analytical forecasts, allowing customers to simulate historical and forecasted settlements under multiple scenarios. They can also view curated public and modeled generation data to inform their decisions.
  • Optimize for maximum impact: Customers can use our proprietary project-specific carbon impact data to optimize their procurement for environmental effectiveness, moving beyond basic REC accounting.
  • Streamline processes: The platform automates the entire workflow, from bid/offer sourcing and key-term negotiation to automated Dodd-Frank compliance reporting and post-transaction settlement tracking.
  • Access a diverse marketplace: CleanTrade provides a comprehensive discovery tool to find and evaluate projects and offers, including both new builds and operational projects, across various contract types and geographies. The platform offers unprecedented visibility into market pricing and terms.

Visit https://resurety.com/cleantrade/ to learn more and schedule a demo with our team.

On-Demand Webinar: The Future of Energy Offtake

On-Demand Insights From REsurety’s Market and Research Leaders

Catch the recorded session of REsurety’s expert discussion on the key forces shaping clean energy markets in 2026.

Using newly released forecast data, our team unpacks what to expect from power purchase agreements (PPAs), short-term trading trends, and the role of natural gas, plus how policy and weather risk could impact procurement decisions.

You’ll learn:

  • Where offtake market trends may shift in 2026
  • How interconnection queues and policy uncertainty affect project timelines
  • What data signals suggest about clean energy pricing and volatility
  • The tension between long-term contracts and flexible procurement

Watch now to stay ahead of what’s coming in clean energy offtake.

Access the On-Demand Recording

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Climate Week 2025 – September 21-28

Climate Week 2025

The REsurety team will be attending the event in New York City.

Climate Week 2025

REsurety is excited to be returning to Climate Week in NYC from September 21-28, 2025.

Adam Reeve
Adam Reeve
SVP,
Customer Experience
Owen Glubiak
Owen Glubiak
VP,
Business Development
CleanTrade
Blair Allen
Sales Director
CleanSight
Devon Lukas
Devon Lukas
Associate,
Consulting Services

You can connect with Lee at the Xpansive Climate Week Summit and Adam at the CEBA Climate Week Forum on Monday, September 22. Chat with Owen about all things CleanTrade, and reach out to Devon and Blair to learn about REsurety’s consulting services and CleanSight platform.

Interested in attending? You can find the full Climate Week schedule of events here.

Book a meeting with the REsurety team at Climate Week using the form below:

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About Climate Week

Climate Week NYC is a world-leading global climate event, the biggest of its kind. 

It brings together a crucial mix of existing and new leaders from the world of business, tech, politics, academia, and civil society that have the means, the scale and the ideas to take bold action.  

It’s a key global moment that shapes corporate and political thinking and decisions well into the months and years that follow, with the aim of shifting entire systems. 

This year, Climate Week NYC will be held from September 21-28.  

The Climate Week NYC Opening Ceremony, on Monday, September 22, is the most high-profile moment of the week. The event will feature major announcements, discussions, and interviews with international leadership from business, government, and the climate community.  

On Monday and Tuesday, September 22 and 23, Climate Group will host The Hub Live. These sessions will bring together hundreds of the most influential leaders from business, government, and the climate sector.  

And then there’s the Climate Week NYC Events Program, an incredibly diverse platform for over 900 events, activations, campaigns and engagement opportunities.  

Set up along 10 themes, the program has events for climate leaders at all levels. Corporates, governments, activists, organizations and artists gather across the City of New York, as well as a variety of hybrid and online activities. From Health and Energy to Finance and Food, Climate Week NYC brings the themes in which the world can and needs to take concrete action.  

As such, Climate Week NYC unites people from all levels and backgrounds.

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Currents Podcast: What the Proposed Scope 2 Changes Could Mean

Lee Taylor, CEO of REsurety, joins Norton Rose Fulbright’s Todd Alexander to unpack the debate surrounding the proposed revisions to the Greenhouse Gas Protocol’s Scope 2 emissions guidance.

Currents Podcast: What the Proposed Scope 2 Changes Could Mean

Currents Podcast features in-depth discussions on the latest developments in project finance. The podcast is hosted by partner Todd Alexander, who interviews key business leaders and policy makers to investigate important trends affecting the energy and infrastructure space.

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Blog Post: Wasted Wind

The Transmission Challenge Threatening SPP’s Renewable Energy Future

Author: Maha Mapara, Senior Energy Analyst, REsurety  

Maha Mapara, REsurety
Maha Mapara
Senior Energy Analyst, REsurety

Transmission congestion has become a growing issue over the last several years. As more wind and solar capacity has been installed in the U.S., delivery of least-cost energy to load centers has become increasingly difficult. Due to this, higher-cost energy is dispatched to meet the load requirements; driving up electricity prices for consumers, decreasing deliverability of cleaner energy sources, and decreasing grid reliability. In order to offset congestion-based revenue losses, grid operators and market participants can use financial instruments to hedge against congestion. This article focuses on Southwest Power Pool (SPP) to explore the impacts of congestion and how these impacts can be mitigated. 

One of the major effects of transmission congestion is on electricity prices. Locational Marginal Prices (LMPs) determine prices in wholesale electricity markets. LMPs are dependent on location, supply, demand, and transmission constraints. When a transmission line is congested, it becomes economically less efficient to dispatch power across that line. This results in a higher LMP at the delivery point compared to the injection point (where generation is located). A congested transmission element, coupled with oversupply at the injection point can drive LMPs to low or even negative values for the generating wind or solar projects. 

SPP is a Regional Transmission Organization (RTO) that serves approximately 18 million residents in all or part of 14 states. This wind-rich region has seen a large wind capacity expansion from ~16GW in 2017 to ~34GW in 2024. In 2017, SPP became the first operator in North America to serve more than 50% of its load at a given time using wind generation alone. Wind power has consistently been the largest single source of generation over the last few years, accounting for 37% of total generation in the winter 2025 quarter. Furthermore, comparatively lower installation costs and Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) prices than other U.S. regions position SPP as an attractive region for wind development. 

However, the grid-system market value of wind energy in SPP is the lowest among all U.S. operators at $13/MWh in 2023. This represents a 60% lower market value for wind relative to average wholesale prices, driven by a combination of profile- and congestion-based value reductions. The congestion-based value reduction stems directly from inadequate transmission infrastructure.

The current infrastructure lacks the capacity to transmit the plentiful, low-cost wind energy typically located in rural areas to more distant urban demand centers. For example, many wind projects located to the west and north of Oklahoma City face ‘deliverability’ issues to the city due to transmission constraints. This creates significant price differentials between the point of generation and the point of demand, ultimately leading to revenue losses for wind projects on one end, and higher consumer prices on the other.

To quantify this issue in a simple manner, we can consider wind generation to be ‘deliverable’ if the price difference between the point of generation and Oklahoma City is less than 10%. The figure below shows a consistent decrease in the deliverability of wind energy from 38% in 2018 to 15% in 2024. At the same time, installed wind capacity in SPP increased by nearly 19GW, underscoring the disparity between wind generation and existing transmission capacity. 

Blog Post: Wasted Wind - Figure 1: Average deliverable wind generation from SPP to Oklahoma City

To address transmission constraints, SPP identified transmission system components, or ‘flowgates’, that experienced severe bottlenecks from 2022 to 2024. One of these flowgates is the Cimarron 345/138 kV XF 3 transformer, located just west of Oklahoma City. It is responsible for stepping down high-voltage power for local distribution and incurred over $50 million in congestion costs over the 24-month period. Several reasons contributed to this: multiple wind generators upstream producing at the same time, outage of other transformers at the same substation, and the connection of major new projects like the 998 MW Traverse Wind Energy Center in March 2022. As a result, the transformer became the most congested flowgate west of Oklahoma City by the fall of 2024. The economic impact of a constraint is measured by the shadow price, and for this flowgate, it reached a 12-month rolling average of over $60/MWh in the winter of 2025. This means that for every additional MWh of electricity that could have been transmitted through this bottleneck, the system would have saved $60 on average.

Given the significant financial impact of such congestion, market participants like utility companies and electricity suppliers often utilize financial hedging instruments to reduce their exposure. Financial Transmission Rights, also known as Transmission Congestion Rights (TCRs) in SPP, are instruments that function like an insurance policy; a TCR is purchased in an auction and provides its holder with a payout when there is a price difference between two points on the grid in the day-ahead market. Consider a simple example: a wind project in western Oklahoma experienced a $5/MWh nodal price, while the price in Oklahoma City was $70/MWh. If the wind project held a TCR between these two points, it would have received a payment for the $65/MWh price spread, minus the purchase price. This mechanism would have allowed the project to offset the revenue lost to congestion, thereby locking in more predictable earnings. However, in areas with chronic congestion, the cost of acquiring TCRs can escalate significantly, potentially making them prohibitively expensive or leading to scenarios where the purchase effectively locks in a loss for a project. Conversely, if congestion doesn’t materialize as anticipated, a TCR holder might have overpaid for their hedge.

The real-world impact of this hedging was evident in the SPP TCR market results for the winter 2025 quarter. Load-serving entities collectively earned $837 million through the congestion hedging market, more than covering their $707 million in day-ahead congestion costs. In contrast, other participants like generators and financial entities did not fully cover their total day-ahead congestion cost of $544 million. Nevertheless, hedging still proved beneficial, leading to a $341 million reduction in this total.

Ultimately, while financial instruments like TCRs provide a mechanism for managing the economic risks of congestion, they are a treatment for the symptom, not the cure. The persistent bottlenecks and declining deliverability of wind power in SPP underscore an urgent need for physical solutions. Recognizing this, SPP’s Board of Directors, in October 2024, approved $7.7 billion for 89 transmission upgrades. This investment includes 2,333 miles of new transmission and 495 miles of transmission rebuilds. Such efforts are expected not only to relieve congestion but also to enhance grid resilience and boost renewable investment in the region.

DISCLAIMER: This blog post contains information related to REsurety and the commodity interest derivatives services and other services that REsurety provides. Any statements of fact in this presentation are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor do they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement, nor with respect to any expression of opinion which may be contained herein. The risk of loss in trading commodity interest derivatives contracts can be substantial. Each investor must carefully consider whether this type of investment is appropriate for them or their company. Please be aware that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

All information, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by REsurety shall be construed as a solicitation. REsurety does not distribute research reports, employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71. Image: iStock/Petmal.

Webinar Recording: Limitations of Hourly Matching Claims for Scope 2 Reporting

Is hourly matching accounting the future of Scope 2 reporting – or a well-intentioned detour?

Miranda Ballentine joined Michael Gillenwater and Michael Leggett, co-authors of the new essay, Limitations of Hourly Matching Claims for Scope 2 Reporting.

In this thought-provoking session, the panel explored how companies account for their clean energy purchases and what effect more granular “hourly” accounting methods might have on the voluntary market.

We dug into questions like:

  • In what ways has the voluntary clean energy market driven – or not – more clean energy development?
  • How should geography and grid impacts factor into clean energy claims?
  • What are the hidden tradeoffs of annual vs. hourly matching?

Watch the recording for a candid discussion, fresh thinking, and a live Q&A session. Whether you’re a sustainability professional, a policy nerd, or just navigating Scope 2 claims for your company, this is a conversation you won’t want to miss.

Limitations of Hourly Matching Claims Webinar Recording

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Speakers:

Miranda Ballentine
Miranda Ballentine
Senior Advisor
Green Strategies, Inc.
Michael Gillenwater
Michael Gillenwater
Executive Director and Dean
GHG Management Institute
Michael Leggett
Co-Founder and CPO
Ever.green

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Blog Post: Q2 2025 Weather-Smart Fundamental Forecasts Now Available

Author: Jennifer Newman, VP, Research, REsurety

Jen is photographed at NREL’s National Wind Technology Center in Boulder, CO. 

I am excited to share that our Q2 2025 Weather-Smart Fundamentals Forecast release is now available in REsurety’s CleanSight platform. Since 2022, our Weather-Smart Fundamentals Forecasts have helped customers better understand the connection between weather, market fundamentals, and project value. 

With our tools and services, customers can evaluate clean energy projects under expected conditions, stress test downside risk, and identify potential upside. They can build and track portfolios that help mitigate correlated risks — and measure the carbon impact of clean generation, storage, and consumption based on location, timing, and grid dynamics.

In this quarterly installment, we see prices remain relatively flat in the near term, but begin rising in the mid to long term as large new loads put added strain on the system.

Before jumping into the details of our latest forecast, it’s worth revisiting the fundamentals that make such insights possible.

What is a fundamentals model, and why are we using it?

My team’s goal is to forecast how power prices could evolve over the next 20 years, and we’re doing that with a fundamentals model. This means taking all the components that impact price formation — supply, amount of wind or solar generation, gas plant capacity, system demand, the constraints around how electrons move around — and solving for how to meet the region’s load at the least cost possible. It’s the same logic that underlies real-world power markets. The fundamentals model simulates those dynamics to predict future power prices.

Weather-Smart comes in because we don’t just do this simulation for typical weather conditions — we look at 40 years of weather variability and input that into our model to get a distribution of potential weather outcomes. That’s really important because weather can have a big impact on power prices. 

For starters, if it’s really hot in the summer, or really cold in the winter, demand is going to be higher, which tends to drive up the price of electricity. Weather also impacts the supply side, especially when renewables are involved. If it’s really cloudy or if it’s not very windy, then you’re not going to have as much wind or solar generation, and that will impact prices as well. Our Weather-Smart fundamentals modeling brings together all that weather variability along with market fundamentals to predict prices in the future.

From there the name of the game with forecasting prices is forecasting load growth. Most of the markets that we forecast — primarily ERCOT, MISO, and PJM — are expecting a lot of data centers to come online in the next 10 to 20 years, which will dramatically increase load. Many of these markets have not seen a ton of load growth year over year, so this is going to be an almost exponential increase in the amount of load on the system. They’re also expecting to bring more capacity online, including a significant amount of new renewables, along with gas and storage. 

Testing the limits of load growth

An important challenge is to determine if load forecasts are realistic. Do we think that all these data centers will actually come online? And if so, how can we build up the capacity to serve the load while avoiding rolling blackouts? 

In nearly all cases we erred on the side of making downward adjustments to ISO-provided load forecasts, to reflect a) more realistic rates of load growth and b) capacity build-out based on historical trends. We’re seeing many markets moving toward more solar now that it’s relatively cheap. This will cause the value of solar to decrease in a so-called cannibalization effect, where the more and more solar you get on the grid, the less valuable it becomes. Meanwhile as all that solar competes against other solar projects, bringing down energy prices, wind can get a positive edge.

Wind tends to be stronger at night, and as solar generation ramps up during the day, it pushes high prices into the evening. Wind can take advantage of that shift — capturing those higher prices and becoming more valuable as a result. Consequently, we’re starting to see wind value recover in markets that have historically low wind capture rates, such as ERCOT and SPP.
In some markets, we even see brief morning price spikes before solar kicks in, especially when wind has already tapered off — and storage is often well positioned to benefit from those early high-price hours too. 

More broadly, we closely track movements across these markets with the goal to produce the most realistic forecasts possible. We’re focused on what we think is realistic, while also showing the variability around that. This includes weather-driven variability, as well as scenarios based on different gas price assumptions. We provide both high and low gas scenarios to show how prices might respond, since gas plays such a major role in shaping the price of power.

Ultimately our goal is to reflect the most likely outcomes, while also accounting for the uncertainty built into both the weather and the fundamentals.

Want to learn more? Find more information in our Weather-Smart Fundamentals Modeling brief

Ready to dive into the Q2 2025 numbers? Customers, log in to CleanSight

DISCLAIMER: This blog post contains information related to REsurety and the commodity interest derivatives services and other services that REsurety provides. Any statements of fact in this presentation are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor do they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement, nor with respect to any expression of opinion which may be contained herein. The risk of loss in trading commodity interest derivatives contracts can be substantial. Each investor must carefully consider whether this type of investment is appropriate for them or their company. Please be aware that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

All information, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by REsurety shall be construed as a solicitation. REsurety does not distribute research reports, employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71.

Interchange Recharged Podcast: The world’s most-used carbon accounting rule is about to get a major overhaul

What does it mean for clean energy buyers?

Episode summary from Wood Mackenzie

The Greenhouse Gas Protocol – the global gold standard for measuring corporate emissions – is under review, and the proposed changes could dramatically reshape how clean energy is bought, sold, and reported. New draft rules are expected by the end of the year.

What changes could we see? And how will they impact the energy transition? To find out, Sylvia Leyva Martinez, principal analyst at Wood Mackenzie covering solar markets, speaks with Lee Taylor, CEO of Resurety – a leading provider of data and analytics for clean energy buyers. Lee has spent over a decade helping companies understand not just how to procure renewables, but how to do so with real carbon impact.

Together, they explore what’s changing in Scope 2 emissions accounting, why location and timing of energy use now matter more than ever, and how voluntary clean power markets might evolve. They break down complex concepts like emissionality, 24/7 procurement, and consequential accounting – and what these mean for corporate net-zero strategies, PPA structures, and the future of Renewable Energy Certificates.

If your business buys clean electricity or reports against Scope 2, this is essential listening.

Plus, Taylor shares his advice for buyers and developers navigating the shifting landscape, and explains why the next six months will be key in shaping rules that will define voluntary climate leadership in the coming years.

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Blog Post: Reducing Exposure to VPPA Price Volatility with a Settlement Swap Agreement

Reducing Exposure to VPPA Price Volatility with a Settlement Swap Agreement (SSA)

Authored by Aaron Perry, Director, Commodity Trading Advisory, REsurety

Aaron Perry
Aaron Perry
Director,
Commodity Trading Advisory

Virtual power purchase agreements (VPPAs) are a powerful and popular way for clean energy buyers to contract solar and wind energy. But recent market, regulatory, and policy shifts might expose buyers to more financial risk than they’ve seen in the past. 

Price volatility has become the rule, not the exception — and for clean energy buyers, the stakes are rising. Now is a great time to examine your risk management strategy and understand what options you have to mitigate your exposure to power market volatility.

This article explains one such approach to gain more budget confidence: a settlement swap agreement (SSA).

How VPPAs work with SSAs

In a VPPA, the clean energy buyer doesn’t take physical delivery of the power. They pay a fixed price (aka strike price) per MWh generation, but the electricity gets sold into the local market. They receive the associated RECs and the wholesale market price as settled at a defined hub or node. This is also often known as a contract for differences (CfD).

The market price can fluctuate, exposing the buyer to volatility. Sometimes the difference between their VPPA strike price and the wholesale market price pays out in their favor; sometimes the reverse is true.

How VPPAs work with SSAs Figure 1

A settlement swap agreement (SSA), also known as a VPPA hedge, can help clean energy buyers reduce their exposure to this power market volatility and provide more confidence around their VPPA settlements.

Through an SSA, the clean energy buyer is able to pass the market price along to a third party, such as a commodity trader. In return, the buyer receives a fixed SSA price. Thus, they’ve offset a volatile portion of their VPPA and increased the stability of their cashflows.

How VPPAs work with SSAs Figure 2

With a VPPA and SSA both in place, a clean energy buyer effectively only needs to pay the difference between the VPPA price and the SSA price, while still receiving the environmental attributes from the clean energy project (i.e., RECs).

The buyer will still need to consider seasonal and weather-related variations in generation for budgeting, but the exposure to fluctuations in market price are removed.

How VPPAs work with SSAs Figure 3

What does an SSA look like in practice?

The price offered for an SSA will depend on the current market price for power at a project, which could be higher or lower than the VPPA price. If the SSA price is higher than the VPPA price, the buyer will receive revenue from the net of the two deals. If the SSA price is lower, then the buyer will pay out on net. Both of these scenarios are potentially beneficial, in that the settlements on a $/MWh basis are more consistent than the volatility and variability in power markets. 

Let’s consider a hypothetical wind project in Texas with a $35/MWh VPPA. Over the past few years, annual settlement has varied between -$13M and $29M. Depending on natural gas prices — which are the primary driver of wholesale electricity market prices — forecasted settlement could vary anywhere from -$5M to $10M. (When natural gas prices are low, wholesale prices drop too, potentially putting the VPPA under water. When natural gas prices are high, electricity market prices also rise, putting the VPPA “in the money.”)

The figure immediately below shows REsurety’s historical back cast for the period 2011–2024, showing the -$13M to $29M spread. The notable spike in 2021 was the combined result of higher overall natural gas prices plus the impact of Winter Storm Uri, which saw ERCOT electricity market prices peak at $9,000/MWh.

What does an SSA look like in practice?

In the forecast graph below looking ahead at years 2026–2035, the blue column represents REsurety’s baseline case using projections about generation buildout and demand growth, as well as market natural gas prices. The green and purple columns represent high and low natural gas scenarios, respectively. The base case looks good, but if natural gas prices fall (and wholesale electricity market prices with them), it could leave the VPPA and clean energy buyer in the negative.

Net Settlement by Forecast Scenario Figure 1

If a buyer wanted to hedge the next three years and was able to get an SSA for $37/MWh, they would “lock in” $2/MWh for the term of the hedge, or roughly $1.2M annually, assuming average project generation in each year.

Net Settlement by Forecast Scenario Figure 2

If the buyer didn’t want to hedge the entire project, even at 50% of their contracted volume, the forecasted volatility would shrink to -$2M to $6M over the hedge term.

Net Settlement by Forecast Scenario Figure 3

Finally, let’s say the buyer wanted to reduce their risk for the remaining term. Longer-term hedges can sometimes be more expensive, so let’s assume a $33/MWh hedge (instead of $37/MWh for the short-term hedge). In this case the buyer would “lock in” a -$2/MWh for the remainder of the VPPA term. This cost can be thought of as the implied cost of renewable energy certificates (RECs) as well as the cost of risk management.

What are my risks?

Like all financial instruments, an SSA isn’t risk-free. All of the examples provided in this article assume a simple structure for the swap portion of the VPPA. However, most VPPAs are more complex than that, with price floors, availability guarantees, basis provisions, damages provisions, and other terms that can impact the calculation of settlement or trigger payments.

The biggest risk of an SSA is that one of these terms can trigger payment if the VPPA isn’t matched (or back-to-backed) in the SSA. For instance, if the buyer signs an SSA with a $0/MWh price floor, but there is no price floor in the VPPA, then the buyer may be liable for payment under the VPPA but not receive the needed level of protection from the SSA. 

Ensuring alignment between the VPPA and SSA is incredibly important prior to entering these contracts. REsurety aims to mitigate this risk by including the original VPPA in the SSA contract to help remove ambiguity and make the intent of the hedge clear. In cases where terms cannot be perfectly aligned, understanding what the gaps and impact are is important to understanding whether this type of hedge is right for you.

How do you get started?

Fill out the form below to explore the Wind VPPA Hedge Simulator tool, which allows you to simulate a 10-year VPPA and a hedge for a wind project in Texas to get a better intuitive understanding of the settlement swap agreement product.

Wind VPPA Hedge Simulator

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DISCLAIMER: This blog post contains information related to REsurety, Inc. and the commodity interest derivatives services and other services that REsurety, Inc. provides. Any statements of fact in this presentation are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor do they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement, nor with respect to any expression of opinion which may be contained herein. The risk of loss in trading commodity interest derivatives contracts can be substantial. Each investor must carefully consider whether this type of investment is appropriate for them or their company. Please be aware that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Image: iStock/Petmal.

All information, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by REsurety shall be construed as a solicitation. REsurety does not distribute research reports, employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71.

Blog Post: Billions at Stake

Green hydrogen

How 45V is Shaping Green Hydrogen Production

Authored by Mikhail Sharov, Senior Analyst, Consulting Services, REsurety

Mikhail Sharov
Senior Analyst, Consulting Services
REsurety

Worth $18 billion in 2023, the annual U.S. hydrogen generation market is poised to expand to $31 billion by 2033. Hydrogen has myriad diverse commercial applications across varied industries: as a precursor to ammonia in fertilizer production, as an input for methanol fuel in shipping, in metals refining and processing, in fuel cells, and for direct process heat.

What is green hydrogen?

Today, most hydrogen is produced from fossil fuels (natural gas and/or coal as feedstocks). This results in a heavy carbon footprint for two reasons: greenhouse gases (GHG) released from the breakdown of the natural gas or coal itself, and CO2 released when burning fossil fuels for the high heat required of those processes.

Green hydrogen, on the other hand, is produced using electrolysis, splitting water into hydrogen and oxygen via an electrolyzer, and is powered by renewable energies. Naturally, the process of electrolysis does not produce GHGs – the only byproduct being oxygen. And since that electrolysis uses renewable electricity, it releases no energy-related emissions (unlike burning fossil fuels for process heat). As a result, growing momentum promises to make green hydrogen central to decarbonization of hard-to-abate sectors. 

For this reason, green hydrogen is highly valued, and although its 2024 U.S. market size was approximately $270 million, this segment is expected to increase to ~$5 billion by 2033.

45V and H2 production lifecycle emissions

To incentivize the production of green hydrogen, the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) created a subsidy for hydrogen in Section 45V of the bill. Section 45V establishes a tax credit for the production of green hydrogen, with the specific value of the tax credit determined by the amount of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) emitted per kilogram of hydrogen produced. 

In a world of “perfect” green hydrogen, 100% of the power would come from clean electricity such as that generated by solar photovoltaics and wind farms. In the real world of 45V, participation in the tax credit requires that a kilogram of hydrogen is produced with no more than 4 kgCO2e emitted. However, the most desirable level of credit (at $3.00/kg H2) is allotted to production with less than 0.45 kgCO2e per kilogram of hydrogen.

This highlights the importance of one of the main requirements of 45V: lifecycle greenhouse gases — an analysis of emissions over the entire course of production. For other hydrogen production methods, this would include the use of natural gas or coal for gasification, which results in a significant carbon footprint. Additionally, it must include the emissions generated by the source of electricity.

Let’s take a closer look at how easy (or difficult) such emissions levels are to achieve in a place such as Texas, which has a non-insignificant amount of solar and wind energy on the grid and is also one of the U.S.’s potential hydrogen hubs.

To understand the total lifecycle environmental impacts associated with hydrogen production, the DOE developed the 45VH2-GREET model. Using this model for an imagined hydrogen producer in ERCOT, we can estimate that by simply using the standard grid mix (including common, highly emitting gas and coal-fired plants), 20 kg of CO2e are produced per kg of hydrogen. Despite the electrolysis process itself producing no emissions, this is still a far cry from even the 4 kg needed to qualify for the low end of the 45V tax credit. Therefore, it is clear that renewable participation in the creation of green hydrogen is essential for any project to successfully take advantage of the tax credit. In fact, the GREET model shows that in ERCOT, over 98% of utilized energy must be clean (using solar or wind) to achieve the highest credit bracket.

How annual vs. hourly matching impacts green H2 calculations

Current accepted practice for carbon accounting (annual matching) allows a company to purchase and retire RECs from anywhere and anytime over the course of a year, and apply them at will to their electricity load and consumption also over the course of a year. Since hydrogen producers prefer to run electrolyzers at essentially steady state, this allows them to take excess solar generation from the daytime and apply it toward nighttime hydrogen production.

Starting in 2030, 45V requirements change that in a big way. The most contentious stipulation of 45V, known as hourly matching, will require producers to demonstrate that the clean energy they’re applying toward their hydrogen production was generated in the same hour as the electrolyzer’s electricity consumption. This is a dramatic and consequential shift that would render large portions of current clean energy procurement unusable toward 45V tax credits.

To illustrate the difference, consider a hypothetical green hydrogen project in ERCOT’s West Hub with an 80 MW electrolyzer and a power purchase agreement (PPA) with a 250 MW solar project.

Under an annual matching system, solar generation is sufficient to meet 100% of electrolyzer consumption and according to the 45VH2-GREET model, the total emissions of a kg of H2 is zero. This is great, as the electrolyzer will produce ~1.6MT H2 per hour and receive $3,000 per MT in 45V PTCs.

Figure 1. Under an annual matching model, all clean generation could be used to offset utilization making this project have no life-cycle emissions and qualify for the highest PTC bracket
Figure 1. Under an annual matching model, all clean generation could be used to offset utilization making this project have no life-cycle emissions and qualify for the highest PTC bracket.

When switching to an hourly matching requirement, all overprocurement is non-applicable — resulting in only 41% of hours matching fully! Daytime solar generation exceeding the electrolyzer’s consumption is discarded. Meanwhile, the solar plant does not produce electricity overnight, therefore no tax credit could be claimed in those hours.

Figure 2. Maintaining an annual procurement strategy when switching to an hourly matching requirement is inadequate. Energy within any given hour could only be counted against the same hour’s utilization, resulting in less than half of the hours being fully matched.
Figure 2. Maintaining an annual procurement strategy when switching to an hourly matching requirement is inadequate. Energy within any given hour could only be counted against the same hour’s utilization, resulting in less than half of the hours being fully matched.

The necessity of rethinking procurement

As demonstrated, the change to hourly matching mandated by 45V requires a rethinking of procurement strategy for many hydrogen developers. In particular, developers will need to build a diverse procurement portfolio, because a mix of wind and solar will be required to match the electrolyzer consumption during both day and night.

A fine balancing act emerges between procuring enough clean energy to fuel the electrolyzer but cutting overprocurement as it will not apply to matching generation. One possible solution is creating a diverse portfolio of projects and limiting purchases to a fraction of each project’s capacity. This strategy would provide a wide base for consistent energy production while limiting overprocurement. Still, this is easier said than done and comes with high transaction costs and portfolio management overhead. In addition, even the most diverse portfolio will not guarantee 100% electrolyzer utilization due to the nature of intermittent renewable production.

We have created a simulated scenario in which a 100 MW electrolyzer will be powered by power purchase agreements from three different sources at varying contracted fractions. We encourage you to try to optimize this portfolio by modifying each project’s contracted fraction, balancing the electrolyzer’s load with overprocurement.

100 MW Electrolyzer Hourly Matching Simulator

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It is worth noting that although this particular simulation and blog post focus on 45V and green hydrogen, the same challenges faced by hydrogen producers would be faced by a broader set of market participants should the GHG Protocol require hourly matching, as is currently proposed in ongoing revisions.

Moving forward, hydrogen producers looking to take advantage of green hydrogen PTCs will require a more nuanced approach to procurement. Optimization solutions like the one explored in this article require large amounts of data for analysis and subject matter expertise because forecasting and portfolio management become increasingly important to project economics. This quickly becomes complex, requiring, for example, stochastic modeling of generation outages and curtailment, alongside expected variations due to different weather conditions at different project sites.

The hourly matching requirement undoubtedly increases the cost and complexity of purchasing clean electricity for electrolytic hydrogen. Therefore, producers should keep in mind resource type, procurement diversity, and stringent portfolio management when setting their strategies for green hydrogen production and 45V compliance.

To learn more or speak to a member of our team, please click the button below.

This article contains a collection of information related to REsurety, Inc. and the commodity interest derivatives services and other services that REsurety, Inc. provides. Any statements of fact in this article are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor do they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement, nor with respect to any expression of opinion which may be contained herein. The risk of loss in trading commodity interest derivatives contracts can be substantial. Each investor must carefully consider whether this type of investment is appropriate for them or their company. Please be aware that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Image: iStock / Petmal.

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Blog Post: 5 Key Takeaways from the 2025 CEBA Spring Summit

Authored by Adam Reeve, SVP, Customer Experience, REsurety

Adam Reeve, SVP, Customer Experience, REsurety
Adam Reeve
SVP
Customer Experience

Thank you to the Clean Energy Buyers Association for organizing a great spring summit in Minneapolis last week! It was a fantastic opportunity to reconnect with energy leaders and learn more about the current state of the market.

Here are five key takeaways that emerged from discussions with industry experts and innovators:

1. Speed to Capacity is Key

In today’s climate, electricity generation (of any form) is a national security and economic issue, not just a “renewables” issue. Renewables, storage, and gas (if you’ve already ordered a turbine, that is) are the fastest way to add the capacity to the grid that is needed to accelerate the data center development fueling AI.

2. Shifting Procurement Focus

In light of high costs and scrutiny on corporate budgets, corporate purchasers are exploring new options in addition to “traditional” greenfield vPPA strategies, including procuring clean power from operational projects, shorter terms (under 10 years), purchasing long-term REC strips, and working more with utilities for low-carbon power supply.

3. GHG Accounting Debate

The role of 24/7 clean energy in the Greenhouse Gas Protocol is being heavily debated, with concerns about feasibility, costs, data availability, and emissions benefits highlighting the need for practical approaches for carbon accounting. There is universal recognition that the incentives shaped by the Greenhouse Gas Protocol should empower companies of all shapes, sizes, and locations to take ambitious and meaningful climate action via a range of technologies.

4. Commitments Are Staying Firm – For Now

Despite some industry headwinds, it was exciting to see corporate buyers remain committed to their climate goals. That said, we caution against celebrating too early: buyers are working under increased budget pressure, so we are seeing more companies looking at ways to manage costs and risks carefully.

5. The Voluntary Market Has Been Expanding

The clean energy buyer ecosystem has been visibly expanding. Two directions of expansion include 1) companies relatively early in their decarbonization journey seeking “high impact” options for reducing emissions, and 2) larger organizations using their buying power on behalf of suppliers to decarbonize their supply chain (and associated Scope 3 emissions).

What were your top takeaways from the CEBA Summit? Let us know in the comments here.

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ESIG 2025 Forecasting & Markets Workshop

We had a great time attending the event in Nashville, TN.

REsurety’s Jennifer Newman, VP, Atmospheric Science Research, attended the Energy Systems Integration Group (ESIG) 2025 Forecasting & Markets Workshop from June 24 – 27, 2025.

She was also a featured speaker in a workshop session at the event. You can find more details about the workshop below:

The Increasing Need And Value For Long- And Short-Term Price Forecasts

Date & Time: Wednesday, June 25 from 1:15 – 3:00 pm.

Description: Price forecasts have been essential to the energy industry for decades. Many rely on them for day-to-day operations and planning, but the fundamentals of price forecasting are often overlooked by energy researchers.

ESIG 2025 Forecasting & Markets Workshop - The Increasing Need And Value For Long- And Short-Term Price Forecasts

This panel explored issues for both long- and short-term forecasts including answers to questions such as:

  • What makes a forecast good?
  • How important is forecasting volatility?
  • Has the increased number of storage assets changed the need for price forecasts?
  • Is tail risk becoming more important to forecast with demand-side assets coming online?
  • What types of models are best for long vs short term forecasts?

Speakers:

  • Scott Bruns, Director, U.S. Power Markets, Enverus
  • Jennifer Newman, Vice President of Research, REsurety
  • Amir Mousavi, Technical Staff, Gridmatic
  • McKenzie Fowler, Director, Energy Modeling, PowerIntel
  • Norm Richardson, President & Founder, EnCompass

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Blog Post: Empowering Global Clean Energy Portfolios

Alabaster cliffs. Normandy, France.

Authored by Karita Licio, Senior Customer Success Manager, REsurety

Karita Licio
Senior Customer Success Manager

The main objective of Customer Success at REsurety is to be a reflection of client needs for the rest of the organization. We recently expanded our CleanSight products and services into Europe as a direct result of clients telling us what they need, REsurety responding to meet those needs, and in the process we uncovered details that will further support our customers in managing portfolios in new and evolving markets.

Our experience as vPPA experts in the U.S. has set us up for success here. Because we help clients manage over 250 contracts, we’ve started keeping a close eye on some of the things that we know will also impact portfolio management in Europe.

One of our first priorities for supporting our clients’ European projects was enhancing our global generation modeling capabilities. We also now make historical observed power prices accessible to our clients in markets around the world. Together, these critical data sets provide a means for keeping track of settlement and auditing in Europe. We’ve also heard from clients that being able to compare what was forecasted to how settlement and performance actually shapes out helps them to become more accurate in forecasting and shaping future procurement strategies which is arguably more important than ever at this point in time. Historical prices and the context around settlement that our team of experts provide is an important leg in the portfolio management stool but we know there’s even more to it. Our work has not stopped there.

Alabaster cliffs. Normandy, France.
Alabaster Cliffs, Normandy, France

So far, we’ve successfully navigated the major changes to required European Market Infrastructure Regulation (EMIR) reporting, one of the first steps in managing a European PPA. Customers with European PPAs must now populate up to 174 data fields per transaction and submit the data in XML format to a registered trade repository. In addition to the Dodd-Frank compliance reporting we already provided to clients in the U.S., REsurety is excited to announce that we can now also submit required data for customers’ European PPAs to a registered trade repository to maintain EMIR compliance on their behalf.

We’re also closely tracking the upcoming change in the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity (ENTSEO) market price resolutions. In an effort to enhance market efficiency, European markets are implementing a 15-minute Market Time Unit (MTU). While this change is designed to create grid stability, there will be impacts to existing contracts and how projects manage invoices. Many contracts, for example, specify settlement as being hourly – leaving ambiguity about how to handle the new 15-minute prices. Our auditing team is prepared to find discrepancies in settlement calculations and navigate contract language, and we’ve been notifying clients to begin discussions with developers to understand how different counterparties will be managing this change.

As things evolve, REsurety’s Customer Experience team, our meteorologists, and market experts are here to listen and help you pave the way for a clean energy future. If you’ve been getting questions about EMIR compliance, how your European assets are performing, or want to ensure settlement accuracy as price intervals change, then you’re in the right place. Please reach out to our experts, we’re here to make managing a global portfolio truly easier.

This article contains a collection of information related to REsurety, Inc. and the commodity interest derivatives services and other services that REsurety, Inc. provides. Any statements of fact in this article are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor do they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement, nor with respect to any expression of opinion which may be contained herein. The risk of loss in trading commodity interest derivatives contracts can be substantial. Each investor must carefully consider whether this type of investment is appropriate for them or their company. Please be aware that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

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Clean Energy Buyers Association (CEBA) Connect: 2025 Spring Summit

REsurety attended the event in Minneapolis, MN.

Clean Energy Buyers Association (CEBA) Connect: 2024 Spring Summit

REsurety’s Lee Taylor, Adam Reeve, Owen Glubiak, Raul Dary, Christine Donohue, and Sam Peffer attended the Clean Energy Buyers Association Spring Summit on May 6-8, 2025, in Minneapolis, Minnesota.

We also hosted a Conversation Session at the event. The details are below:
Title: Corporate Offtake Under Attack?
Time: Tuesday, 5/6, from 3:30 – 5:00 pm
Host: Lee Taylor

Learn more or contact us by clicking the button below.

Lee Taylor, REsurety
Lee Taylor
CEO
Adam Reeve
Adam Reeve
SVP
Customer Experience
Owen Glubiak
Owen Glubiak
VP
Business Development
Raul Dary
VP
Sales
Christine Donohue
Sales Manager
Sam Peffer
Account Executive

About the summit

CEBA Connect’s Spring Summit is the premier event for energy and sustainability professionals dedicated to advancing a carbon-free energy future – and it is just around the corner. Join the CEBA community as we build common understanding of emerging market and policy trends and advance opportunities to scale clean energy to decarbonize the power sector. 

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Webinar Recording – What is Next for Scope 2 Reporting in the Greenhouse Gas Protocol: Understanding the Process Behind the Updates

The Greenhouse Gas Protocol (GHGP) is undergoing its most significant update since 2015, and the future of Scope 2 reporting is on the table. The GHGP is preparing to consider proposals and revisions to the existing market-based method, and key decisions are taking shape in technical working groups. Now is the time to understand what is being considered, how it could impact your organization, and how to get involved in the process.

This webinar hosted by the Clean Energy Buyers Association was the first in a series of webinars to explore the Scope 2 updates process from multiple perspectives. These webinars will unpack the most likely Scope 2 revisions scenarios and explore their potential implications for corporate procurement, emissions reductions, and broader decarbonization strategies. Markus Walther, CEBA’s Director of Global Clean Energy, Climate and Standards, moderated this first webinar discussion. Watch the recording below to hear from experts with insights into the ongoing working group discussions as well as buyers who shared real-world perspectives on how these changes could reshape decision-making and operations.

Watch the first webinar of this series below and understand the potential implications of Scope 2 revisions and learn how to effectively engage the Greenhouse Gas Protocol moving forward.

Speakers:

Hannah Hunt
Carbon Policy Lead
Heineken

Lee Taylor, REsurety
Lee Taylor
CEO
REsurety

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3 Ways to Maximize the Effectiveness of Your Renewable Energy PPAs

3 Ways to Maximize the Effectiveness of Your Renewable Energy PPAs

A playbook by REsurety, published by Utility Dive

3 Ways to Maximize the Effectiveness of Your Renewable Energy PPAs

To help meet their sustainability goals, more and more companies are signing clean energy power purchase agreements (PPAs). While long-term contracts such as PPAs can help companies hedge price risk in the long term, they may also result in significant short-term losses if not designed and monitored carefully.

Unfortunately, many corporate renewable energy buyers lack the teams or tools to carry out this kind of due diligence. But with the right mix of human expertise and purpose-built tools, companies can minimize risk and maximize the effectiveness of their PPAs.

This playbook outlines three key steps clean energy buyers should take to evaluate, monitor, and build an effective clean energy portfolio. You’ll learn how to:

  • Successfully monitor a project’s financial and operational performance
  • Forecast settlement payments to avoid costly surprises
  • Ensure that project locations and technology types align with your sustainability goals

Fill out the form below to access the full playbook.

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Gulf Coast Power Association Spring 2025 Conference

GCPA 2025

The REsurety team attended the event in Houston, TX.

GCPA

REsurety’s CEO, Lee Taylor and Owen Glubiak, VP of Business Development, attended the Gulf Coast Power Association Spring 2025 Conference from April 14 – 16, 2025, in Houston, TX.

Owen Glubiak
Owen Glubiak
VP, Business Development

To learn more about REsurety at the GCPA Spring 2025 Conference or to connect with our team, please contact us below.

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Webinar Recording: Achieving Budget Certainty for Clean Energy Buyers

Learn About the Financial Uncertainty of PPA Settlements and How to Improve the Predictability of PPA Budgets

How can I reduce the financial uncertainty of my PPA portfolio at a time when volatility is on the rise? This is one of many questions that was addressed.

Lee Taylor, REsurety
Lee Taylor
CEO
REsurety

In this webinar, REsurety’s Lee Taylor shared insights for navigating the challenging world of buying clean energy, after over a dozen years of helping customers quantify and manage their risks. The session kicked off with Lee explaining the inherent complexity and volatility in renewable energy contracts and the need for understanding the risks involved.

Lee shared specific use cases illustrating the impact of commodity market and weather-driven volatility, and shared the tools available to clean energy buyers seeking more predictable monthly, quarterly, and annual cashflows from their PPA portfolios.

Lee concluded the session by answering live questions from participants.

Watch the recording below.

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ERCOT Market Summit 2025

ERCOT Market Summit 2025

REsurety attended the summit in Austin, TX

ERCOT Market Summit 2025

REsurety’s VP of Business Development, Owen Glubiak, attended the ERCOT Market Summit from February 25 – 27 in Austin, TX. Contact us here.

Owen Glubiak
Owen Glubiak
VP, Business Development

About the conference

ERCOT Market Summit 2025 will provide a truly remarkable discussion by Texas policy makers, regulators, utility executives, renewable and dispatchable generation developers, financiers and other experts on how the myriad changes will affect risks, rewards, and challenges in the future, and the strategies that leading players are using to capture new opportunities now.

Infocast’s ERCOT Market Summit 2025 will provide an unparalleled deep dive into the impacts of new policies on reliability, power pricing, project development and bankability, and how to best meet the shifting needs of commercial, industrial, and retail customers.

A consummate group of experts and insiders will:

  • Share the latest information on energy legislation brewing in the 89th Legislative Session, their potential impact on the ERCOT market, and how market participants are responding
  • Assess how the new regulatory and market rule changes being implemented now will impact ERCOT in 2025 and beyond
  • Hear how well the Texas Energy Fund is working to drive investment in dispatchable assets
  • Explore the opportunities and challenges of reliably supplying power to new AI data centers and large flexible loads
  • Examine how interconnection and planning processes are changing to deal with the sudden new reality of supplying over 60 GW of additional load
  • Gain the perspectives of financiers on how policy and regulatory risks are affecting their decision-making regarding financing dispatchable generation, wind, solar, and storage projects in ERCOT
  • Explore the huge opportunities and dangers of developing storage in ERCOT
  • Evaluate how the implementation of real-time co-optimization (RTC) and a new dispatchable reliability reserve service will affect market dynamics

Last year Infocast’s ERCOT Market Summit reached new heights of attendance and audience satisfaction. Attend the ERCOT Market Summit along with 800 of your peers and take advantage of your best opportunity to connect with key players and hear their plans for the upcoming year, while obtaining critical insights into the business environment of the next five years.

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Cargill and Mercuria execute first transaction on CleanTrade

Cargill and Mercuria have collaboratively executed the first transaction as early adopters on REsurety's marketplace, CleanTrade

The Only Marketplace to Buy, Sell, and Trade Clean Energy

Price transparency and liquidity, end-to-end workflows of structured negotiation, on-platform execution, and compliance reporting

Breaking news: Cargill and Mercuria have collaboratively executed the first transaction as early adopters on CleanTrade

REsurety’s founder and CEO Lee Taylor introduces CleanTrade

CleanTrade is the only transaction platform for clean energy, providing critical liquidity to project-specific vPPAs, PPAs, and RECs. In addition to enabling fast executions through end-to-end workflows, CleanTrade provides unprecedented visibility into market pricing and terms, as well as deep insight into project and contract-specific financial and environmental metrics.

Until now, clean energy did not have access to a scalable trading platform or marketplace. As a result, clean energy procurement, trading, and risk management have remained opaque, slow, and inefficient – both financially and environmentally. The CleanTrade marketplace is a platform for buyers, sellers, and traders to provide price transparency and facilitate end-to-end transaction workflows for financially settled contracts for clean energy, or virtual power purchase agreements (VPPAs).

Contingent upon approval by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), CleanTrade will provide the first CFTC-compliant marketplace for clean energy, known as a Swap Execution Facility (SEF), and in doing so will empower clean energy markets with an unprecedented level of price transparency and liquidity as well as end-to-end workflows of structured negotiation, on-platform execution, and compliance reporting. In addition to this newly created SEF, CleanTrade supports physical power purchase agreements (PPAs) and project-specific renewable energy certificates (RECs).

CleanTrade complements REsurety’s existing software platform, CleanSight, an industry leader for insight into clean energy assets and contract performance. CleanSight offers an integrated suite of clean energy software solutions, enhanced by support from REsurety’s deep domain experts, that buyers, sellers, and investors have long trusted to identify opportunities and risks, evaluate projects, and manage their operational portfolios. Both platforms share the same goal of empowering customers to confidently deploy capital to the highest impact opportunities in the market through transparency, liquidity, and impact.

Learn more by reading the CleanTrade and Series C announcement or download the CleanTrade overview.

CleanTrade has soft launched, in order to learn more, please request a demo below.

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NAEMA East Meets West 2025

NAEMA East Meets West 2025

REsurety attended the conference in Vail, CO.

NAEMA East Meets West

REsurety’s CEO, Lee Taylor, and Owen Glubiak, VP of Business Development, attended NAEMA East Meets West 2025 from January 28 – 31 in Vail, CO. Contact us.

Owen Glubiak
Owen Glubiak
VP, Business Development

About the conference

Since 2011, when Xcel Energy launched the event then known as “Face Plant,” this gathering has become a cornerstone for energy professionals. The North American Energy Markets Association (NAEMA) is proud to continue this legacy with NAEMA’s East Meets West 2025, hosted by Xcel Energy at the Hythe in Vail, Colorado.

Set in the iconic mountain town of Vail, this year’s event combines industry insights with the unique backdrop of a community rich in history and alpine culture. Founded in 1962, Vail was established by World War II veterans from the 10th Mountain Division who trained in the nearby mountains. Drawn by the area’s pristine slopes and scenic beauty, they transformed it into a premier ski destination that would grow into one of North America’s largest ski resorts. Over the decades, Vail has retained its spirit of adventure while expanding to include world-class dining, shopping, and year-round outdoor activities.

The Hythe, a luxury resort inspired by Vail’s skiing legacy, offers an ideal venue with mountain views, après-ski lounges, and an adventure concierge ready to guide guests through the area’s rich landscape. Join NAEMA members and industry leaders from across the U.S. and Canada in Vail to advance NAEMA’s mission of fostering a dynamic and thriving energy marketplace.

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Q3 2024 State of the Renewables Market Report

A view of Q3 2024 U.S. renewable energy performance

REsurety Q3 2024 State of the Renewables Market Report

REsurety creates the State of the Renewables Market report every quarter to provide readers with data-driven insight into the value and emerging trends of renewable generation in U.S. power markets. Please fill out the form to access the full report, the Editor’s Note is below.

Editor’s Note:

Maha Mapara, REsurety
Maha Mapara
Analyst
Senior Analyst,
Analytics Services
REsurety's Devon Lukas
Devon Lukas
Lead Analyst
Associate,
Analytics Services
Adam Reeve
Adam Reeve
Editor
SVP,
Customer Experience

AI Introduces Unprecedented Power Needs: How Will Clean Energy Markets Be Impacted?

The landscape of U.S. power markets is being dramatically reshaped by an unprecedented wave of data center development, driven largely by artificial intelligence (AI) and cloud computing demand. The headlines are alarming: hyperscalers are announcing tens of billions of dollars of investments this year in data center infrastructure, ISOs are forecasting supply shortfalls and/or reliability concerns, and load forecasts are off the charts relative to historical growth rates.1-3

Figure 1: PJM demand growth forecast over time. Source: PJM.
Power Market
Figure 1: PJM demand growth forecast over time. Source: PJM.

With a historically reliable power supply and low-latency fiber network, the PJM region is currently a priority for digital infrastructure development – with more than 4GW already in Northern Virginia alone. PJM’s latest load forecast report forecasts a 1.6% annual growth rate for summer peak demand and 1.8% for winter peak demand, represented in Figure 1. Both growth rates are multiples larger than what we have seen historically, doubling from the estimates released last year with data center growth cited as a major contributor.

To put these numbers into perspective, summer peak demand in PJM is expected to increase above this year’s peak by almost 42GW in 2039 – representing a 28% increase. The winter peaks are forecasted to be 31% higher than last winter’s. This dramatic expansion puts grid reliability at risk, and also limits coal retirements in the next few years.2

What does this all mean for clean energy buyers or investors trying to plan for the future? Our guidance has generally fallen into one of three categories:

First, start with the historical facts on the ground.

All too often, we see forecasts – whether about future power prices, intra-day price volatility, wind/solar capture rates, congestion and curtailment, or emissions impacts – that are disconnected from historical realities. We find that this sort of discontinuity is very rarely warranted in power markets, even in a time of accelerated change (such as today).

Figure 2: Historical and Forecasted PJM Generator Capacity and Peak Load.
Power Market
Figure 2: Historical and forecasted PJM generator capacity and peak load.

Figure 2 shows the historical and REsurety’s forecasted generation supply (colored bars) and peak load (line) in PJM. While the market will be tight over the next few years, after that we expect load growth to be more balanced with supply growth.

The result of this will be elevated prices in peak winter and summer months over the next few years, followed by smoother seasonal profiles in later years. Overall, our forecasted PJM power pries are increasing over the next 20 years in all of our modeled scenarios.

Second, get back to fundamentals.

While AI-driven load growth is a new variable to consider when evaluating the future, it is not the only variable in power markets. Fuel prices, renewable energy penetration, hourly weather conditions, and congestion continue to dominate the value story for renewables, and likely will for some time. Consider solar capture rates in ERCOT this summer: while ERCOT set a new peak load (thanks in part to the 7+ GW of data centers in Texas), the summer capture rate for solar projects in Q3 hit a record low, dropping below 100% for the first time ever due to the rapid continued buildout of solar in Texas (Figure 3). Wind capture rates, meanwhile, have actually increased, as solar balances out the renewable mix. Our forecasts see this trend continuing into the future, with the average solar capture rate over the next decade at ~60%, as solar penetration continues to increase in ERCOT.

Figure 3: Summer solar and wind capture rates in ERCOT North.
Figure 3: Summer solar and wind capture rates in ERCOT North.

Third, do not underestimate the impact of transmission.

This is relevant to multiple areas in the era of AI load growth. Data centers are increasingly struggling to get load interconnection agreements in place, causing delays and/or relocations of planned investments. This is already acting as a brake, all else equal, slowing AI-driven load growth. Additionally, congestion is on the rise, resulting in renewables getting bottlenecked and becoming undeliverable to load.

This has both financial and environmental implications: project owners and corporate offtakers with basis-sharing provisions will be financially impacted, and the emissions benefit of the clean generation will be significantly reduced. Our recent study found that 10 million metric tonnes of CO2e were emitted in ERCOT alone last year as a consequence of transmission congestion (Figure 4).4 When developing a clean energy purchasing strategy, accurately evaluating the “deliverability” of the generated clean energy is an increasingly critical consideration.

Figure 4: Calculated ISO-wide congestion carbon-rent.
Figure 4: Calculated ISO-wide congestion carbon-rent.

The intersection of AI-driven load growth and clean energy development presents unprecedented opportunities, but success demands strategies grounded in historical data, fundamental market drivers, and realistic infrastructure constraints – and not over-reacting to headline growth numbers. At REsurety, we remain committed to providing the analytical tools and expertise needed to navigate these complexities and make informed decisions in this rapidly evolving market landscape.


Sources:
1. Bain & Company. Technology Report 2024. https://www.bain.com/globalassets/noindex/2024/bain_report_technology_report_2024.pdf, 2024.
2. PJM Resource Adequacy Planning Department. PJM Load Forecast Report. https://www.pjm.com/-/media/library/reports-notices/load-forecast/2024-load-report.ashx, 2024.
3. Gelles, D. A.I.’s Insatiable Appetite for Energy. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/11/climate/artificial-intelligence-energy-usage.html, 2024.
4. Sofia, S.; Dvorkin, Y. Carbon Impact of Intra-Regional Transmission Congestion. https://resurety.com/carbonimpact/, 2024.

Q3 2024 Report Download

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Blog Post: Quantifying the Accuracy of Commonly Used Marginal Emissions Data

Nodal granularity matters

Authored by Adam Reeve, SVP, Customer Experience, REsurety

Adam Reeve
Adam Reeve
SVP,

Customer Experience

Two common questions that REsurety gets about its Locational Marginal Emissions (LME) data are: “How accurate is it? How does it compare with other emissions data sources?”

Answering these questions is important because more and more companies are shifting their electricity decarbonization strategy to maximize emissions impact, for example through building or purchasing power from renewables in higher-impact locations. Research1-7 has shown that this strategy can enable faster and more cost-effective decarbonization relative to alternative approaches. At REsurety, we’re proud that our emissions data helps drive this sort of impactful action.

As our LME data and other emissions data sets get increasingly relied upon to guide decarbonization strategies, validating these emissions data sets becomes of growing importance. That’s why we teamed up with researchers at WattTime to study the accuracy of a number of different emissions data sets against real-world emissions impacts.

In this paper, Validating Locational Marginal Emissions with Wind Generation, the authors quantify, for the first time, the accuracy of a number of different commonly used models for estimating the emissions impacts of consumption or generation. The study uses granular data from wind farms in Texas to evaluate how changes in generation result in real-world changes in emissions on the grid.

At REsurety, we are particularly excited to see that the study found that our LME model performed the best across key metrics of accuracy, including best correlation and lowest margin of error. The paper also found that nodal granularity matters: the accuracy associated with using nodal data can result in up to 50% higher impact than lower-resolution models. While data granularity will vary around the world for a number of reasons, this underscores the importance of using nodal data in markets where it is available (which includes all U.S. ISOs).

If you are interested in getting access to this data to more confidently make impactful clean energy decisions, reach out to us at https://resurety.com/contact/.

Image: Quantifying the Accuracy of Commonly Used Marginal Emissions Data - Nodal granularity matters

1 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1040619021001196
2 https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1221978110
3 https://www.nber.org/papers/w18462
4 https://www.jstor.org/stable/26544571
5 https://dl.acm.org/doi/pdf/10.1145/3447555.3466582
6 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0959652616322065
7 https://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/es505027p

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Green New Perspective: Climate Tech Podcast

Green New Perspective REsurety

The $50B Clean Energy Problem Nobody Talks About (Until Now)

Green New Perspective: Climate Tech Podcast - The $50B Clean Energy Problem Nobody Talks About (Until Now)

In this conversation with New Perspective’s Dunja Jovanovic, Lee Taylor, founder and CEO of REsurety, discusses the company’s mission to accelerate the transition to a zero carbon future through innovative software and services for the clean energy ecosystem.

He highlights the challenges in clean energy trading, the introduction of CleanTrade as a solution, and the importance of transparency and liquidity in the market.

Additionally, Taylor shares insights on marketing strategies and the significance of measuring impact in decarbonization efforts.

Listen to the full podcast here.

Key Takeaways:

  • REsurety is focused on a zero carbon future.
  • CleanTrade addresses the lack of transaction platforms in renewables.
  • The clean energy market needs more transparency and liquidity.
  • Intermittency is a key challenge for wind and solar energy.
  • End-to-end workflows are essential for efficient transactions.
  • Marketing efforts include direct engagement and social media outreach.
  • Understanding carbon impact is crucial for effective decarbonization.
  • Real-world decarbonization must match corporate claims.
  • Investors need to optimize their impact in clean energy projects.

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Carbon Impact of Intra-Regional Transmission Congestion

Solar Energy Power Grid


Derived from the scientific paper: Carbon Impact of Intra-Regional Transmission Congestion, which received unanimous support from the ZEROgrid Independent Advisory Initiative advisors (MIT Energy Initiative, Princeton, WattTime, and REsurety). To access the study, please scan the QR code.

Overview

The emissions intensity of electricity can vary greatly within grid regions at any given time due to transmission congestion, yet current environmental policies and carbon accounting frameworks typically ignore these differences. By overlooking transmission constraints, these policies risk increasing system-wide emissions and worsening grid congestion, even when consumption and carbon-free energy are matched hourly. A notable portion of new wind and solar capacity proposed for ERCOT and PJM is planned in areas with substantial congestion (Fig. 1), but without significant transmission expansion, these projects will exacerbate congestion and limit emissions reduction. Through several case studies, we find that congestion-aware emissions metrics, such as Locational Marginal Emissions (LMEs), can more accurately measure the carbon impact of clean energy procurement and enhance market signals to support better grid planning and procurement strategies.

Key takeaways:

  1. Transmission congestion has a significant impact on price and emissions for the power grid.
    a. For example, in 2022, transmission congestion in ERCOT increased system cost by $2.8 billion and system emissions by 13 million tonnes CO2e, which is 8.7% and 7.5% of the system total respectively.

  2. In the same grid at the same hour, different locations frequently observe a difference in emission intensity of hundreds of tonnes of CO2e due to transmission constraints.
    a. Even 100% hourly matched consumption with clean energy is often not carbon-free and, in many instances, hourly matching can actually increase operational emissions relative to annual matching (Fig. 2).
    b. Hydrogen production that complies with the current proposed 45V criteria will often significantly increase real-world emissions.

  3. Current carbon accounting methods overestimate emissions reductions by overlooking intra-regional transmission congestion.
    a. Granular emission data, such as Locational Marginal Emissions rates, incorporate transmission impact, providing a more accurate measurement of the real-world carbon impact of grid connected projects.

  4. Transmission planning and infrastructure expansion must be accelerated to achieve the decarbonization potential of renewable energy development.
    a. Clean energy procurement that utilizes marginal emissions rates to inform citing will better incentivize the development of projects in areas of uncongested transmission.
Figure 1:  Contour map of 2023 average LME by county across ERCOT and PJM, with the combined wind and solar interconnection queue for each county (gray circles) overlaid.
Carbon Impact

Figure 1:  Contour map of 2023 average LME by county across ERCOT and PJM, with the combined wind and solar interconnection queue for each county (gray circles) overlaid.

Scope 

This work uses nodal LME data for the past five years in ERCOT and PJM to quantify the effects of congestion on carbon emissions and the efficacy of annual- and hourly- matching carbon accounting frameworks. The impact of intra-regional congestion is shown to be a vital component of effective carbon accounting methods and complementary policies, and policy proposals that frequently overlook this impact risk significantly increasing real-world emissions despite the operational and cost burdens of compliance with hourly matching.

Figure 2: Map of load and procured power from four different renewable project options in PJM; 2023 net emissions from matching scenarios where both rigorously hourly-matched load through load-shifting and 100% annually-matched flat load have significant net emissions.
Carbon Impact
Figure 2: Map of load and procured power from four different renewable project options in PJM; 2023 net emissions from matching scenarios where both rigorously hourly-matched load through load-shifting and 100% annually-matched flat load have significant net emissions.
Carbon Impact

Figure 2: Map of load and procured power from four different renewable project options in PJM; 2023 net emissions from matching scenarios where both rigorously hourly-matched load through load-shifting and 100% annually-matched flat load have significant net emissions.

Assuming equal emissions and perfect generation deliverability within a grid region misses a major factor in determining the induced and avoided carbon emissions, respectively, of load and renewable generation. The induced emissions of a newly built load could be reduced by hundreds of kgCO2e/MWh just by siting it in Eastern Pennsylvania instead of Virginia, for example, and a Virginian wind farm could avoid 50% more carbon than an equivalent farm in Northern Illinois. Prioritizing and incentivizing the development of new renewable projects in less congested regions could meaningfully expedite grid decarbonization, and avoid the exacerbation of already existent congestion-driven deliverability issues.

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Blog Post: Putting Our Forecasts to the Test

Continually providing value to our customers

Authored by Ryan Gao, Senior Research Associate, REsurety

Ryan Gao
Ryan Gao
Senior Research Associate

Background

At REsurety, our Weather-Smart forecasts provide customers with hourly prices and carbon impact data over the coming 20 years. These hourly forecasts are provided across a variety of weather conditions based on the past 40 years as well as five different market fundamentals scenarios. As of the end of 2023, we have made Weather-Smart forecasts available across all seven deregulated ISOs in the United States. To assess the quality of our Weather-Smart forecasts, we put our forecasts through a reality check and compared how they were performing for the first half of 2024 against observed prices and market forwards. This comparison indicated that the forecasts are fundamentally sound and highlighted the importance of providing forecasts across a variety of weather and fundamentals scenarios. Specifically, the Q4 2023 Low Gas scenario forecast produced a very close price prediction, largely because the gas price inputs used for the first half of 2024 were very close to the realized gas prices. Overall, our forecasts provide a wide variety of weather conditions and different fundamental scenarios, which deliver immense value to our customers by reflecting the uncertainty inherent in price predictions.

Monthly ATC Power Price Comparison

A closer look at the monthly around-the-clock (ATC), or average, power prices has shown that our forecasts in the Baseline fundamentals scenario, depicted in the red curves here, are lower than the OTC Global Holdings (OTCGH) power forwards, depicted in the purple curves. While REsurety’s Baseline predictions were lower than the OTCGH power forwards, both REsurety’s Weather-Smart forecasts and the OTCGH forwards were higher than the observed ATC prices during most months in the first half of 2024. However, our Baseline predictions are actually closer to the observed ATC prices. With that said, our forecasts were lower for a good reason. When considering why both our forecasts and the OTCGH power forwards were higher than the actual observed ATC prices, the biggest driver is gas prices. Back in 2023, the predicted gas prices for the first half of 2024 were significantly higher than what was actually realized. This was driven by a variety of factors including the geopolitical development in Europe and also the outlook for more extreme weather conditions based on what took place last year. However, actual gas prices were much lower than what was predicted back in 2023 due in part to the relative cooling of the geopolitical situation, and milder weather in the first half of 2024.

How Are Our Forecasts Doing Figure 1

Monthly Gas Price Comparison

When looking at a view of the gas prices from OTCGH gas forwards back in the fourth quarter of 2023, we can see that the OTCGH gas forwards definitely indicated much higher prices than what were observed later. Again, our fundamentals-based forecasts provide predictions over a variety of gas scenarios besides the Baseline which is based on the OTCGH gas forwards. We provide a High Gas scenario, as shown in the blue curves, and a Low Gas scenario, shown in the green curves, in order to reflect the distribution of outcomes that can result due to different gas price assumptions. It is visible from the graph that the gas prices in the Low Gas scenario that we used back in Q4 2023 were very close to the observed prices in the first half of 2024.

How Are Our Forecasts Doing Figure 2

Our Forecasts on Different Gas Scenarios

With the gas prices assumed in Q4 2023, we can see across different scenarios that the Q4 2023 Low Gas scenario actually predicts power prices that are quite close to what was observed over the first half of 2024. Of course, it won’t always be clear which of our scenarios will provide the best prediction in each release of our Weather-Smart forecasts. But importantly, our forecasts provide a wide range of market fundamentals scenarios and weather conditions that enable our customers to better understand the risks related to gas prices and renewable build-out assumptions, as well as the range of variability across different weather conditions.

Conclusion

This most recent comparison increased our confidence in REsurety’s Weather-Smart forecasts. The fundamentals and weather scenarios we provide reflect the uncertainties in market fundamentals, and assist our customers in evaluating and managing the risks associated with their assessments of renewable projects. We at REsurety will continue to monitor the state of our Weather-Smart forecasts and keep our customers’ best interests and priorities in mind as we move forward.

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Paper: Carbon Impact of Transmission Constraints

Carbon Impact of Transmission Constraints
Zerogrid

This paper is authored by REsurety’s Sarah Sofia and Johns Hopkins University’s Yury Dvorkin. Read the abstract and download the full paper below.

Abstract

Carbon accounting frameworks guide policy and decision-making around investments in renewable energy, making them critical to understand in the context of real-world grid operations. In the absence of empirical work assessing the effects of intra-regional congestion on carbon emissions, ongoing policy design assumes that transmission congestion within grid boundaries can be ignored. In this work, we aim to test this assumption by quantifying the frequency and severity of intra-regional congestion and its impacts on carbon emissions and prominent carbon accounting frameworks. This analysis is done in both PJM and ERCOT using nodal locational marginal emissions data. Through several case studies, we find that load that is 100% hourly-matched through load-shifting will often result in significant net operational emissions, and sometimes even increase net emissions relative to annual-matching. This work demonstrates that, in the absence of robust transmission expansion, grid-region boundaries are insufficient to ensure hourly-matching is effective. Impacts of intra-regional transmission congestion are shown to be vital components of effective carbon accounting frameworks, calling into question frequently made assumptions ignoring intra-regional congestion in studies and policy proposals.

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Blog Post: Achieve Your Financial and Sustainability Goals with Confidence

New accrual and auditing functionality

Authored by Brian Alves, Senior Product Manager, REsurety

Brian Alves, REsurety
Brian Alves
Senior Product Manager

For clean energy buyers, no matter how big their portfolio, every month and quarter brings with it a number of challenges to stay on top of the performance and financial health of their projects. REsurety’s platform provides the means for these buyers to manage their energy portfolios, providing them with tools to accurately model the complexities of their contracts, model performance of their projects when invoiced data is unavailable, and accurately track progress on their carbon emission strategies.

REsurety’s platform can now assist clean energy buyers with their accrual and auditing workflows for any contracts they’re tracking.

Accrue: A portfolio-level view of all contracts that users can see across the entire quarter. To help prepare for financial transactions, we display previously invoiced data where available, and supplement it with REsurety’s generation and revenue modeling capabilities to help users anticipate their settlements before their invoices are received.

Audit: A detailed view of a monthly billing cycle that provides comparisons of invoice data to both third-party and REsurety calculated metrics. The complexity of many contract terms means that mistakes in an invoice can influence final settlement values significantly. Once invoices have been received, our auditing tools can provide a check on these calculations and also provide users the ability to compare invoice prices with that of independent sources.

The process of identifying and establishing the cause of invoice errors, though, can be daunting. Gleaning insights through the complexities of weather and market conditions is difficult which is why REsurety’s professional services team is available to assist. REsurety’s team is a mix of meteorologists, renewable energy and power markets experts, and software engineers who have been working with clean energy leaders for well over a decade. They have the skills and experience to help give you the confidence that your invoices are as accurate as possible. We’re happy to customize a services package tailored to your specific needs.

With this new functionality, we can streamline our customer’s workflows so that they can stay on top of their renewable energy portfolios. By providing the tools to prepare for financial transactions as their contracts accrue, and to audit their invoices as they arrive, we are excited to help our customers hit their financial and sustainability goals with confidence. Get in touch to learn more.

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Webinar Recording: Partnering with S&P – Empowering Renewable Energy Markets, The Impact of Emissions Adjusted RECs

Hosted by REsurety and S&P Global Commodity Insights

REsurety logo
Emission Adjusted
S&P Global
Emissions adjusted

Renewable energy certificates (RECs) play a crucial role in steering investments toward renewable energy sources like solar, wind, and hydro. However, despite their importance, the current REC market often lacks transparency regarding the actual emissions impact of these certificates. Buyers aiming to reduce their carbon footprint may not fully understand the real-world impact of their REC purchases, leading to inefficiencies in pricing and market adoption.

This webinar, hosted by S&P Global Commodity Insights and REsurety shed light on the current dynamics of the REC market. We introduced the concept of Emissions Adjusted RECs and discussed how integrating emissions data can revolutionize REC markets, enabling more accurate and impactful trading opportunities.

Key Takeaways

  • Understanding the current REC market and its challenges.
  • Introduction to Emissions Adjusted RECs and their benefits.
  • Insights into the future of renewable energy trading.

If you had previously registered for the webinar, you can access the recording of the webinar below.

Speakers

Charlotte James, S&P Global Commodity Insights
Charlotte James
Associate Director, Renewables
S&P Global Commodity Insights
Adam Reeve, REsurety
Adam Reeve
SVP, Customer Experience
REsurety
Bruno Brunetti, S&P Global Commodity Insights
Bruno Brunetti
Head of Low Carbon Electricity Analytics
S&P Global Commodity Insights

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Webinar Recording: Exploring Carbon Matching as a Strategy in Energy Emissions Reporting

Hosted by CEBA, featuring speakers from REsurety, GM, Engie, and Baringa

REsurety logo
GM
Carbon Matching
Carbon Matching
Baringa
Carbon Matching

Watch the recording of our recent webinar that explored the benefits and challenges of carbon matching in global decarbonization efforts. The upcoming revision of the Greenhouse Gas Protocol will redefine the future of clean energy procurement, and voluntary markets are crucial in allowing clean energy customers to continue to drive systemic grid decarbonization. Carbon matching is one strategy available to customers in facilitating reporting claims and driving clean energy projects worldwide.

This webinar delved into the basics of carbon matching and its benefits for customers in financing clean energy projects and reducing emissions, as well as the challenges of implementing this approach.

Speakers:

  • Alex Foster, Sustainability Solutions Manager, Engie
  • Robert Threlkeld, Director, Global Energy Strategy, General Motors
  • Sarah Sofia, Senior Research Associate, REsurety
  • Mark Turner, Partner, Baringa

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VERGE 24

VERGE 2024

REsurety returned to VERGE, the leading climate tech event.

VERGE 24

We were excited to return to the VERGE 2024 event in San Jose, CA, on October 29-31. REsurety’s Lee Taylor, Adam Reeve, Owen Glubiak, Christine Donohue, and Sam Peffer were in attendance.

Adam Reeve
VERGE
Adam Reeve
SVP, Customer Experience
Owen Glubiak
Owen Glubiak
VP, Business Development
Christine Donohue
Sales Manager
Sam Peffer
Account Executive

Lee Taylor was also part of a panel, Putting Impacts First: Building a Comprehensive Clean Energy Procurement Strategy, on Wednesday, October 30. Learn more about the panel below.

Title: Putting Impacts First: Building a Comprehensive Clean Energy Procurement Strategy

Description:
Businesses face pressure from investors, competitors, and employees to excel in sustainability when procuring energy. It is easy to get caught up in the rush to meet targets, but this is more than just a numbers game. We are all part of a more significant movement to combat climate change.

Join our panel of thought leaders to delve into research, understand the impact of emissions and particulate matter, and discover best practices to humanize your approach to everything from environmental attribute certificates (EACs) to emissions mitigation across your business to further solidify your environmental strategy.

Location: LL21E, Convention Center

Speakers:
Daniel Howard, CEO, Quantum Energy
Faraz Ahmad, Operations Manager, Amazon
Katie Robinson, Sustainability Strategist, Akamai Technologies
Lee Taylor, CEO, REsurety
Shalini Majumdar, Manager, Sustainability Strategy & Implementation, ENGIE Impact
Tom Harper, Partner – US Energy Market Advisory, Baringa Partners

About the event

VERGE 24 is a three day day climate tech conference that is the center of gravity for professionals catalyzing transformative, profitable change through decarbonizing their operations and supply chains. It is where practitioners doing the hard, ongoing work of integrating climate solutions share their successes, setbacks and insights to smooth the path forward for all.

Join more than 6,000 leaders on October 29-31 in San Jose, CA to discover what it takes to deploy climate tech at scale. Tap into the knowledge, connections and inspiration needed to de-risk your strategies and supercharge your impact alongside other visionaries, experts and innovators leading the way to a regenerative and just future.

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S&P Global Commodity Insights Financing US Power Conference

REsurety was excited to return to the event

S&P Global Commodity Insights Financing US Power Conference

We were excited to attend the S&P Global Commodity Insights Financing US Power Conference again on October 23-25, 2024, in Houston, TX. REsurety’s Emma Marjollet and Steven Nixon were in attendance.

Emma Marjollet
Emma Marjollet
Account Executive
Steven Nixon
Account Executive

About the event

The 2024 Financing US Power Conference is set to be an unparalleled gathering of prominent figures and specialists from the power finance and generation sectors. This year, our speakers collectively manage over $8.5 trillion in assets, underscoring the caliber and influence of the insights and discussions you will experience. Join us for engaging conversations, bespoke networking sessions, and invaluable perspectives you won’t find anywhere else.

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Paper: Validating Locational Marginal Emissions Models with Wind Generation

This paper, authored by Nat Steinsultz, Pierre Christian, Joel Cofield, Gavin McCormick, and Sarah Sofia was published by IOP Science in Environmental Research: Energy, Volume 1. You can find the full paper here, or download a PDF version by clicking the button below.

Paper: Validating Locational Marginal Emissions Models with Wind Generation

Abstract

Increasingly large amounts of electric supply and load are being deliberately operated or sited on the basis of marginal emissions factor (MEF) models. Validating and calibrating such models is therefore of growing policy importance. This paper uses a natural experiment involving variation in relative changes in wind generation potential at wind farms in the ERCOT power grid to create a benchmark MEF and examine the relative accuracy of several common classes of short term MEF models. This work focuses on MEFs at the level of a few individual generating nodes, a much smaller geographic scale than the Balancing Authority (BA) or load zone. Additionally, the use of wind generation potential as a regressor allows us to factor in wind curtailment, in contrast to previous work. We evaluate multiple prevalent existing MEF models and find that both dispatch and statistical MEF models have a high degree of agreement with the benchmark MEF, while heat rate and average emissions do not. We also find that the emissions reduction benefits of optimizing electricity with MEFs using a geographically granular model instead of a BA-wide model are 1.4, 1.3 and 1.5 times larger for dispatch, statistical and heat rate models, respectively.

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Q2 2024 State of the Renewables Market Report

A view of Q2 2024 U.S. renewable energy performance

Q2 2024 State of the Renewables Market Cover

REsurety creates the State of the Renewables Market report every quarter to provide readers with data-driven insight into the value and emerging trends of renewable generation in U.S. power markets. Please fill out the form to access the full report, the Editor’s Note is below.

Editor’s Note:

Maha Mapara, REsurety
Maha Mapara
Analyst
Senior Analyst,
Analytics Services
REsurety's Devon Lukas
Devon Lukas
Lead Analyst
Associate,
Analytics Services
REsurety's Carl Ostridge
Carl Ostridge
Editor
SVP,
Analytics Services

Deliverability: Can Clean Energy Reach Consumers?

Clean energy generators are the fastest growing sources of new energy on grids across the country. But if the impact of those new projects is going to be maximized, and utilized meaningfully in hourly matching carbon offset techniques, the country also needs to invest large sums in improving transmission infrastructure to get the clean energy to load centers. There have been a couple of recent announcements aiming to speed up the development of much-needed transmission (e.g. FERC Order 1920 and Department of Energy TSED funding), but how much of a problem is transmission currently?

To answer this question, we’ll use the concept of “deliverability” – in other words, how much clean energy can reach consumers in a given location. The concept of deliverability is already built into the market prices that system operators publish. There are three components to Locational Marginal Prices (LMPs); energy, congestion, and line losses. Line losses tend to contribute relatively little to the overall prices, and so we can use the difference in LMPs between two locations to estimate the deliverability of the energy. When the LMP at a generator diverges materially from the LMP at the load center, this is a sign that the location is experiencing congestion – either high prices that encourage generation, or low (even negative) prices resulting in renewable generator curtailment.

For this analysis, we’ve defined power as “deliverable” if the LMP at the generator is within 10% of the LMP at the load center. Renewable generation output during periods with greater than 10% LMP divergence is likely subject to congestion, and is therefore considered undeliverable. This is a somewhat simple metric, but it aims to boil down a complex issue into something digestible and relevant; after all, deliverability is a key component in the developing hourly matching frameworks.

In Figure 1, the 12-month trailing average of deliverability is shown for clean energy generators in ERCOT and PJM and load centers in Houston and Chicago, respectively. Historically, only between half and two-thirds of clean power is “deliverable” to these major load centers. This highlights that transmission congestion has been, and still is, a meaningful issue. It’s also notable that despite higher penetration levels of wind and solar in ERCOT, the deliverability of clean energy to Chicago has dropped more rapidly since the start of 2021.

Figure 1: Trailing 12-month average clean energy deliverability to Houston and Chicago.
Figure 1: Trailing 12-month average clean energy deliverability to Houston and Chicago.

When we look a little deeper at the ERCOT deliverability, separating the results for wind and solar projects, the story of the flatter deliverability trend becomes clearer. The deliverability of wind in ERCOT has been trending downwards over the past few years, while solar has trended upwards. There are two factors in favor of solar’s better deliverability: timing and location. Solar’s on-peak generation coincides with higher load, leading to fewer congestion issues. Furthermore, the operational solar fleet is more geographically dispersed compared to the wind fleet, meaning fewer solar projects are subject to major transmission constraints (such as in the Texas Panhandle and Gulf Coast).

Table 1: Deliverability of ERCOT wind and solar energy to Houston.
Table 1: Deliverability of ERCOT wind and solar energy to Houston.

Of course, these trends will evolve over time as more clean energy is added to the grid, thermal generators are decommissioned, energy storage capacity expands, gross and net load profiles evolve, and transmission either stays constant or gets upgraded. This metric is just the beginning of our efforts to analyze this complex issue. A REsurety whitepaper on deliverability is in the works, covering more regions and diving deeper into the underlying causes and resulting carbon impacts.

Q2 2024 Report Download

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Blog Post: Hot Grid Summer 2024

Jessica Tomaszewski

Insights Gained from the 2023 ERCOT Heat Event

Authored by Dr. Jessica Tomaszewski, Senior Research Scientist, REsurety

Dr. Jessica Tomaszewski
Senior Research Scientist

Summer is well underway across the United States, ushering in another year of heat and drought. The National Weather Service has issued over 4,800 excessive heat warnings nationwide this summer, invoking memories of the anomalous heat many parts of the country experienced just a year ago. The state of Texas notably experienced its second-warmest summer on record in 2023, with an average temperature over 85°F, four degrees warmer than the 20th century average. Energy demand and power prices soared alongside the temperatures – all variables that can be difficult to predict and prepare for without the right tools and data.

We at REsurety are reaffirming our commitment to data-driven practices and are reflecting on the insights gained from the summer of 2023 in order to best understand and predict heat waves’ impacts on the electrical grid in 2024 and beyond.

What caused the heat wave?

The historic heat in 2023 was brought to Texas via the effects of a heat dome, a meteorological phenomenon characterized by the presence of extreme heat over a region that lingers for an extended period of time.

To best understand heat domes, it helps to have a bit of knowledge about atmospheric dynamics. Generally, the atmosphere is a three-dimensional fluid, and the upper layer affects the surface conditions (and vice versa). An important feature of the upper level is the jet stream, a fast current of air four to eight miles above the ground that directly affects (and is affected by) surface weather patterns while acting as a sharp boundary between warm and cold air masses. When the jet stream takes on a more wavy shape, troughs and ridges form, which drive weather at the surface below. Ridges form when the jet stream arcs northward, and they are associated with warm air, high pressure aloft, and dry, sunny weather at the surface.

During a heat dome event, a stronger-than-usual ridge in the jet stream like the one present in the summer of 2023 causes a hot air mass to form (illustrated below). A key feature of a heat dome is that it is self-sustaining, meaning it is fueled by its own impacts. As the hot air in a heat dome rises and expands, it creates a tall column of high pressure that pushes warm air down toward the ground (right), which suppresses clouds and precipitation. Air sinking against the ground leads to compressional warming, as dictated by the laws of thermodynamics. The combination of ample sunshine and compressional warming warms the surface even more. Warm surface conditions quickly dry out the soil moisture, another contributor to efficient heating. The now-hotter air mass continues to expand vertically in the atmosphere and deepens the ridge in the jet stream, and the cycle persists, sometimes for weeks at a time.

Insights Gained from the 2023 ERCOT Heat Event - Heat Dome
Insights Gained from the 2023 ERCOT Heat Event - Heat Dome

Source: REsurety

How do heat waves impact demand and renewable energy production?

Such extreme heat can have severe or even deadly human impacts, so air conditioning is widely used to keep people safe and comfortable. As more homes utilize air conditioning, powering those units requires significant energy from the electrical grid, which in the state of Texas is largely operated by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), to meet that demand.

The relationship between hot temperatures and energy demand can be seen in the below hourly time series at a point in central Texas over the month of August 2023. Temperature is shaded in orange, with a horizontal line at 100 ºF to draw attention to the large quantity of consecutive 100+ ºF days that occurred. The blue line represents the total ERCOT grid demand, with the pre-2023 demand record of 80 GW dashed horizontally to emphasize how many times that value was surpassed in 2023. A new ERCOT demand record of 85 GW was set on August 10.

The heat and high demand led to high power prices as well, which is seen in the green plot of real-time prices at a nearby hub. Prices surpassed $1,000/MWh over a dozen times, and hit the $5,000 price maximum on August 17. Interestingly, the highest price day does not coincide with the day with the highest temperatures and demand, which occurred on August 10.

Source: REsurety

The reason for the difference in power prices between two similarly hot days largely lies in the availability (or lack thereof) of low-cost sources of electricity generation like wind and solar. The arrows in the above time series represent the relative magnitude and direction of the wind speeds experienced in ERCOT. On August 17, weak winds caused wind generation to dip below the ERCOT “low wind” scenario, which, when coupled with temperatures above 100 ºF, forced ERCOT to utilize more expensive generation sources to meet high demand, leading to the extreme prices seen on that day.

Generally speaking, heat domes can have variable impacts on renewable generation depending on the energy source and event-specific weather conditions occurring at the surface. According to Vaisala’s Climate Reference Tool, the 2023 heat dome led to clear, dry conditions that were up to 20% sunnier than usual over much of Texas, allowing above-average production of solar energy across the month. Conversely, the heat dome did not have a clear impact on average wind speeds: Wind speeds in some areas of Texas were above average in August 2023 when compared to a typical August, while others were below average. Data does not show a correlation between temperature and wind generation in ERCOT. Some of the hottest days did have low wind generation (like August 17) but others didn’t. Wind generation isn’t always low on hot days, though from a grid reliability and price management perspective, it’s important to plan for the scenario where it might be.

How should extreme events be accounted for in power price forecasts?

Atypical weather conditions like heat waves can both increase demand and limit the generation that’s available to meet that demand, thereby affecting power prices. The status quo approach in power price forecasting is to assume weather conditions in the future will resemble a single, “normal” weather year. The result of the weather-normal year approach is that price forecasts lack awareness of the extreme price events produced by extreme weather events.

However, REsurety takes a different, Weather-Smart approach: Instead of using a typical weather year to create a power price forecast, we incorporate extreme events into our forecasts by simulating demand and generation under a variety of weather conditions. The value of this approach is illustrated in the plot below, wherein the hourly forecast power prices are plotted for a June day in 2030. The black line denotes the price of power that we forecast if we assume weather conditions resemble a typical weather year of 2013, and all of the individual colored lines indicate the power prices that we forecast based on different weather conditions. It is clear that the resulting forecasted power prices for a given day are largely impacted by the weather conditions used as input for the model and that some weather conditions can lead to extreme power prices.*

Outlook

Heat domes are not a Texas-specific phenomena. In June 2021, an anomalous ridge in the jet stream formed in a particularly unusual location over the Pacific Northwest, causing record high temperatures, severe drought, and wildfires. This past June, a heat dome with triple-digit heat indices stagnated over the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic regions for over a week, prompting the grid operators at PJM to issue a Hot Weather Alert to mitigate expected increases in electricity demand. Much of the continental United States needs to be prepared for the potential of extreme heat.

Average Number of Heat Waves Per Year

Furthermore, the average quantity, intensity, and length of heat waves have steadily increased in the United States over the last several decades. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, extreme heat waves are predicted to be almost twice as likely as they are today and nine times more likely than they were in the pre-industrial period [1]. As extreme heat waves become more common, understanding the intersection between weather, power markets, and energy economics will only become more critical, and REsurety will continue to lead efforts to advance this understanding.

REsurety is a mission-driven organization dedicated to accelerating the world’s transition to a zero-carbon future. We provide software and services to support both the financial and sustainability goals of clean energy buyers, sellers, and investors. Our software offers data-driven insights at various stages of the project lifecycle from initial exploration to portfolio management. Our services leverage our domain expertise and deliver solutions tailored to the unique needs of our customers. Reach out to learn more: [email protected].

*While REsurety’s Weather-Smart approach offers advanced forecasting capabilities, users should be aware that all projections are subject to uncertainties and potential inaccuracies.

References

[1] IPCC Summary for Policymakers from Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

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Blog Post: ERCOT Price Corrections

The settlement impact explained.

Authored by Marion Cundari, Senior Associate, Analytics, REsurety

Marion Cundari
Senior Associate, Analytics

Did you know that the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) corrects market prices after publication? Often price corrections occur before the price is considered final and published. But what about when price corrections occur after market prices are considered final?

The latter scenario, while infrequent, does happen. In the past nine months there have been two scenarios where prices were retroactively updated. When ERCOT deems a published price to need a correction, the process by which the price is updated is lengthy as it requires the ERCOT board to approve the proposed price change. Often more than a month passes between the price interval to be corrected and the publication of the corrected price.

Given the lag in publication of a corrected price, there is a large potential to impact contract settlement accuracy if price corrections are not consistently monitored and incorporated into settlement.

In the past nine months there were two instances of retroactive price corrections issued by ERCOT. In October 2023, there was a brief price correction that was very large in magnitude (over $2,600/MWh). Additionally, on April 23, 2024, ERCOT made corrections to January and February 2024 prices, changing retroactively yet again, this time for more periods but by smaller amounts. Both examples have the potential to significantly impact contract settlement and a compounding impact on a portfolio of contracts.

The original published price for one hour in mid-October was $2,667.64. It was later corrected, over a month later, to $23.70. This is a large change in price and its impact varied based on project generation over the specific interval. In the below table, example Wind Transaction 1 was generating at peak capacity over the correction interval while example Wind Transaction 2 was not.

October 2023 Price Correction Example Settlement Impact
October 2023 Price Correction Example Settlement Impact

In January and February, price adjustments spanned multiple hours on January 15-19 and February 28, 2024. The severity of the price updates was far less drastic than the above discussed October price correction. On average, across the roughly 200 impacted 5-min intervals and ERCOT North, West, and South hubs, prices changed by -$2.19. While the price change was smaller in magnitude, actual cash settlement differences were significant at some transactions. It is worth noting that the impacted intervals were primarily after sunlight hours, therefore negligibly impacting solar transactions.

January and February 2024 Price Correction Example Impact
January and February 2024 Price Correction Example Impact

At REsurety, our calculation services team performs monthly price verification to ensure our settlement calculations always use the correct prices as published by each ISO. This verification process includes monitoring Independent System Operators (ISO) market notices. Price corrections in ERCOT will always be flagged within a market notice from ERCOT before the price eventually gets corrected. REsurety’s verification also includes notification to transaction parties of expected price corrections for previous periods before they show up in settlement reports.

Learn how our calculation services team can assist you, contact us.

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American Clean Power Resource & Technology Conference

REsurety’s Sarah Sofia and Aaron Perry spoke on two different panels at the event

ACP Resource & Technology 2024
Sarah Sofia
Sarah Sofia
Senior Research Associate
Aaron Perry
Aaron Perry
Director,
Analytics Services

REsurety attended the ACP Resource & Technology Conference from September 30 – October 2, 2024 in Phoenix, Arizona. REsurety’s Aaron Perry, Director of Analytics Services, joined the panel, The Green Hydrogen Saga on Tuesday, October 1. Sarah Sofia, Senior Research Associate at REsurety, joined the panel, Advancements in Transmission Technology – Focus on GETs on Wednesday, October 2. Learn more about the sessions below.

Title: The Green Hydrogen Saga

Location: Regency C

Speakers:
Session Chair: Marcel Mibus, Apex Clean Energy
Presenter: Dan W. Bernadett, P.E., ArcVera Renewables
Presenter: Kaitlin Brunik, National Renewable Energy Lab
Presenter: Shadi Darvish, DNV
Presenter: Aaron T. Perry, REsurety

Title: Advancements in Transmission Technology – Focus on GETs

Location: Regency C

Speakers:
Session Chair: Sarah Toth, Rocky Mountain Institute
Presenter: Ted I. Block-Rubin, Smart Wires Inc.
Presenter: Sarah Sofia, REsurety
Presenter: Allison Wilkes, LineVision

Register to attend the conference here.

About the event

Join your peers as we build the future of the clean energy industry. Share and discover cutting-edge technological innovations and advancements in the area of renewable energy assessment and performance and reliability improvements at ACP’s Resource & Technology Conference.

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Webinar Recording: How to Create an Accurate and Useful Capture Rate

REsurety logo
Capture Rate
Marathon Capital

Marathon Capital’s Joan Hutchinson shared her expertise

As the world shifts from a fossil-fuel-driven, high carbon environment to the decarbonized future of tomorrow, Marathon Capital is dedicated to supporting businesses, governments, and non-governmental organizations navigate the risks and challenges associated with their environmental impact.

In this webinar, REsurety’s Blair Allen spoke with Marathon’s Joan Hutchinson about how she helps customers navigate the challenges in valuing wind and solar energy. She drew from experience and explained how she’s helped a variety of customers understand capture prices, capture rates, and the different ways to calculate them. Questions they answered included:

  • Where different generation profiles may appear in decision making and why.
  • How to interpret the differences in value when using different generation profiles, and the impacts of those differences.
  • When to turn to historical data to support forecasted value analysis.

The event was interactive and there was a Q & A session after the presentation. Watch the full recording of the webinar below.

About the speakers

Blair Allen, Director, Customer Success, REsurety

Blair Allen, REsurety
Capture Rate

Blair Allen is a clean energy executive dedicated to accelerating the world’s transition to a zero-carbon future. Throughout his 5 year tenure with REsurety, Blair has held various positions across the organization including product management and his current role leading the customer success team.

In his current position, Blair plays a critical role in ensuring that the company’s customers – clean energy buyers, sellers, and investors – are all able to optimize the REsurety platform to meet their financial and sustainability goals. Customers rely on Blair and his team for industry knowledge, technical expertise, and willingness to suggest innovative solutions to overcome customers’ unique challenges. 

Prior to joining the REsurety team, Blair worked as a Senior Market Analyst offering price and congestion forecasts to customers with physical or financial risk in MISO.

Blair holds a Bachelor’s degree in Philosophy from Bucknell University, with a minor in Economics

Joan Hutchinson, Managing Director & Co-Head, Offtake Advisory, Marathon Capital

Joan Hutchinson, Managing Director & Co-Head of Offtake Advisory, is based in Marathon Capital’s San Francisco office. Joan advises corporate clients to set and meet sustainability goals, including energy offtake agreements, carbon reduction, and energy transition strategies. She advises developers on physical and financial offtake agreements to support financing and enhance project value. Joan has advised Nestlé, TC Energy, and Tokyo Gas on recent sustainability initiatives.

Joan has over 25 years of experience in North American energy markets and renewable energy project development. Before joining Marathon Capital, Joan was Vice President of Origination & Business Development at Ørsted A/S, where she led the origination of wind, solar, and storage projects resulting in over 1600 MW of transactions in three years. Many of the transactions Joan completed were power purchase agreements with first-time corporate buyers.

Prior to Ørsted, Joan was SVP Origination & Marketing for Ridgeline Energy, responsible for negotiating contracts for the sale of power and renewable energy credits from renewable projects, leading solar development, and the acquisition of wind and solar projects. Joan was Director of Origination at Citigroup Energy and held various origination and trading positions with Powerex, Inc.

Joan received her Bachelor of Electrical Engineering from the University of Victoria in Victoria, B.C., and holds a Series 79 license.

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Blog Post: REsurety Adds Support for Budgeting to Portfolio Tracker

Tara Bartley

Customers can now easily find forecasted metrics for their PPA and REC budgeting workflows

Authored by Tara Bartley, VP, Marketing, REsurety

Tara Bartley
VP of Marketing at REsurety
Tara Bartley
VP, Marketing

As part of the REsurety software platform, Portfolio Tracker was designed specifically for clean energy buyers and investors to forecast, audit, and explain the financial and environmental outcomes of clean energy projects and contracts. It was developed to analyze how wind and solar contracts are performing and what risks they hold; predict how settlement might occur going forward; and to track project and contract-specific carbon emissions and financial performance.

With today’s release of a new budgeting dashboard, customers can easily access forecasted settlement metrics for their contracts, including forecasts for the next month, quarter, the remainder of the current year, and for the following year. Long-term financial settlement forecasts, and forecasts for generation (and associated REC production), are available in the tool as well. Importantly, all of REsurety’s forecasts are Weather-Smart – meaning they take into account the wide range of future weather conditions that can have an immense impact on the price of power. Moreover, Portfolio Tracker automatically accounts for contract terms such as price floors, for example, applying them at the hourly level and aggregating settlement calculations to produce forecasts that are specific to individual renewable energy projects and contracts.*

Portfolio Tracker Budgeting Tab

The budgeting dashboard was designed with our customers’ renewable energy portfolio budgeting workflows foremost in mind and we are excited to help our customers hit their financial and sustainability goals with confidence. Get in touch to learn more about Portfolio Tracker.

*While Portfolio Tracker offers advanced forecasting and auditing capabilities, users should be aware that all projections are subject to uncertainties and potential inaccuracies.

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Policy Brief: Assessing the Impact of Voluntary Actions on the Grid

A Consensus Paper from ZEROgrid’s Impact Advisory Initiative, published by RMI and ZEROgrid

Assessing the Impact of Voluntary Actions on the Grid

Executive Summary

Over the past 10 years, voluntary procurement of clean energy by corporations has been a tremendous driver of renewable energy development. Since 2014, large companies have signed procurement contracts supporting the development of over 70 gigawatts of renewable energy in the United States,1 in addition to purchasing renewable energy certificates (RECs), providing tax equity financing, and advocating regionally and nationally for more clean energy deployment. These voluntary procurement trends are continuing to scale and expand into other markets such as Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan.2

The urgency of the climate crisis is prompting many large energy consumers to consider how they can assess the impact of various actions on grid decarbonization and reliability. Such an assessment can be best made using consequential emissions impact analysis, which employs various approaches to estimate the difference between total global emissions in different possible states of the world.

Although many authors have published on consequential emissions impact analysis, there have been different views and until now no joint statement from differing authors on areas of consensus and how to resolve discrepant conclusions.

To provide greater clarity to corporate actors, ZEROgrid created the Impact Advisory Initiative, or IAI. The IAI comprises a group of expert practitioners from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Princeton University, REsurety, RMI, and WattTime who collectively identified key points of consensus as well as areas requiring further research.i

This paper provides an overview of the IAI’s findings regarding emerging areas of consensus about consequential emissions impact analysis, its implications, and areas where further research is required.

Areas of Consensus:

  1. Defining Impact. The true impact of any voluntary corporate action (or any action) is the difference in total emissions between a world where the action was taken versus one in which it was not taken.
  2. Components of impact. This impact is the sum of several different contributing effects, which must include the effects over the lifetime of the intervention — how an intervention changes the short-run operations of power plants, and structural change, i.e., how it changes the total supply of different power plants in the long run — to fully capture the impact of an action.
  3. Estimates versus true values. The field has a number of ways to produce estimates of total emissions impact and its components. Although there is agreement regarding how changes to short-run operations can be quantified, the field currently lacks — and indeed may always lack — any generally accepted way to empirically verify estimates of structural change. Therefore, any approach that seeks to measure total impact has (potentially significant levels of) uncertainty.

i The ZEROgrid initiative brings together a group of corporate actors, including Akamai, General Motors, HASI, Meta, Prologis, Salesforce, and Walmart, seeking to drive deep decarbonization alongside increased power grid reliability and affordability, working in collaboration with emissions and reliability experts. Additional information is available at https://zerogrid.org/.

Download the policy brief

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View the brief on RMI’s website.

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Q1 2024 State of the Renewables Market Report

A view of Q1 2024 U.S. renewable energy performance

REsurety creates the State of the Renewables Market report every quarter to provide readers with data-driven insight into the value and emerging trends of renewable generation in U.S. power markets. Please fill out the form to access the full report, the Editor’s Note is below.

Editor’s Note:

REsurety's Devon Lukas
Devon Lukas
Lead Analyst
Senior Analyst, Analytics Services
REsurety's Carl Ostridge
Carl Ostridge
Editor
SVP, Analytics Services

Record-Breaking Winter for Solar: Behind The Scenes

Solar output in ERCOT has been in the news as of late, with the buzz around the record-breaking 17.2 GW peak on February 19th amplified by the 18.7 GW peak on March 28th. While impressive, these records are actually not broken as often, or by as much, as one might initially expect given the amount of recent solar buildout. The current generation record would be 300 MW higher were it not for the complex interactions between the weather, transmission infrastructure, and tax incentives.

First, and perhaps most obviously, the weather impacts renewable generation and demand, and when there’s too much of the former and not enough of the latter, renewable projects are curtailed. Net load (total load minus renewable generation) is a useful metric to highlight this behavior. Figure 1 shows solar curtailment as a function of net load for Q1 2024. It’s clear that as net load drops below 20 GW, solar generation starts to be curtailed, increasing quickly as net load reduces further. These grid-wide supply and demand balancing issues that lead to renewable energy curtailment also play out on a local level, caused by transmission constraints. Even if there’s enough demand overall on the grid, if the renewable energy is located behind a transmission constraint, curtailment will still happen. Finally, there’s the tax incentives – wind projects tend to receive the Production Tax Credit (PTC) while solar projects tend to receive the Investment Tax Credit (ITC). Since the PTC is earned on a per megawatt-hour basis, many wind projects continue generating even when wholesale prices are negative. On the other hand, ITC-qualified solar projects will curtail as soon as wholesale prices become negative.

Net Load and Solar Curtailment
Market Report
Figure 1: Net Load and Solar Curtailment, January – March 2024. Record-breaking periods shown in blue, missed records shown in green.

So, in terms of setting solar generation records, there needs to be an alignment of these variables – high solar generation potential, relatively low wind generation, relatively high load, and no meaningful transmission constraints. Figure 2 shows two days in February with different conditions and different outcomes. The first is February 19th, when there were favorable conditions and a new record was set – the skies were clear, wind output was low during the day, and net load stayed above 20 GW. A few days later on February 24th, conditions were not as favorable – skies were clear in the morning, but wind output was increasing and net load dropped below 20 GW. This meant solar projects were curtailed and while a new solar generation record 300 MW above the February 19th level could have been set, it was not.

Market Report
Figure 2: Actual and Uncurtailed Solar and Wind on February 19th, 2024 (left) and February 24th, 2024 (right) Compared to Net Load (load minus actual wind and solar generation).

It’s also important to note the seasonality in these trends. The time of year makes these solar output records more unlikely – the first quarter of the year tends to be windy and load levels are on the low side too. As the summer approaches, wind generation will be lower on average and load will be higher. More solar projects will also likely be commissioned by then, so expect more records to be broken (and perhaps more frequently). Looking further forward, it will be interesting to see if some of the new solar projects elect for Production Tax Credits and therefore start to operate during periods of negative prices. If so, expect even more records to be set.

However, lost generation due to curtailment isn’t all doom and gloom. By definition, renewables make up a large proportion of the grid’s generation during periods of low net load and curtailment. For corporate buyers measuring their impact in emissionality terms, this means the ‘lost’ emissions impact due to curtailment is relatively small – most of that curtailed energy would have displaced other clean fuels (rather than fossil generators). This is especially true during periods of low net load, where high wind generation will keep marginal emissions rates low regardless of the level of solar curtailment. Figure 3 shows the average ERCOT Locational Marginal Emissions rate declining as renewable energy curtailments increase.

Daily Average ERCOT LME
Market Report
Figure 3: Daily Average ERCOT LME (kgCO2e / MWh) and Renewable Energy Curtailment in January, 2024.

As always with power markets, there’s a lot more going on behind the headlines of record breaking solar output.

In addition to downloading the report, you may want to watch a recording of a webinar on the Q1 report that we hosted in May, with the editor, Carl Ostridge, and lead analyst, Devon Lukas. They shared findings, insights, and hosted a live Q&A.

Q1 2024 Report Download

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Webinar Recording: Q1 2024 Quarterly Report Findings, Insight, and Q&A

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REsurety creates the State of the Renewables Market report every quarter to provide readers with data-driven insight into the value and emerging trends of renewable generation in U.S. power markets. We use our domain expertise in power markets, atmospheric science, and renewable offtake to analyze thousands of locations and summarize key findings.

In this webinar, editor Carl Ostridge and lead analyst Devon Lukas discussed the editor’s note, which examined how there’s more than meets the eye when it comes to ERCOT’s record-breaking solar generation. They also unpacked key findings highlighted in the Q1 2024 edition of the report, including recent trends and drivers behind renewable energy value across the U.S.

The session was interactive and there was an extensive Q&A session after the presentation. Watch the recording or read the transcript below.

About the speakers

Carl Ostridge, SVP, Analytics Services

REsurety's Carl Ostridge

Carl Ostridge has more than 15 years of energy experience, specializing in energy risk management, electricity markets, and renewable energy project performance. Prior to joining REsurety, Mr. Ostridge worked for DNV GL analyzing and improving the accuracy of wind farm energy analyses and developing models to predict wind farm energy output. His extensive industry experience and proven analytical skills support REsurety’s industry-leading tools and expertise in weather-related risk and valuation for renewable energy projects.

Mr. Ostridge holds a Master’s degree in Astrophysics from the University of Exeter in the UK.

Devon Lukas, Senior Analyst

REsurety's Devon Lukas

Devon Lukas is a data analyst with experience developing data visualization tools. Before joining REsurety, she conducted undergraduate research on floating offshore wind turbine structures, completed greenhouse gas emission analyses for the Pioneer Valley region of Massachusetts as well as the UMass Mount Ida campus, and developed various computational tools for renewable energy data sources. At REsurety, Devon is part of the pre-trade services team in which she primarily structures and analyzes weather-related risk mitigation contracts for clean energy buyers & sellers.

Devon holds a Bachelor of Science degree with a double major in Physics & Astronomy, and an integrated concentration in Renewable Energy from the University of Massachusetts in Amherst, Massachusetts.

Transcript