Tag: REsurety

Q1 2024 State of the Renewables Market Report

A view of Q1 2024 U.S. renewable energy performance

REsurety creates the State of the Renewables Market report every quarter to provide readers with data-driven insight into the value and emerging trends of renewable generation in U.S. power markets. Please fill out the form to access the full report, the Editor’s Note is below.

Editor’s Note:

REsurety's Devon Lukas
Devon Lukas
Lead Analyst
Senior Analyst, Analytics Services
REsurety's Carl Ostridge
Carl Ostridge
Editor
SVP, Analytics Services

Record-Breaking Winter for Solar: Behind The Scenes

Solar output in ERCOT has been in the news as of late, with the buzz around the record-breaking 17.2 GW peak on February 19th amplified by the 18.7 GW peak on March 28th. While impressive, these records are actually not broken as often, or by as much, as one might initially expect given the amount of recent solar buildout. The current generation record would be 300 MW higher were it not for the complex interactions between the weather, transmission infrastructure, and tax incentives.

First, and perhaps most obviously, the weather impacts renewable generation and demand, and when there’s too much of the former and not enough of the latter, renewable projects are curtailed. Net load (total load minus renewable generation) is a useful metric to highlight this behavior. Figure 1 shows solar curtailment as a function of net load for Q1 2024. It’s clear that as net load drops below 20 GW, solar generation starts to be curtailed, increasing quickly as net load reduces further. These grid-wide supply and demand balancing issues that lead to renewable energy curtailment also play out on a local level, caused by transmission constraints. Even if there’s enough demand overall on the grid, if the renewable energy is located behind a transmission constraint, curtailment will still happen. Finally, there’s the tax incentives – wind projects tend to receive the Production Tax Credit (PTC) while solar projects tend to receive the Investment Tax Credit (ITC). Since the PTC is earned on a per megawatt-hour basis, many wind projects continue generating even when wholesale prices are negative. On the other hand, ITC-qualified solar projects will curtail as soon as wholesale prices become negative.

Figure 1: Net Load and Solar Curtailment, January – March 2024. Record-breaking periods shown in blue, missed records shown in green.

So, in terms of setting solar generation records, there needs to be an alignment of these variables – high solar generation potential, relatively low wind generation, relatively high load, and no meaningful transmission constraints. Figure 2 shows two days in February with different conditions and different outcomes. The first is February 19th, when there were favorable conditions and a new record was set – the skies were clear, wind output was low during the day, and net load stayed above 20 GW. A few days later on February 24th, conditions were not as favorable – skies were clear in the morning, but wind output was increasing and net load dropped below 20 GW. This meant solar projects were curtailed and while a new solar generation record 300 MW above the February 19th level could have been set, it was not.

Figure 2: Actual and Uncurtailed Solar and Wind on February 19th, 2024 (left) and February 24th, 2024 (right) Compared to Net Load (load minus actual wind and solar generation).

It’s also important to note the seasonality in these trends. The time of year makes these solar output records more unlikely – the first quarter of the year tends to be windy and load levels are on the low side too. As the summer approaches, wind generation will be lower on average and load will be higher. More solar projects will also likely be commissioned by then, so expect more records to be broken (and perhaps more frequently). Looking further forward, it will be interesting to see if some of the new solar projects elect for Production Tax Credits and therefore start to operate during periods of negative prices. If so, expect even more records to be set.

However, lost generation due to curtailment isn’t all doom and gloom. By definition, renewables make up a large proportion of the grid’s generation during periods of low net load and curtailment. For corporate buyers measuring their impact in emissionality terms, this means the ‘lost’ emissions impact due to curtailment is relatively small – most of that curtailed energy would have displaced other clean fuels (rather than fossil generators). This is especially true during periods of low net load, where high wind generation will keep marginal emissions rates low regardless of the level of solar curtailment. Figure 3 shows the average ERCOT Locational Marginal Emissions rate declining as renewable energy curtailments increase.

Figure 3: Daily Average ERCOT LME (kgCO2e / MWh) and Renewable Energy Curtailment in January, 2024.

As always with power markets, there’s a lot more going on behind the headlines of record breaking solar output.

In addition to downloading the report, you may want to register to attend a webinar on the topic on Thursday, May 16 at 1pm ET with the editor, Carl Ostridge, and lead analyst, Devon Lukas. They’ll share findings, insights, and host a live Q&A.

Q1 2024 Report Download

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Webinar Recording: Q1 2024 Quarterly Report Findings, Insight, and Q&A

REsurety logo

REsurety creates the State of the Renewables Market report every quarter to provide readers with data-driven insight into the value and emerging trends of renewable generation in U.S. power markets. We use our domain expertise in power markets, atmospheric science, and renewable offtake to analyze thousands of locations and summarize key findings.

In this webinar, on May 16th, 2024 at 1:00 pm ET, editor Carl Ostridge and lead analyst Devon Lukas discussed the editor’s note, which examined how there’s more than meets the eye when it comes to ERCOT’s record-breaking solar generation. They also unpacked key findings highlighted in the Q1 2024 edition of the report, including recent trends and drivers behind renewable energy value across the U.S.

The session was interactive and there was an extensive Q&A session after the presentation. Watch the recording below.

About the speakers

Carl Ostridge, SVP, Analytics Services

REsurety's Carl Ostridge

Carl Ostridge has more than 15 years of energy experience, specializing in energy risk management, electricity markets, and renewable energy project performance. Prior to joining REsurety, Mr. Ostridge worked for DNV GL analyzing and improving the accuracy of wind farm energy analyses and developing models to predict wind farm energy output. His extensive industry experience and proven analytical skills support REsurety’s industry-leading tools and expertise in weather-related risk and valuation for renewable energy projects.

Mr. Ostridge holds a Master’s degree in Astrophysics from the University of Exeter in the UK.

Devon Lukas, Senior Analyst

REsurety's Devon Lukas

Devon Lukas is a data analyst with experience developing data visualization tools. Before joining REsurety, she conducted undergraduate research on floating offshore wind turbine structures, completed greenhouse gas emission analyses for the Pioneer Valley region of Massachusetts as well as the UMass Mount Ida campus, and developed various computational tools for renewable energy data sources. At REsurety, Devon is part of the pre-trade services team in which she primarily structures and analyzes weather-related risk mitigation contracts for clean energy buyers & sellers.

Devon holds a Bachelor of Science degree with a double major in Physics & Astronomy, and an integrated concentration in Renewable Energy from the University of Massachusetts in Amherst, Massachusetts.

CEBA Connect: 2024 Spring Summit Reception

REsurety is hosting a VIP customer event at the CEBA Spring Summit

CEBA Connect: 2024 Spring Summit
The Fortunate Prospector - CEBA Connect 2024

Please join us at The Fortunate Prospector for a REsurety-hosted reception on May 22nd at 7:00 pm. The Fortunate Prospector is located in the Gaylord Rockies Resort & Convention Center. The REsurety team is looking forward to having a fun and engaging customer event. RSVP directly with your account executive.

Learn more about REsurety at the CEBA Connect: 2024 Spring Summit here.

Clean Energy Buyers Association (CEBA) Connect: 2024 Spring Summit – May 22-24

REsurety will be attending the event in Denver, CO. Book a meeting with us.

Clean Energy Buyers Association (CEBA) Connect: 2024 Spring Summit

REsurety’s Adam Reeve, Christine Donohue, and Sam Peffer will be attending the Clean Energy Buyers Association Spring Summit on May 22-24, 2024, in Denver, Colorado. Register to attend.

We will also be hosting a Conversation Table on Wednesday, May 22 from 3:45 – 5:15 PM. Details about the session are below.

Title: Better Forecasting for PPA and REC Settlements

Description: As the scale of your clean energy procurement grows, how can you better manage the swings in REC production and financial settlements year over year? Budgets that are set using developer-provided 8760s will always be wrong, because they use stale data and are not accounting for the causal relationship between generation and power prices. The reality, of course, is that renewable energy production and power prices are both driven by the weather – and the weather is anything but constant! Learn more about how to more accurately and easily manage portfolio-level forecasts and better prepare for the financial impacts of extreme weather events and changing market conditions in this session.

Host: Adam Reeve

About the summit

CEBA Connect’s Spring Summit is the premier event for energy and sustainability professionals dedicated to advancing a carbon-free energy future – and it is just around the corner. Join the CEBA community as we build common understanding of emerging market and policy trends and advance opportunities to scale clean energy to decarbonize the power sector. 

Access the agenda for the entire event here.

Book a meeting with us

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Energy Systems Integration Group: 2024 Forecasting & Markets Workshop – June 11-13

ESIG Logo

REsurety will be at the event in Salt Lake City, UT.

Energy Systems Integration Group: 2024 Forecasting & Markets Workshop

REsurety’s Jennifer Newman will be attending the ESIG 2024 Forecasting & Markets Workshop on June 11-13, 2024, in Salt Lake City, Utah. Register to attend.

On Thursday, June 13, Jennifer will be speaking on the panels, Bridging the Gap between Atmospheric Science and Grid Modeling, from 8:00 AM – 9:45 AM, and Closing Plenary Session – Panel Discussion of the Issues and Challenges in the Energy Transition, from 10:15 AM – 12:00 PM.

Session 10

Title: Bridging the Gap between Atmospheric Science and Grid Modeling

Location: Salons EF

Session Chair: Cathy Finley, Associate Professor, University of North Dakota

Speakers:
– Connecting the Dots: Status and Prospects: Justin Sharp, Principal/Owner, Sharply Focused
– Modeling Extreme Events in WECC using PNNL Weather Datasets Including Climate Change Impacts Through 2099: Jon Jensen, Engineer, System Adequacy Planning, WECC
– Status of Climate Change Projections on Wind & Solar Resources: Jared Lee, Project Scientist II, NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research
– Forecasting Tail Events and Impact on Energy Price: Jennifer Newman, Vice President of Atmospheric Science and Research, REsurety

Session 11

Title: Closing Plenary Session – Panel Discussion of the Issues and Challenges in the Energy Transition

Location: Salons EF

Session Chair: Sue Hapt, Senior Scientist, NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research

Description: There are many barriers that have limited the pace of adoption of carbon-free energy generation well below the baseline trend necessary to meet aggressive decarbonization goals set by governments around the world. Some of these barriers include inadequate replacement or retiring generation with clean resources; unprecedented electrification and resulting load growth; inadequacies in weather and climate models, data and forecasts.

We plan to summarize the current situation and have an interactive discussion with panelists and the audience about what steps can be taken to overcome these barriers. Insights and feedback for ISOs, utilities, government labs, forecasters and researchers will be sought.

Ensuring that the energy system planners and operators and atmospheric science communities have a mutual understanding of each other’s needs is key to meeting society’s decarbonization goals.

Summary Comments from the Power System Perspective (10 min): Paul Sotkiewicz, President, E-Cubed Policy Associates

Summary Comments from the Meteorology Perspective (10 min): John Zack, MESO

Panelists for the Discussion on Overcoming the Barriers:
Facilitated by Sue Haupt, NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, and Matt Schuerger, Senior Fellow, ESIG
Paul Sotkiewicz, President, E-Cubed Policy Associates
John Zack, MESO
Peter Markussen, Managing Director, Energinet (Denmark) (invited)
Eric Ela, Technical Executive and Program Manager, EPRI
Jim Wilczak, Research Meteorologist, NOAA
Justin Sharp, Principal/Owner, Sharply Focused
Jennifer Newman, Vice President of Atmospheric Science Research, REsurety

Access the full agenda here.

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Gulf Coast Power Association Spring 2024 Conference

Gulf Coast Power Association

REsurety’s Co-Founder and CEO, Lee Taylor, attended the event in Houston.

Gulf Coast Power Association Spring 2024 Conference

REsurety’s Lee Taylor joined Gulf Coast Power Association’s panel on April 16th at 3:45 pm. Learn more about the session below.

Session Title: The What and How of Sustainability

Description:

Many corporations have announced significant sustainability goals – including net zero ambitions within the next one to two decades. Are these goals achievable? What are corporations doing to achieve these goals in the near term? Have the products used by corporates evolved as their focus on sustainability has increased? What are third parties doing to facilitate achieving these goals?

Speakers:

Moderator: Kellie Metcalf, Managing Partner, EnCap Investments
Alex Beck, Co-Founder, GoodLynx
Chris Dorow, Regional Category Manager, Power and Utilities, BASF
Tina Moss, Sr. Director Net Zero Strategy & Execution, Americas, LyondellBasell
Lee Taylor, Co-Founder & CEO, REsurety

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S&P Global Commodity Insights: Global Power Markets Conference 2024

S&P Global Global Power Markets Conference 2024

REsurety was excited attend the event in Las Vegas.

S&P Global Commodity Insights: Global Power Markets Conference 2024

Adam Reeve, REsurety’s SVP of Sales & Customer Success, attended S&P Global Commodity Insights’ Global Power Markets Conference on April 15-17, 2024, in Las Vegas, Nevada.

About the conference

The leading annual event in the global energy sector, the Global Power Markets Conference, is making its much-anticipated return to Las Vegas! This year, we are thrilled to announce an unprecedented number of executive speakers, showcasing the event’s growing prominence and value in 2024. Join us as senior-level participants from across the power market spectrum – including utilities, investment firms, development companies, trading entities, and governmental bodies – convene to engage in pivotal discussions on the most pressing issues and trends driving the future of energy. This is a unique opportunity to network with industry leaders, gain essential insights into the dynamics of today’s power markets, and explore the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead. 

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Q4 2023 State of the Renewables Market Report

A view of Q4 2023 U.S. renewable energy performance

Q4 2023 State of the Renewables Market Report Cover

REsurety creates the State of the Renewables Market report every quarter to provide readers with data-driven insight into the value and emerging trends of renewable generation in U.S. power markets. Please fill out the form to access the full report, the Editor’s Note is below.

Editor’s Note:

REsurety's Devon Lukas
Devon Lukas
Lead Analyst
Senior Analyst, Analytics Services
REsurety's Carl Ostridge
Carl Ostridge
Editor
SVP, Analytics Services

Emissions (Rates) Ignore (ISO) Borders

As of the end of 2023, Locational Marginal Emissions data is available for all seven deregulated ISOs in the U.S. That additional data coverage is reflected in the later parts of this report. Here, we’re going to dig into what the data can tell us about the current state of the different ISOs and how it can shine a light on the current hydrogen-hourly matching debate.

All the data included in this analysis is for the period November 2022 – October 2023.

1. Renewables projects in CAISO, and particularly solar, had the lowest environmental impact.

There’s already a lot of solar power installed in California, and that means during the day when the sun is shining, solar power is often the marginal generator. That means incremental solar generation is displacing clean megawatt-hours from other solar projects, not fossil-based generators. The average renewable energy project in CAISO during this 12-month period displaced only 234 kgCO2e/MWh. That’s less than half the emissions impact of the average renewable energy project in PJM.

Figure 1: Locational Marginal Emissions Rates for wind and solar projects (kgCO2e/MWh), November 2022 - October 2023. Average, P5 and P95 values are shown.
Figure 1: Locational Marginal Emissions Rates for wind and solar projects (kgCO2e/MWh), November 2022 – October 2023. Average, P5 and P95 values are shown.

2. PJM is where renewable energy has the biggest environmental impact.

A combination of relatively low penetration rates for renewables and fewer transmission constraints means there’s an outsized impact for any new wind or solar project in the PJM footprint because it is often displacing fossil-based generators and rarely displacing other renewables. On average, a renewable energy project in PJM displaced 25% more CO2 than an equivalent project in SPP and almost 40% more than projects in ERCOT.

3. There is a huge range of emissions rates within most ISOs.

It’s perhaps more intuitive to make sense of the differences in average emissions impacts between ISOs – each has its own unique generation stack, load profile, and set of connections with neighboring regions, resulting in different emissions rates for renewables. However, there’s an even bigger range of emissions rates within these regions. This is primarily driven by the unique local transmission constraints within each region and how each of these constraints affects the ability of renewable generation to meet load. Two examples of localized variability in emissions impact are shown in figures 2 and 3. In both southern Oklahoma and western Minnesota, the emissions impact of wind projects is reduced due to local transmission constraints and congestion.

Figure 2: Locational Marginal Emissions, Oklahoma Wind Generators, November 2022 - October 2023.
Figure 2: Locational Marginal Emissions, Oklahoma Wind Generators, November 2022 – October 2023.
Figure 3: Locational Marginal Emissions, Iowa and Minnesota Wind Generators, November 2022 - October 2023.
Figure 3: Locational Marginal Emissions, Iowa and Minnesota Wind Generators, November 2022 – October 2023.

This last point about intra-regional variability is interesting for a number of reasons, but one to specifically call out here is the current debate around the IRS guidance for hourly matching of renewables for hydrogen electrolyzers under Section 45V of the Internal Revenue Code. The latest IRS proposal requires hourly matching of electrolyzer consumption with renewable energy procured within the same ‘region’. While the hourly matching regions don’t precisely match ISO boundaries, they’re pretty close. Therefore, the intra-regional variation in emissions impact for renewable energy projects would likely translate directly to the real-world emissions associated with ‘green’ hydrogen. An electrolyzer could procure renewable energy from a high-performing project in the region and avoid a lot more carbon than the electrolyzer consumes. The more worrying possibility is the opposite scenario – buying power from an underperforming project could mean that the hydrogen produced is actually far from ‘green’.

In addition to downloading the report, you may want to register to attend a webinar on the topic on Wednesday, February 7 at 1pm ET with the editor, Carl Ostridge. He’ll share findings, insights, and host a live Q&A.

Q4 2023 Report Download

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Webinar Recording: Q4 2023 Quarterly Report Findings, Insight, and Q&A

REsurety logo

REsurety creates the State of the Renewables Market report every quarter to provide readers with data-driven insight into the value and emerging trends of renewable generation in U.S. power markets. We use our domain expertise in power markets, atmospheric science, and renewable offtake to analyze thousands of locations and summarize key findings.

In this webinar recording, you’ll hear from the editor of the report, REsurety’s Carl Ostridge, as he discusses the editor’s note and unpacks some of the key findings highlighted in the Q4 2023 edition of the report. There is a Q&A session after the presentation.

About the speaker

Carl Ostridge, SVP, Analytics Services

REsurety's Carl Ostridge

Carl Ostridge has more than 15 years of energy experience, specializing in energy risk management, electricity markets, and renewable energy project performance. Prior to joining REsurety, Mr. Ostridge worked for DNV GL analyzing and improving the accuracy of wind farm energy analyses and developing models to predict wind farm energy output. His extensive industry experience and proven analytical skills support REsurety’s industry-leading tools and expertise in weather-related risk and valuation for renewable energy projects.

Mr. Ostridge holds a Master’s degree in Astrophysics from the University of Exeter in the UK.

Q3 2023 State of the Renewables Market Report

A view of Q3 2023 U.S. renewable energy performance

REsurety Q3 2023 State of the Renewables Market Report

REsurety creates the State of the Renewables Market report every quarter to provide readers with data-driven insight into the value and emerging trends of renewable generation in U.S. power markets. Please fill out the form to access the full report, the Editor’s Note is below.

Editor’s Note:

REsurety's Devon Lukas
Devon Lukas
Lead Analyst
Senior Analyst, Analytics Services
REsurety's Carl Ostridge
Carl Ostridge
Editor
SVP, Analytics Services

A Tale of Two Technologies

When I think of Southwest Power Pool (SPP) I think of wind. Wind met almost 40% of SPP demand in 2022 and new output records have been consistently set over the past couple of years. When I think of SPP I don’t think of solar, though. Solar met less than 0.5% of SPP demand in 2022. And I’ve always found that a little surprising considering the southern SPP footprint has some of the best solar resource in the country (ref: NREL). Maximum solar output this summer in SPP was only 30 MW higher than 2022 while the equivalent metric in ERCOT increased by more than 3,500 MW.

The abundance of wind generators and the lack of solar also means the two technologies look very different when considering two important metrics – the monetary value and the decarbonization impact of each MWh.

Figure 1 shows the capture rates (the value of the wind or solar-weighted MWh compared to around-the-clock MWh) for both price and emissions intensity. We see similar trends in both – wind is capturing less and less of the available monetary value and avoiding less and less CO2 while the opposite is true for solar.

Price and Emissions Intensity Capture Rate, 12-month rolling average. Uses representative modeled wind and solar generation data. February 2021 excluded.
Figure 1: Price and Emissions Intensity Capture Rate, 12-month rolling average. Uses representative modeled wind and solar generation data. February 2021 excluded.

To understand what’s causing this we can look at the month-hour average prices and emissions rates over the past four years. We see that both prices and emissions rates are highest during the summer afternoons. During these times load is high and often wind output is low, meaning the marginal unit is a thermal generator with higher emissions rates. Of course, these are the same hours when solar output is peaking and that correlation leads to high solar value (in $ and CO2 avoidance terms) compared to an around-the-clock generation profile. Conversely, the low prices and low emissions rates are occurring (not coincidentally) in hours of high wind output and this drives the prices and emissions rates lower.

Average Real-Time Price and Emissions Rate 12x24, SPP South.
Figure 2: Average Real-Time Price and Emissions Rate 12×24, SPP South.

On the face of it, this means adding solar to SPP would be a win-win, it would capture relatively high value power prices and would displace thermal generators more often, avoiding more carbon emissions. In Q3 of this year, solar was worth more than $50/MWh at South Hub while wind was worth closer to $20/MWh. During the same period, solar generation also had a 40% larger emissions reduction impact compared to wind.

Price and Emissions Values for Wind and Solar in Q3 2023.
Table 1: Price and Emissions Values for Wind and Solar in Q3 2023.

So why aren’t more solar projects being built? There are a number of challenges, but transmission is a considerable one. The interconnection queue is long and growing thanks to the IRA, and getting an interconnection agreement often requires developers to share large upgrade costs. Further, this analysis reflects the hub values for prices and emissions. Wind projects in SPP suffer some of the worst price basis in the country with some projects seeing $10-20/MWh annual nodal discounts vs. the hub. Investment tax credit (ITC)-qualified solar projects would likely need to curtail output as soon as prices reach negative territory while production tax credit (PTC)-qualified wind projects tend to continue operating far beyond that point.

There’s currently value available for solar in SPP but only if project developers can navigate the complex issues related to transmission, interconnection, and congestion.

Q3 2023 Report Download

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Solar + Wind Finance & Investment Summit 2024

REsurety was excited to return to the Solar + Wind Finance & Investment Summit.

Solar + Wind Finance & Investment Summit 2024

REsurety attended the 2024 Solar + Wind Finance & Investment Summit on March 10-13 in Phoenix, AZ. Co-Founder & CEO, Lee Taylor, SVP of Sales & Customer Success, Adam Reeve, and Emma Marjollet, Account Executive, represented REsurety at the show.

About the event

Infocast’s Solar + Wind Finance & Investment Summit in 2023 gathered an unprecedented number of leading industry players to network, make deals, and get fully briefed on the renewables markets. This exceptional event is back to once again gather a who’s who for phenomenal deal-making and strategizing opportunities.

Join us for 2024’s summit March 11-13, with an exclusive pre-summit evening of Keynote sessions followed by a welcome reception on March 10.

Mark these dates in your calendar and get ready for the most powerful networking place for top-level renewables and financial executives and capitalize on today’s booming renewables market!

One year into the Inflation Reduction Act and the industry is still figuring out the new normal, with lingering supply issues, inflation, and interest rate hikes on the one hand and expanded tax credits, transferability, and long-term policy certainty on the other. This is a particularly critical year to attend Solar + Wind Finance & Investment Summit for a deep dive into how IRA guidance is affecting assumptions and how the emerging transferability market is creating a whole new outlook on financing possibilities. You’ll get insider tips on how to successfully navigate these waters, capitalize on the booming opportunities of the future, handle the lingering difficulties of the present, and meet everyone you need to know to take maximum advantage of your opportunities to develop, finance, and invest in today’s renewable energy projects.

Mingle with other C-Suite executives at the preeminent networking event for leaders in finance, solar, wind, and storage, top-rated by attendees as the place where deals and valuable business connections are made. Get the latest update on the finance and investment landscape, gain prescient insights into market trends, and network with the “highest quality of industry participants on the conference circuit.”

Bump into all the right people at the premier source of information for shaping your organization’s strategic direction – Let’s reconnect once again!

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Webinar Recording: Hot Grid Summer: Unpacking ERCOT’s Unusually Warm Summer of 2023

REsurety logo

The summer of 2023 felt like an endless chain of heat waves in the U.S. but nowhere more so than in Texas, which experienced its second hottest summer on record. In this webinar, meteorologists Jennifer Newman and Jessica Tomaszewski discussed the meteorological drivers of the heat wave, the temperature and demand records that were set, and the impact the heat wave had on power prices. They discussed:

  • Causes of the heat wave
  • How heat waves impact demand and renewable energy production
  • How climate change might impact the frequency of heat waves
  • How you can take extreme events into account for price forecasts

The session was interactive and there was an extensive Q & A session after the presentation.

About the speakers

Jennifer Newman, VP, Atmospheric Science Research

Jennifer Newman, Vice President of Atmospheric Science Research, REsurety

Jennifer Newman is an atmospheric scientist with experience in boundary layer meteorology, remote sensing, machine learning, and wind resource assessment. Prior to joining REsurety, Dr. Newman completed a postdoctoral fellowship at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory with a focus on improving turbulence estimates from Doppler wind lidars. As a research scientist at REsurety, she investigates new methods for estimating the risk of potential wind projects.

Dr. Newman holds Doctor of Philosophy and Master’s degrees in Meteorology from the University of Oklahoma. She also holds a Bachelor’s degree in Atmospheric Science from Cornell University where she graduated with distinction in research.

Jessica Tomaszewski, Senior Research Scientist

Jessica Tomaszewski, Senior Research Scientist, REsurety

Jessica Tomaszewski is an atmospheric scientist with experience in boundary layer meteorology, numerical weather prediction, and wind resource assessment. Prior to joining REsurety, Jessica completed a National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship with a focus on simulating interactions between wind farms and the lower atmosphere, as well as two summer internships at NextEra Analytics investigating improvements to the wind farm wake modeling process. As a research scientist at REsurety, she builds and investigates new techniques for analyzing renewable resources and mitigating their financial risk.

Dr. Tomaszewski holds a PhD and Master’s degree in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences from the University of Colorado Boulder. She also holds a Bachelor’s degree in Meteorology from the University of Oklahoma.

Blog post: REsurety Launches Integrated Platform of Clean Energy Software Solutions including New Project Evaluator Application

Project Evaluator main screen
Tara Bartley, Vice President of Marketing at REsurety
Tara Bartley, VP of Marketing


Authored by Tara Bartley, VP of Marketing, REsurety

Today we’re announcing our unified software-as-a-service offering, the REsurety platform. Over the years, REsurety has built a reputation for delivering best-in-class clean energy software solutions to address the specific needs of our customers: buyers, sellers, and investors. Through collaboration with and feedback from those stakeholders, we have brought together our suite of products into one platform: offering end-to-end workflow support for our customers.

In addition to announcing our unified platform, we are also introducing a new application to the suite, Project Evaluator. Project Evaluator is a simulation tool for forecasting and backcasting wind and solar project and PPA performance. With the new tool, users can rank power purchase agreement RFP results based on expected financial value and risk, emissions impact, carbon free energy metrics, among others. For renewable projects and contracts, you can forecast generation and offtake settlements.

Simulate clean energy project performance and offtake contract settlement with REsurety's Project Evaluator.

“I’m thrilled to deliver our unified platform with the addition of Project Evaluator to our clients. We’re providing them with information and tools that they can’t access anywhere else – and with it, we’re helping our clients achieve their ambitious clean energy and carbon goals,” said Lee Taylor, CEO, REsurety. “I’m proud too of the REsurety team that has worked tirelessly to bring our roadmap to life.”

We have also received feedback from our customers that our naming conventions have historically been challenging to distinguish. So, we’ve addressed that by rolling out descriptive names. What was historically known as REmap, will now be referred to as two separate tiles, Project Explorer and Carbon Explorer. We’ve also changed the name of REview to Portfolio Tracker. When users log into: app.resurety.com, these new names are reflected in the platform.

In addition to the functionality of Project Evaluator, The REsurety platform includes:

In Project Explorer you can view historical price and generation data for any project up to 20 years into the past or 20 years into the future. Historical data can even be modeled to pre-date a project’s commission date to simulate a longer back-cast of project performance. Forecasted power prices and generation are available across a range of power market conditions and weather scenarios to get a realistic range of possible future outcomes.

Carbon Explorer offers the ability to view and analyze historical and forecasted LME data for operational wind and solar projects in ERCOT, PJM, and CAISO. You can quickly access high-quality carbon emissions data paired with generation at the monthly (forecasted and historical) and hourly (historical only) level.

With Portfolio Tracker, you can analyze and audit how your contracts are performing and what risks they hold; evaluate how settlement is expected to occur over the coming months and years; and measure project-specific financial performance and carbon emissions performance. Perhaps most importantly, with Portfolio Tracker, you can confidently explain financial and environmental outcomes to your stakeholders.

The REsurety platform can be found at: https://app.resurety.com. For inquiries, please email: [email protected].

Please note: current REsurety customers will not see any immediate changes to their login or user experience and can expect a REsurety customer success representative to be in touch before any major updates.

S&P Global Commodity Insights to Launch First-of-Kind Emissions-Adjusted Price Assessments for Renewable Energy Certificates (RECs)

Platts and REsurety collaborate to bring transparency to the carbon intensity of individual Renewable Energy Certificates and the associated pricing

S&P Global Commodity Inisghts logo

NEW YORK (September 18, 2023) – Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, the leading independent provider of information, analytics and benchmark prices for the commodities and energy markets, today announced it is launching first-of-kind price assessments for Emissions Adjusted (EA) Renewable Energy Certificates (RECs) through a collaborative data-licensing agreement with clean energy data-driven solutions provider REsurety.

While renewable energy certificate markets are well established, not all RECs have the same emissions impact, and to date, the emissions impacts have not been reflected in pricing. The new Platts Emissions-Adjusted (EA) RECs are aimed at shedding light on this additional energy-transition-critical information and providing benchmark values for renewables based on their emissions impact.

Platts will use REsurety’s high granularity emissions impact data, Locational Marginal Emissions (LMEs), to measure the hourly carbon emissions impact associated with the hourly generation of RECs from individual renewable power plants in the United States, beginning with Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT). Platts will aggregate and publish a new suite of Emissions-Adjusted REC assessments to provide benchmark prices based on their emissions impact.

“By incorporating carbon intensity into REC pricing, we believe the marketplace will welcome this better understanding of the emissions impact of individual certificates,” said Alan Hayes, Global Head of Energy Transition Pricing, S&P Global Commodity Insights. “By adjusting renewable energy certificates prices to reflect carbon intensity, market participants will be empowered to differentiate and maximize the impact of REC purchases on emissions.”

Renewable energy certificates and related instruments worldwide have become a key tool for energy users to direct investment to solar, wind, hydro and other renewable generation technologies. Typically, RECs are traded and priced in US dollars per megawatt hour of power produced. But the emissions impact of each REC varies widely depending on power market fundamentals. At times and locations where production is primarily from fossil-fueled power plants, the carbon emissions impact of clean generation is typically high. At times and locations where renewable generation dominates, the emissions impact of clean generation is typically low. This is not directly reflected in the REC instrument or prices. The collaboration between Platts and REsurety will bring needed clarity and independent valuations to differing power stacks.

“REsurety is excited to collaborate with S&P Global Commodity Insights to address the emissions information gap that is crucial for clean energy buyers who are purchasing RECs to meet their sustainability goals. Publishing the emissions impact of each REC instrument will drive demand to the highest impact projects and locations – which is critical to accelerating our path to a carbon-free grid,” said Lee Taylor, CEO at REsurety.

While the first set of Platts Emissions-Adjusted REC price assessments will relate to Texas power, across coming months, Platts will publish a full suite of Emissions-Adjusted REC prices and carbon intensity (CI) adjustment factors for each of the US power independent system operators.

METHODOLOGY
Platts will publish Emission-Adjusted REC prices (USD/MT CO2e) alongside existing REC prices; EA REC prices will be calculated by dividing the REC price (USD/MWh) of a given REC certificate by the emissions impact of that same REC certificate (kgCO2e/MWh) over the period. EA REC prices will be published for the prior year and on a year-to-date basis for the current year. Alongside EA REC prices, Platts will publish the associated emission-adjustment factors, which will be updated monthly.

Example of Emissions Adjusted REC pricing

S&P and REsurety's example of emissions adjusted REC pricing

REsurety is a mission-driven organization dedicated to accelerating the world’s transition to a zero-carbon future. It provides software and services to support both the financial and sustainability goals of clean energy buyers, sellers, and investors. Its software offers data-driven insights at various stages of the project lifecycle from initial exploration to portfolio management. Its services leverage its domain expertise and deliver solutions tailored to the unique needs of customers. For more information, visit www.resurety.com.

Media Contacts:

Americas: Kathleen Tanzy, + 1 917-331-4607, [email protected]

EMEA: Paul Sandell, + 44 (0)7816 180039, [email protected]

Asia: Melissa Tan, + 65-6597-6241, [email protected]

About S&P Global Commodity Insights

At S&P Global Commodity Insights, our complete view of global energy and commodity markets enables our customers to make decisions with conviction and create long-term, sustainable value. 

We’re a trusted connector that brings together thought leaders, market participants, governments, and regulators and we create solutions that lead to progress. Vital to navigating commodity markets, our coverage includes oil and gas, power, chemicals, metals, agriculture, shipping and energy transition. Platts ® products and services, including leading benchmark price assessments in the physical commodity markets, are offered through S&P Global Commodity Insights. S&P Global Commodity Insights maintains clear structural and operational separation between its price assessment activities and the other activities carried out by S&P Global Commodity Insights and the other business divisions of S&P Global.

S&P Global Commodity Insights is a division of S&P Global (NYSE: SPGI). S&P Global is the world’s foremost provider of credit ratings, benchmarks, analytics and workflow solutions in the global capital, commodity and automotive markets. With every one of our offerings, we help many of the world’s leading organizations navigate the economic landscape so they can plan for tomorrow, today. For more information visit https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights.

©2023 by S&P Global Commodity Insights, a division of S&P Global Inc.

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Webinar Recording: REsurety Solutions Showcase: Simplify Your Renewable Energy Portfolio Audits and Explanations

Clean Energy Buyers Association (CEBA) logo
REsurety logo


Do you struggle understanding and forecasting performance of your Power Purchase Agreements? Many clean energy buyers share this same challenge. In this session you will learn an easier way to:

  • Organize the influx of monthly invoices
  • Audit and identify costly invoice errors
  • Obtain insights into project operations
  • Forecast settlement across confidence bands

We shared real-world use cases where clean energy buyers have found simpler, more efficient ways of understanding and reporting on their portfolios. We even gave specific examples of corporations uncovering hundreds of thousands of dollars in previously undiscovered errors. Watch the recording of the full session below.

About the speakers

Irina Gumennik, Director, Analytics Services

Irina Gumennik, Director, Analytics Services, REsurety

Irina is an analyst with more than 15 years of experience in the renewable energy industry. Before joining REsurety, Irina was part of the team that permitted, constructed, and commissioned the Block Island Wind Farm, the first offshore wind energy project in the United States. Irina also worked for the world’s largest demand response service provider on demand-side solutions and battery storage products. At REsurety, Irina directs portfolio analytics services to analyze performance drivers and identify risk management strategies.

Irina holds a Master’s degree in Civil & Environmental Engineering from Tufts University in Medford, Massachusetts. She also holds a Bachelor’s degree in Environmental Science and Public Policy from Harvard University.

Carl Ostridge, SVP of Analytics Services

Carl Ostridge, SVP Analytics Services, REsurety

Carl Ostridge has more than 15 years of energy experience, specializing in energy risk management, electricity markets, and renewable energy project performance. Prior to joining REsurety, Mr. Ostridge worked for DNV GL analyzing and improving the accuracy of wind farm energy analyses and developing models to predict wind farm energy output. His extensive industry experience and proven analytical skills support REsurety’s industry-leading tools and expertise in weather-related risk and valuation for renewable energy projects.

Mr. Ostridge holds a Master’s degree in Astrophysics from the University of Exeter in the UK.

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Webinar Recording: Unpacking ERCOT Solar Capture Rates in REsurety’s Weather-Smart Forecasts

REsurety logo

REsurety’s Weather-Smart forecasts show sharply declining solar value in ERCOT. Average solar capture rates fall to around 75% by 2030 in our baseline forecast, with significant weather and fundamentals-driven variability about that average. In this webinar, we unpacked these results by evaluating progressively more sophisticated forecasting models. We showed that:

  • Accounting for recent trends, changes to system fundamentals, and weather variability reduce forecasted solar capture rates.
  • Weather uncertainty leads to a wide range of capture rate outcomes given the fundamentals.
  • Uncertainty in solar buildout leads to an even wider range of solar capture rate outcomes.

We also had 10-15 minutes of Q & A after the presentation.

About the speakers

David Luke Oates, SVP, Power Markets Research

David Luke Oates, SVP, Power Markets Research

David Luke Oates co-leads REsurety’s Research team. His team builds, tests, and deploys fundamentals and statistical models of electricity prices and emissions to support customer workflows. David Luke has over a decade of experience working in the electric power sector from positions in academia, consulting, and technology. Before joining REsurety, he was a consultant at The Brattle Group, supporting electricity market operators, utilities, and asset owners to address market design, asset valuation, and regulatory questions.

Dr. Oates holds a Ph.D. in Engineering and Public Policy from Carnegie Mellon University and a Bachelor’s degree in Engineering Physics from Queen’s University, Canada.

Amit Ranjan, Senior Associate, Power Markets Research

Amit Ranjan, Senior Associate, Power Markets Research

Amit Ranjan is an engineer and researcher with experience in fundamentals-based modeling of wholesale electricity markets. Before joining the REsurety team, he was a Senior Analyst at National Grid where he improved the fidelity of long-term capacity expansion models to support corporate strategy initiatives. He also studied the financial and electric system peak implications of electrifying heating in buildings across the U.S. Northeast. At REsurety, he is helping to advance power price analytics amid evolving market designs, increasing penetration of renewable energy and changing policy landscape.

Amit holds a Master’s degree in Energy and Environmental Management from Duke University and a Bachelor’s degree in Environmental Engineering from Delhi Technological University, India.

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Blog post: Is 24/7 or Emissions First right for you? It depends on what you are trying to achieve.

Lee Taylor
Lee Taylor, REsurety's CEO, discussions Emissions First for clean energy leaders
Lee Taylor, Co-Founder and CEO


Authored by Lee Taylor, Co-Founder and CEO, REsurety


Clean energy leaders today agree clearly on one thing: annual MWh-based accounting was a phenomenally successful driver of our industry’s past success, but it is insufficient to meet the needs of our industry’s future – and our planet’s future.1 However, those same clean energy leaders have different proposals for what should replace annual MWh-based accounting. From these proposals two approaches have emerged: Hourly Energy Matching (the methodology advocated for by 24/7 proponents) and Carbon Matching (the methodology advocated for by the Emissions First Partnership).

Hourly Energy Matching asserts that buyers of clean energy should match their consumption with clean energy generation in both time and location. Carbon Matching advocates that buyers of clean energy calculate the induced carbon emissions of their consumption and then subtract the avoided carbon emissions of their clean energy procurement, with the goal of pursuing strategies for both consumption and generation, independently, to get to an end result of zero as fast as possible. In the corporate community, Google has led the charge on Hourly Energy Matching whereas the Emissions First Partnership (including Akamai, Amazon, General Motors, HASI, Heineken, Intel, Meta, Rivian, Salesforce, and Workday) has advocated for Carbon Matching.2

There is a perception by some that these two camps are in direct conflict. In reality, Carbon Matching and Hourly Energy Matching share a common long-term goal: a carbon-free grid. However, Carbon Matching and Hourly Energy Matching are two different strategies to achieve that goal and should be considered alternative – not mutually exclusive – options, each of which is an improvement over the status quo.

Hourly Energy Matching is an attempt to approximate the physical sourcing of clean energy. Said another way, Hourly Energy Matching is effectively a proxy for behind-the-meter co-location and temporal matching of clean energy generation and energy consumption. It is an effort to get most of the benefits of co-location without giving up the benefits of grid interconnection. Done correctly (more on this below), this strategy provides a tool to attempt to physically consume carbon-free energy.3

By contrast, Carbon Matching is an attempt to minimize carbon emissions as fast as possible. The basic premise is: our climate doesn’t care when and where carbon is emitted, it all goes into the same atmosphere and drives climate change. So Carbon Matching focuses on driving dollars to the projects and strategies that decrease overall carbon emissions as fast as possible, whether or not that results in consumption and clean energy generation occurring in the same time and location. For example: siting new load in a clean grid while siting new renewable generation in a dirty grid achieves faster decarbonization than co-locating load and generation in either one location.

Regarding the “done correctly” point above, I do have one significant bone to pick with the messaging to date by the Hourly Energy Matching camp. In many real world applications, Hourly Energy Matching has a significant “deliverability problem” that has thus far been downplayed or outright ignored. Here’s the problem: using grid connected projects as a “proxy” for co-location is only defensible if there are no material transmission constraints between the location of your generation and the location of your consumption. Just as transmission constraints drive dramatic price differences within a region, they also drive large differences in the carbon intensity of electricity within the same grid at the same time.

Hourly Energy Matching advocates acknowledge this and so define “deliverability” as existing between any two locations on the grid between which there is no material congestion. But, as a result of the complex and rapidly changing congestion patterns of modern grids, that means that whether or not generation in one location is “deliverable” to load in another changes every 5 minutes in many markets and can cause locations that are just a few miles apart to become non-deliverable. That reality presents challenges to the ease of Hourly Energy Matching’s implementation, so advocates have thus far taken a “let’s not let the perfect be the enemy of the good” approach and suggest using unjustifiably large geographic boundaries such as balancing authorities or the DOE’s geographic regions as approximations of deliverability.

But calling something deliverable doesn’t make it so. For example, in renewables-rich Texas, out of the hundreds of operating wind farms only two would be considered deliverable to Houston if you used energy price differentials as an indicator of congestion – as many have proposed.4 And congestion is not just a Texas problem. In MISO in 2022, renewables were being curtailed 71% of the time as a result of local congestion.5 In summary: matching generation and consumption hourly while ignoring local transmission constraints is the definition of precision without accuracy – and Hourly Energy Matching advocates need to acknowledge this and ensure that the implementation of “deliverability” consistently avoids that outcome.6

In the end, as a buyer of power, you have a choice. Is your goal to attempt to physically consume local carbon free energy? And are you comfortable knowing that your dollars spent could very likely have abated carbon further and faster if deployed elsewhere? If so, then you should pursue an Hourly Energy Matching strategy.

Alternatively, is your goal to reduce overall carbon emissions as fast as possible? And are you comfortable with the fact that your choice may lead you to invest in projects that aren’t located in your backyard? If so, then you should pursue a Carbon Matching strategy.

Both strategies have their respective merits and it is important to note that they are not mutually exclusive. I can speak to this personally. I live in Massachusetts, which means I live in a house that gets (relatively) little sunshine and draws power from a (relatively) clean grid. Even so, I installed solar panels on my roof in order to source carbon-free energy for my own consumption. However, like many 24/7 strategies, my rooftop solar system is both expensive and exclusive. The implied cost of carbon underlying the RECs generated by my rooftop system translates to nearly $650 per metric ton of avoided carbon. And, residential solar isn’t a financial option for all homeowners and is no option at all for renters. While I still feel good about my decision to install solar, I recognize that this kind of behavior alone simply is not cost-effective nor scalable enough to stave off the worst effects of climate change. Given that, the majority of my time and effort go into our work at REsurety, where we provide the tools required to enable Carbon Matching throughout the clean energy ecosystem (from corporate procurement, to energy storage, to hydrogen development) – with the primary objectives of maximizing the speed with which we decarbonize the grid as a whole.

Have a question on this topic? We’re always happy to discuss so send us a note at [email protected].


1 For further reading or listening on this, see: Carbon Accounting Changes Could Lift Corporate Greenhouse-Gas Emissions, WSJ, May 2023. GHG accounting reform could change energy investment, The Interchange Podcast, July 2023. Going beyond megawatt hour matching, Climate Positive Podcast, July 2023.

2 The Emissions First Partnership states that it supports companies with hourly match goals, and its carbon matching approach can serve as a foundation for those goals (see EFP website).

3 I say “attempt” instead of “ensure” on purpose, because it’s not possible to trace electrons from generation to consumption across a grid. 24/7’s advocates agree with this: “We know from Kirchoff’s circuit laws that electricity generated in one spot cannot be directed to a specific user over the electricity grid. Once you put electricity on the grid there is no actual way to know ‘the energy from wind farm X is going to my data center Y.’” – Google’s Green PPAs

4 Many Hourly Energy Matching proponents have suggested that two locations could be considered “deliverable” if the Locational Marginal Price (“LMP”) at the generator location is within 10% of the (hourly-matched) LMP at the consumption location. Using trailing 2-year observed prices, only 2 wind farms in Texas have experienced LMP differentials of less than 10% to Houston Hub.

5 See Table 1 from MISO’s 2022 State of the Market report. Wind and solar were on the margin and as such set pricing in 68% and 3% of intervals, respectively.

6 For more detail on how local transmission can undermine or even reverse the carbon benefits of hourly matching, see REsurety’s white paper on this topic related to defining green hydrogen: Emissions Implications for Clean Hydrogen Accounting Methods.

American Clean Power Resource & Technology Conference

Resource & Tech

REsurety’s Carl Ostridge spoke on the panel, Definition and Forecasting Methodologies, Implications and Mitigation Strategies Applied to Basis Risk

Resource & Tech Conference logo

REsurety attended the ACP Resource & Technology Conference on November 14-15, 2023 in Austin, Texas. REsurety’s SVP of Analytics Services, Carl Ostridge, joined the panel, Definition and Forecasting Methodologies, Implications and Mitigation Strategies Applied to Basis Risk on Tuesday, November 14th at 9:00 am CST. Learn more about the session below.

Title: Definition and Forecasting Methodologies, Implications and Mitigation Strategies Applied to Basis Risk

Description:

Basis continues to remain a relatively new market-related risk. In most power purchase agreements with commercial buyers, the clean energy project sponsor bears such risk with a settlement point at an agreed-upon liquid market hub, as opposed to the project’s interconnection point. Evaluation of basis risk is complex and uses sophisticated production cost simulation models that mimic the wholesale electricity market. Especially in a congested grid environment, basis risk can become significant. In this session we will hear industry experts discuss the fundamentals of basis, implications of high basis risk and benefits of Grid Enhancing Technologies (GETs) deployments for congestion mitigation.

Speakers:
Julia Selker, Executive Director, Working for Advanced Transmission Technologies (WATT) Coalition
Carl Ostridge, SVP of Analytics Services, REsurety
Moderator: Rodica Donaldson, VP Transmission Analytics, EDF Renewables

About the event

Join your peers as we build the future of the clean energy industry. Share and discover cutting-edge technological innovations and advancements in the area of renewable energy assessment and performance and reliability improvements at ACP’s Resource & Technology Conference.

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S&P Global Commodity Insights Financing US Power Conference

S&P Global Financing US Power Conference

REsurety’s Lee Taylor joined the panel, Investment Opportunities and the IRA

S&P Global Financing US Power Conference: Panel on Investment Opportunities and the IRA

REsurety attended the S&P Global Commodity Insights Financing US Power Conference on October 30-31. REsurety’s Co-Founder and CEO, Lee Taylor, participated in the panel, Investment Opportunities and the IRA on October 30th at 11:15 am ET. Learn more about the session below.

Title: Investment Opportunities and the IRA

Topics covered:

  • Scope and reach of the IRA
  • Where is investment taking place stimulated by new federal support?
  • Key challenges that remain
  • Supply chain challenges

Session Speakers:
Himanshu Saxena, CEO, Lotus Infrastructure Partners
Rich Roloff, Managing Director, LS Power
Lee Taylor, Co-Founder and CEO, REsurety
John Morton, Managing Director and Global Head of Advisory, Pollination Group
Moderator: Daryna Kotenko, Lead, North American Power, S&P Global Commodity Insights

About the event

The Financing US Power Conference is the premier power finance event, giving you unique opportunities to explore the critical drivers for electric power investment. Meet with colleagues, including leaders from utilities, investors, developers, and analysts, while gaining valuable insight into the investment climate and the challenges for power finance deals.

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VERGE 23

REsurety returned to VERGE to exhibit at the leading climate tech event.

VERGE climate tech event

REsurety exhibited at the VERGE 2023 event in San Jose, CA, on October 24-26. You could find us at booth #412.

About the event

VERGE 23 is the leading climate tech event accelerating solutions to the most pressing challenges of our time. It is the center of gravity for the climate community — leaders from business, government, solution providers and startups — working together to address the climate crisis.

The unprecedented challenges we face today present equally unprecedented opportunities to reimagine and redesign our world to be more prosperous, sustainable and resilient. The key programs that comprise VERGE 23 — Buildings, Carbon, Energy, Food, Startups and Transport  — focus on seizing these opportunities.

Join the growing VERGE ecosystem of more than 5,000 professionals for this solutions-oriented event. By attending, you’ll gain access to inspiring keynotes, engaging breakout sessions and tutorials, innovative exhibit displays, networking events and more.

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Q2 2023 State of the Renewables Market Report

A view of Q2 2023 U.S. renewable energy performance

Q2 2023 State of the Renewables Market

REsurety creates the State of the Renewables Market report every quarter to provide readers with data-driven insight into the value and emerging trends of renewable generation in U.S. power markets. We use our domain expertise in power markets, atmospheric science, and renewable offtake to analyze thousands of locations and summarize key findings here. All of the data behind this analysis is curated by REsurety’s team of experts and available via our software products. It includes aggregated metrics for wind and solar projects operating in the U.S. All summaries are calculated using hourly-level data, and all energy-weighted price metrics are calculated using concurrent weather-driven generation and energy price time series. Please fill out the form at the bottom of the page to access the full report, the Editor’s Note is below.

Editor’s Note:

Devon Lukas, Lead Analyst of the State of the Renewables Market report
Devon Lukas
Lead Analyst
Senior Analyst, Analytics Services
Irina Gumennik, Editor of the State of the Renewables Market report
Irina Gumennik
Editor
Director, Analytics Services

June in Texas: High Heat, Not So High Power Prices

I recall the buzz during the summer of 2019 when power prices in ERCOT reached $9,000/MWh for a few hours and the speculation about how prices may have been lower with more solar on the grid. Fast forward to 2023. The hot topic to start the hot summer is instead how power prices may have been even higher without the observed solar generation. Solar energy’s contribution to grid resilience during this summer’s heat waves has even become mainstream news, with headlines about the absence of the power supply scares of previous summers.1

Indeed, solar capacity in ERCOT has grown over the last few years. Observed hourly solar generation regularly approached 13,000 MWh heading into this summer, compared to a maximum of approximately 10,000 MWh the same time last year (Figure 1). However, despite record breaking demand and a few hours of scarcity prices in June, the average monthly prices remained below the values from last summer (Figure 2). The average power price in June 2023 at ERCOT North Hub was $2 less than in June 2022 despite exceeding the monthly peak demand record by over 4,000 MW.2

Figure 1: Observed Hourly Solar Generation in ERCOT
Figure 1: Observed Hourly Solar Generation in ERCOT
Figure 2: Average Monthly Power Prices at ERCOT North Hub.
Figure 2: Average Monthly Power Prices at ERCOT North Hub.

REsurety estimates that the average power price in ERCOT this June would have been nearly double the observed value without the additional solar generation. We also estimate that solar resources would have captured 27 percent more of this higher average monthly price, while wind resources would have captured 14 percent less.

Continued growth in solar capacity is expected to further degrade the capture rates for solar in ERCOT, while supporting capture rates for wind and keeping average prices lower for consumers. REsurety’s Weather-Smart fundamentals power price model shows reductions in solar value as solar buildout ramps up and the highest price hours are pushed out to the early mornings and evenings. At the same time, the reduction in power prices during afternoon hours also helps to limit downside risk to wind generation value. The lowest wind capture rates tend to occur in months that experience periods of low wind resource coinciding with periods of high demand from high temperatures.

We continue to watch how solar energy resources will perform with more hot weather still to come. Regardless of how the rest of this summer turns out, the impact that increasing solar penetration is having on markets like ERCOT is already apparent, and increasingly suggests that the near future is fundamentally different from the recent past. We will keep sharing our data findings in these quarterly reports as well as trends and thought leadership on our corporate blog.


Footnotes:

  1. The U.S. Power Grid Withstands the Heat, So Far: Electric supplies from renewable energy, hydropower and batteries bolster vulnerable parts. The Wall Street Journal, July 23, 2023.
  2. Based on available peak demand records for June 2023 reported by ERCOT.

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White Paper: Charging Towards Zero

Harnessing Batteries and Carbon Contracts to Accelerate Grid Decarbonization, authored by Tierra Climate in partnership with REsurety

White Paper - Charging Towards Zero: Harnessing Batteries and Carbon Contracts to Accelerate Grid Decarbonization

This paper examines the economic carbon impact of compensating batteries for carbon reduction using detailed electricity emissions data and a carbon contract. Carbon contracts with grid-scale batteries might provide corporations with an elegant solution to meet sustainability targets and decarbonize the electricity grid, which cannot be accomplished through renewable energy purchases alone.

In partnership with REsurety, the paper leverages REsurety’s Locational Marginal Emissions dataset as part of the calculating mechanism.

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Climate Positive Podcast: Going Beyond Megawatt Hour Matching

Climate Positive Podcast
Climate Positive Podcast: Going Beyond Megawatt Hour Matching

Last month, HASI’s Chad Reed was joined by REsurety’s Lee Taylor, TCR’s Hank He, GM’s Rob Threlkeld, and Putnam Investments’ Katherine Collins to participate in a panel at the GreenFin 23 event. The discussion revolved around the need to move beyond megawatt hour matching and towards carbon matching. This episode of Climate Positive is a recording of that discussion.

Listen to the full podcast here or on Spotify, or download a PDF of the transcript below.

Episode Summary

For several years, well-intentioned companies seeking to reduce their emissions from electricity consumption – a primary component of their Scope 2 emissions – have bought Renewable Energy Credits (RECs) or signed Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs). Known as energy or megawatt hour matching, this approach, which forms the backbone of the Greenhouse Gas Protocol’s Scope 2 Market-Based Method accounting system, does not distinguish the time, location or emissions profile of a company’s electricity consumption from that of its REC and PPA interventions to offset this consumption.

But as different grids have decarbonized at different rates over the years, the emissions impact of a REC purchased or PPA signed in one location at a particular time no longer necessarily has a similar impact to RECs purchased or PPAs signed in different locations at different times. In essence, at least as it pertains to carbon impact, not every megawatt hour is created equal.

In this episode, recorded at the GreenFin 23 Conference in Boston, Chad leads a panel of industry experts – including Katherine Collins of Putnam Investments; Hank He of Tabors Caramanis Rudkevich; Lee Taylor of REsurety; and Rob Threlkeld of General Motors – on the deficiencies of energy matching, the benefits of a new approach known as carbon matching and the resulting implications for ongoing efforts to reform Scope 2 of the Greenhouse Gas Protocol.

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The Interchange Recharged Podcast: GHG Accounting Reform Could Transform Energy Investment

The Interchange Recharged Podcast: GHG Accounting Reform Could Transform Energy Investment

In this episode of The Interchange Recharged, David Banmiller is joined by AWS’ Jake Oster and Meta’s Peter Freed to discuss the goals of the Emissions First Partnership and why updating carbon accounting standards is so important.

Listen to the podcast here or on Spotify, or download a full PDF transcript below.

Episode Summary

Changes to the way emissions are reported will have a big impact on renewable investment.

It might be the most important piece of sustainability material in corporate and climate work that no one’s ever heard of, and it drives a huge amount of corporate behavior.

In 1998, the GHG Protocol Corporate Accounting and Reporting Standard launched, and set out a standard for businesses to measure and report their greenhouse gas emissions. Like financial accounting standards, the GHG Protocol influences corporate behavior such as investment decisions. So, a planned revision of the rules for reporting Scope 2 emissions is a significant event. The new standard, expected to take effect in 2025, could have a big impact on corporate investment in low-carbon energy around the world.

Now, a consortium of some of the world’s biggest funders of the Greenhouse Gas Protocol, such as Amazon and Meta, are looking to refine the current rules with the goal of increasing the accuracy of reporting. Together with 8 other companies, including Intel and Heineken, they’ve co-founded the Emissions First Partnership, which is advocating for changes to the Greenhouse Gas Protocol.

Host David Banmiller is joined by Jake Oster, Director of Energy and Environmental Policy at Amazon Web Services, and Peter Freed, Head of Energy Strategy at Meta, to explain the goals of the EFP and why updating accounting standards is so important.

The EFP says that changes to the GHG Protocol Scope 2 emissions reporting is a crucial step to addressing the climate crisis and decarbonizing the power system. Investment in new renewable technologies from corporates, as a result of the accounting standards being updated in the past decade, is increasing.

Pre 2015, before the current market-based methodology was in place, there was about a gigawatt of installed capacity coming from PPAs. Today, there’s more than 100. The pace of progress in the energy transition is accelerating as reporting standards are refined and the EFP aims to continue this progress.

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Climate Positive Podcast: Integrating Emissionality into the Greenhouse Gas Protocol

Climate Positive Podcast
Climate Positive Podcast: Integrating Emissionality into the Greenhouse Gas Protocol

In this episode of Climate Positive, HASI’s Chad Reed and Brendan Herron sit down with Faraz Ahmad, Head of Net Zero Grid at Amazon, to discuss the Emissions First Partnership and how underserved regions could benefit from an emissions first energy transition approach.

Listen to the podcast here, or read the transcript below.

Episode Summary

More than 90% of Fortune 500 companies report their emissions using the Greenhouse Gas Protocol (GHGP), which supplies the world’s most widely used greenhouse gas accounting standards. But despite significant advances in data analytics around emissions measurement, it’s been nearly a decade since the GHGP was last updated. Thankfully, the NGOs that manage the GHGP recently kicked off the update process, soliciting feedback from stakeholders across the spectrum.

In this episode, Chad Reed and HASI Strategic Advisor Brendan Herron speak with Faraz Ahmad, Head of Net Zero Grid for Amazon. Faraz dives deep into the efforts of the Emissions First Partnership, a consortium of companies working together to reduce their emissions with the most impactful clean energy projects and to move away from megawatt hour matching and toward integration of an emissions-based framework into the GHGP. Faraz also discusses how underserved regions – both across the globe and within the U.S. itself – could economically benefit from an emissions first approach to the energy transition.

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