What will U.S. Intervention in Venezuela Mean for Clean Energy Prices?

January 23, 2026

REsurety policy experts weigh in.

We’ve been monitoring the 2026 Venezuela intervention closely to understand its impact on domestic natural gas markets. 

Why? 

Because the price of crude oil ripples through the entire energy complex, ultimately dictating the financial health of renewable energy contracts. 

Let us take a moment to explain. 

Global oil production has an indirect yet significant influence on gas availability—specifically through “associated gas” produced in U.S. oil fields. A natural byproduct of drilling for oil is natural gas – It’s a “package deal”—you can’t extract the oil without releasing the gas. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), this byproduct now accounts for approximately 40% of total U.S. natural gas production.

This vast supply of low-cost associated gas serves as the primary fuel source for the thermal plants that set the market-clearing price for power. Because electricity prices are so tightly coupled to these fuel costs, any fluctuation in the natural gas market—driven by global oil trends—becomes a primary driver of long-term power price forecasts, including WeatherSmart forecasts like REsurety’s.

How the ramp up of oil production takes place in Venezuela will make a difference for the future of the clean energy market by shifting the economics of producing, selling, or buying PPAs. 

While change is coming, it’s not arriving overnight. According to recent analysis from Rystad Energy (January 2026), returning Venezuela to its peak production of 3 million barrels per day would require a staggering $183 billion in investment and would not be fully realized until 2040.

REsurety has created three scenarios about future energy prices in the new world order, what this means for clean energy, and trigger moments to watch for along the way – read on to learn more.