The United States is entering an era of massive data center-driven load growth, which requires significant new generation to be added to the grid. At the same time, clean energy is facing headwinds from tariffs and federal policy, leading to increased construction costs and permitting delays. These headwinds are at odds with the high demand for cost-effective electricity, as well as high demand from corporate offtakers looking to procure clean energy. The result is a dynamic, rapidly changing market for Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs), marked by record-high PPA prices and the emergence of a new market for operational projects.
To help clean energy buyers, investors, and developers navigate this increasingly volatile landscape, we launched our newest report, Evolution of the PPA: A Data-Driven Analysis of the U.S. PPA Landscape, on June 16th. This report is the latest addition to the Reports section of Resurety’s CleanSight platform. The report utilizes data from nearly 1,000 public and proprietary PPA contracts - along with live bid and offer data from Resurety’s CleanTrade platform and fundamentals-based forecasts - to anchor future market projections in transactional reality and give you the insights needed to transact with confidence.
Here are three key trends we’re tracking:
- Greenfield PPA prices have climbed significantly above historical benchmarks. Our dataset shows that median 2024 PPA prices surged above their 5-year historical baselines by $15/MWh for solar and over $25/MWh for wind. This upward pressure remains steady today; active greenfield bid medians on CleanTrade have reached $53/MWh for wind and $54/MWh for solar.
- Changing grid mixes are directly altering project value. As rapid renewable penetration increasingly cannibalizes wholesale power prices during peak generation hours, a contract’s true commercial worth is driven by wind and solar project value. Depending on the region, these shifting grid dynamics can impact wind and solar project value both positively and negatively, which in turn heavily influences executed PPA prices.
- A massive re-contracting transition is underway as a wave of early wind and solar projects near the end of their original PPAs. We project that 14% of current contracts will expire by the end of 2028, skyrocketing to over 50% by 2035. This shift is driving a surge in secondary market liquidity as operational assets seek new hedges against volatile merchant prices.
