Our July 16th webinar brought together experts from Resurety and S&P Global Energy to unpack the future of PPA pricing. 

Scroll to access the webinar replay and to receive a complimentary copy of our Q1 State of the Market for Clean Power Offtake report. 

For nearly two decades, U.S. electricity consumption remained flat. That era has come to an end. Rapid load additions from data centers and industrial electrification are reshaping the power grid, forcing developers, buyers, and investors to navigate an increasingly dynamic pricing landscape. 

In our recent webinar, Resurety’s Irina Gumennik (Director, Expert Services) and Mark O’Brien (Senior Director, Power Markets) came together with forecasting and price assessment experts from S&P Global Energy to address a central question: “Energy demand is rising, but is the price of PPAs?”

Supply vs. demand: A historical shift in power markets

Evaluating long-term power and PPA pricing trends requires stepping back to examine core fundamental drivers. After a decade (2014-2024) of flat 0.2% annual growth, S&P Global’s base forecast projects U.S power demand will jump 2.5% annually between 2026 and 2035—adding the equivalent of ISO New England’s total grid capacity in a single year. Data centers drive over half of this growth, bringing 89 TWh in 2026 and 2027 alone.

To meet this surge, a record 74 GW of new capacity is scheduled to come online in 2026. However, regional grid dynamics vary:

ERCOT (Texas): Developers are racing to build solar and battery storage before tax credits expire. Facing a sharp post-2029 drop in planned projects, ERCOT is using initiatives like DRRS to incentivize fast-acting generation and maintain grid reliability. 

PJM (Mid-Atlantic/Midwest): PJM faces dual pressure: meeting new data center load while replacing retiring coal units. With capacity auctions hitting price caps, PJM introduced Surplus Interconnection rules to fast-track battery retrofits at existing sites. Mark O’Brien highlighted that the rise of solar growth will soon push solar-plus-storage to overtake coal as PJM’s third-largest power source. 

MISO & SPP: Coal fleet will decline at an average of about 2.3 gigawatts per year. High demand and aggressive state-level clean energy targets are driving strong demand for solar and gas replacement capacity.

Is the price of PPAs rising?

Long-term, yes. But in the short-term, prices aren't rising as much as you might expect.

While long-term forecasts show steady upward pressure from queue delays and surging load, near-term PPA prices remain surprisingly muted. A massive wave of solar and battery storage projects rushing online to beat federal tax credits is flooding markets, creating a near-term surplus of supply, and keeping short-term prices grounded. 

Looking strictly at the baseline price misses the bigger story: how these deals are actually structured. As Irina Gumennik, Director, Expert Services, puts it, “It’s not about that headline dollar amount anymore. Risk has a price as well that needs to be a part of the conversation.” 

Marie-Louise du Bois, Global Director of Environmental Markets Pricing at S&P Global added on by emphasizing that buyers and sellers are pivoting toward risk allocation — building specific terms into contracts to manage grid congestion, policy shifts, and price swings.

Three key innovations shaping modern PPAs

To adapt to market volatility, buyers and developers are shifting away from rigid, legacy contracting models:

1. Shorter contract terms: Buyers gain portfolio flexibility to adapt to evolving technology, corporate sustainability strategies, and shifting carbon accounting rules, while developers avoid locking into long-term discount rates. 

2. Hybrid PPAs (solar + storage): Pairing solar with batteries combats midday price cannibalization, allowing projects to store cheap daytime energy and sell it during high-value evening hours. 

3. Alternative fuel structures: Corporates are using PPAs for nuclear life extensions, while tech companies evaluate BTM gas or storage as a temporary bridge to get data centers online faster. 

As power markets become more volatile, relying on historical assumptions and static spreadsheets introduces serious risk. Resurety and S&P Global Commodity Insights partner to deliver live PPA price assessments, valuation models, and transaction data directly to clean energy professionals. 

This webinar contains insight from our State of the Market for Clean Power Offtake - Q2 report. Resurety’s Market Intelligence reports are only available to CleanSight Reports subscribers. Preview a complimentary copy of our Q1 report below, or reach out to [email protected] for full access to our Reports offering.