Why We Nailed Our July ERCOT Price Forecast

September 16, 2025

(When Others Thought We’d Miss)

Authored by Son Phan, Research Scientist, REsurety

At REsurety, our research and power markets team is dedicated to modeling energy prices, project generation, and emissions impact. The team is interdisciplinary: we have experts in power markets, statistics & analytics, meteorology, and grid operations.

Why do we need such a deep bench of experts? Because forecasting electricity prices is notoriously complex. These values determine what projects get built, sold, and invested in – months before we’ll know whether the wind will blow or the sun will shine. It’s high stakes, and our goal at REsurety is accuracy.

If you’re an energy buyer, we know better forecasts mean better budgets – helping you to engage internal stakeholders, build confidence in your portfolio strategy, and plan for future investments.

If you’re an investor, better forecasts help reduce uncertainty around whether projects will hit their rate of return or lead to stable, long-term yields.

And if you’re a trader, credible data means hedge providers can more accurately price offtake agreements. Improved pricing means better risk management with an eye towards the bottom line.

With so much in play, we take this job very seriously, and invest resources internally to focus on providing the analytics our clean energy customers need to lead. Often, it pays off: in July, for example, REsurety predicted ERCOT prices in the mid-$30s per MWh – and we were only off by one dollar. That doesn’t seem all that impressive unless you compare to market forwards: this spring, when we made this prediction, the market forecast predicted prices around $60/MWh – double actuals. Without REsurety data, buyers may have assumed twice what they received in revenue.

So, how were our forecasts that accurate? It boils down to our unique approach and our commitment to a weather sensitive, fundamentals-based model.

How We Optimize Our Models: Customer-First Thinking

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