What makes our tools the best for renewable energy decision-makers?

  • Our products and services are backed up by best-in-class data from publicly available data and proprietary sources. We then add value to this data through our in-house models.

  • We focus on modeling generation at the hourly level to capture the diurnal and seasonal patterns of solar and wind generation.

  • Our price prediction system is designed to account for the relationships between weather, generation, market fundamentals, and price to accurately model revenue.

Generation & Price Modeling

Our generation modeling methodology captures the impact of a variety of elements on generation patterns. We start with long-term modeled weather data from third-party sources. We then improve upon those datasets by combining them with proprietary observations and in-house models. Multiple data sources and models are combined to form an ensemble that captures a large range of potential weather outcomes.

Our price modeling system uses machine learning to add various power pricing scenarios and weather conditions to forward power market curves. Other inputs like renewable penetration in the grid, energy demand, and gas prices are layered into the model to inform forecasts.

Shape Modeling

With generation and price modeling, we can determine the likely shape of a project. Shape describes the value of a project’s wind or solar generation relative to the average price of power, taking into account the relationship between when the project is producing and whether prices are usually high or low during that time. Shape is impacted by seasonal and diurnal correlations between generation and price, hourly market conditions, and the rate of renewable energy penetration in the market.

Our Team of Experts

REsurety’s products and services are made possible through our in-house expertise, including a power markets and atmospheric science research team. Read our white papers, reports, and more for insights and analysis regarding renewable energy markets.

Friends Don’t Let Friends Use 8760s…at least not for revenue modeling

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Authored by Jennifer Newman, Vice President of Atmospheric Science Research, REsurety White Paper Executive Summary An “8760” (sometimes known as a “typical meteorological year,” or “TMY”) is a year-long hourly time series of expected generation for a wind or solar project. As the name implies, an 8760 contains generation values for all 8,760 hours of… Read more »

Locational Marginal Emissions: A Force Multiplier for the Carbon Impact of Clean Energy Programs

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EXCERPT: While the impressive growth in clean energy development is an encouraging signal that we can tackle the harms of greenhouse gases and climate change, we should remember that clean energy deployment itself is not the ultimate goal. Tracking environmental goals in traditional units of MWh of clean energy is an outdated and imprecise approach… Read more »

Risk Mitigation for Corporate Renewable PPAs

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REsurety contributes a chapter on how to manage risk in virtual PPAs through Volume Firming Agreements in this new report by RE-Source, a joint platform of WindEurope, SolarPower Europe, the RE100, and the World Business Council for Sustainable Development. EXCERPT: Corporates have a variety of different drivers for looking to source power from renewables, but the… Read more »

 The “P99 Hedge” That Wasn’t – Updated with 2018-2019 Data

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REsurety and Energy GPS have joined forces again to empirically analyze how wind farms with P99 Hedges would have fared in ERCOT in the record-setting 2018-2019 period.  EXCERPT: In the spring of 2018, REsurety and Energy GPS co-authored a white paper¹ describing the source and impact of a common error in forecasting hedged wind farm… Read more »

Accounting Primer for C&I Renewable Energy Buyers

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For C&I Buyers looking to mitigate risks in their PPAs, CohnReznick provides new accounting guidance on Volume Firming Agreements and Settlement Guarantee Agreements in a whitepaper co-published with REsurety. EXCERPT An important consideration for Buyers is how these contracts, or group of contracts, will be assessed for accounting purposes. Like a traditional vPPA, contracts like… Read more »

Proxy Generation PPAs

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Orrick, Microsoft and REsurety describe the Proxy Generation PPA: what it is and why it represents a necessary evolution of the corporate clean energy buyer’s contract. EXCERPT Beginning as novelty transactions dominated by socially conscious “tech” companies, corporate & industrial (C&I) renewable energy purchases now exert tremendous pull in the electricity market. Since 2013 and in… Read more »

The “P99 Hedge” That Wasn’t

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REsurety and Energy GPS partnered to bring you The “P99 Hedge” That Wasn’t, an empirical analysis of how wind farms with fixed volume swaps (also known as P99 Hedges or “Bank Hedges”) may be underestimating the impact of hourly mismatches in their financial model. Our analysis demonstrates that the commonly used modeling method (which ignores… Read more »